GOLD

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above 11797-837 warned of short covering. We have seen $165.9 of this.  This is on hold. The decent break back below 12846-47 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $15.6 of the pressure we are looking for below.   The decent break below 12737-46 put this below a pattern that projects this downward $33 minimum, $110 (+) maximum. However, there is an area of possible exhaustion for the move down from 13560 that comes in at 12710-623 that I said has the potential to turn this back around to the upside. We held it on 4/23 and again on 5/2 with a 12673 low and rallied $36.9 before rolling over into the current bearish projections. We tested it again yesterday with a 12690 low before short covering. This general macro area of exhaustion must hold at 12689-607 in order for the bull thrust from 11893 on 8/16/18 to remain intact—otherwise this could head a good deal lower to attain more of the bearish projections. If we break back above the 12742-44 breakdown line decently, I would look for decent short covering to come in, likely for days. I said on Friday that on the week this went out weak and poised for continued lower trade this week. We have seen $6.7 of this so far. 

On a short-term basis: The decent trade below 12874-85 (+.4 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $18.4 of the $14 (+) we are looking for below. The decent trade below 12765 (-.4 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) brought in $7.5 of the continued pressure warned about below before short covering off the low. A maintained gap higher will leave a short-term bullish reversal below that will also warn of decent short covering, likely for days.