GOLD

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above 11797-837 warned of short covering. We have seen $165.9 of this.  This has been on hold since March 1st but will be taken OFF hold with a decent penetration above 12892-94 (-.5 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am); a decent break above which should bring in decent renewed strength, likely for days. If we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent pressure to come in. There was an area of possible exhaustion for this move down from 13560 that came in at 12710-623 that I said we will have to contend with that has the potential to turn this back around to the upside. We held it on 4/23 with a 12679 low and rallied $23 before rolling over and testing it again on 5/2 with a 12673 low and rallying $25.5. Today has a good likelihood of being a range expansion day, and this week has a good likelihood of being a range expansion week. 

On a short-term basis: The decent trade above 12841 (-.4 of a tic per/hour) brought in $8.7 of the $7.5 minimum, $18 (+) maximum we are looking for above before holding the 12928 (-.5 of at tic per/hour) line and rolling over. This will come in at 12810 (-.4 of a tic per/hour starting at 8:20am). Decent failure back below should bring in decent renewed pressure. Decent trade below 12833-39 (+.4 of at tic per/hour starting at 8:20am) will project this downward $7.5 minimum, $12.5 (+) maximum; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in.