GOLD

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above 11797-837 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $382.5 of this. We held an exhaustion area within this at 12756-690 with a 12746 low and have rallied $291.6. We held another exhaustion area within this at 14160-137 with a 14121 low and rallied $154.1. The break above 13470 projects this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $219.2 of this so far. These are on hold. Keep in mind that within those bullish projections we have possible macro exhaustion areas above for this macro bullish correction (if it is a correction) against the move down from 19114 in September of 2011 that come in at the 15306-810 general area, and 17264 area. We have rejected out of the lower level a third time now with a 15662 high for $120, but this is now on hold as well. Decent trade above 15135-40 will project this upward $66 (+); but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure to come in. 

On a short-term basis: On 11/5 we left a short-term bearish reversal above which warned of renewed pressure, possibly for days. We have seen $37.5 from the close. This is on hold. We have seen $21.3 of the short covering warned about from Tuesday’s close, and may yet see more. Decent trade back below the bottom of the gap at 14569 will negate the short-term short covering bias and reestablish bearishness (a maintained gap lower will reestablish it as well). Trade back above 14808-31 should bring in further short covering.