GOLD

On a macro basis: We broke above a well-formed macro line in the week of 8/7 that came in at 12629. The break above here projects this upward $170 minimum, $489 (+) maximum—the maximum to be attained likely within 9-12 months. However, this has been on hold since we broke below the formation mentioned below. This line will come in at 12252 this week. A macro solid failure below it will warn of significant pressure in the weeks ahead. The solid trade below 12736-33 projects this downward $19 minimum, $97 (+) maximum based off a well-formed formation. We saw $28.9 of this before being put on hold. This will come in at 12743 today. If we break back above solidly, look for solid short covering to come in, likely back toward 13030 (+); and a resumption of the macro bull call. 

On a short-term basis:  We broke above the steep minor line at 12486-96 (-3 tics (30 cents) per/hour) yesterday, which warned of short covering. However, we have seen little follow-through and the market has pulled back down to test the line since yesterday and even taken out Friday’s lows in the process.  The formation is distorted at this point, with the projection dissipated, but it still gives a short covering warning bias until we break back below it decently—at which point I would resume the bear call from above. This will come in at 12413-01 (-3 tics (30 cents) per/hour starting at 8:20am). 

NOTE: I only post these once a week or so, but they are updated twice daily for my clients, so if there is some disconnect between posts, that is why. But I post these to give an idea of the magnitude of calls.