- (Ask) premiums for freshly minted bars in Singapore and Bangkok soared to record highs, signalling strong buying activities towards the end of the week
- As gold price rallies towards the end of the week, Singapore and Bangkok markets saw an increase in profit taking activities for recirculated kilobars
- Shanghai gold fell sharply from a premium to a discount on Thursday; SHAUPM notches new record high?
- Gold nears record-high levels on fresh haven demand after President Trump signed orders proposing new levies for each country
- For the week ending February 14, 2025, physical gold kilobar ask (sell) premiums averaged $2.87/oz in Singapore, $1.65/oz in Hong Kong, and $2.36/oz in Bangkok.*
- Newly minted gold kilobar ask premiums surged by $0.57/oz (+24.8%) in Singapore and $0.37/oz (+18.6%) in Bangkok, driven by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff updates and growing expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing. Meanwhile, Hong Kong premiums declined by $0.07/oz (-4.1%) as traders adopted a cautious stance, with prices hovering near record highs.
- Bid (buy-back) prices for recirculated kilobars in Singapore and Bangkok fell to a record-low discount against international gold prices on February 14, 2025, marking the second consecutive week of profit-taking activity, as traders likely offloaded holdings near historic highs.
- LBMA PM gold prices climbed from $2,904.45/oz on February 10 (Monday) to a new high of $2,915.30/oz on February 13, reflecting a $10.85/oz (+0.4%) gain. As of now, gold is trading at approximately $2,935/oz, just shy of its all-time high of $2,943/oz.
- Domestic gold prices in India soared to a record high of ?86,360/10g on Tuesday, February 11, dampening demand and prompting local dealers to offer discounts of $10–$24/oz (inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies) below international prices. Jewellers reported a sharp decline in demand, down 70–80%, despite the ongoing wedding season, as rising prices deterred buyers. The rally was fuelled by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff policies. By Thursday, domestic gold traded at a discount of ?523.51/10g, narrowing from ?667.01/10g on Monday.
- Meanwhile, India and the U.S. reached a series of trade agreements just hours after Trump unveiled a roadmap for reciprocal tariffs on countries that impose duties on U.S. imports. As part of the deal, India agreed to increase its U.S. energy purchases from $15 billion to $25 billion and procure additional defence equipment. Additionally, India aims to negotiate lower tariffs on select U.S. agricultural products by fall 2025 to help reduce the $45.6 billion U.S. trade deficit with India. Trump also urged India to increase efforts in curbing unauthorized immigration. In the currency market, the USD/INR pair remains above 86.5, nearing 86.7 during the Asian session today.
- Gold demand in Istanbul remained strong despite high prices, with local premiums ranging from $7.50 to $33.00 per ounce above international prices. As of February 13, gold in Istanbul traded at approximately $2,940/oz.
- Meanwhile, the Turkish lira plummeted to a record low against the U.S. dollar, surpassing 36 lira per dollar, marking a nearly 2% decline since the start of the year. The drop was driven by President Trump’s tariff policies, which boosted demand for the dollar, along with additional pressure from the Turkish central bank’s decision to withhold taxes on deposits and funds to support its budget.
- Discounts on Shanghai gold narrowed to -USD 1.83/oz on Thursday from -USD 10.07/oz at the start of the week, sharply reversing from a premium of USD 12.35/oz on Wednesday, pointing to a pullback in demand as local gold prices reached a new record high this week.?
- The Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) surged to a new record high on Friday, rising to CNY 686.99/g from CNY 677.64/g at the start of the week, mirroring international gold’s rally to new record highs this week. ? ? ? ?
- USD/CNY fell to a one-week low, trading around ~7.2737 at the time of writing, comfortably below the upper bound of its daily range (~7.3140) amid broad dollar weakness. Sentiment towards the yuan likely improved following Chinese policymakers' announcement of measures to boost domestic consumption and maintain currency stability. ?
- For further details on the former, Chinese policymakers announced plans to stimulate domestic demand by supporting “reasonable wage growth, expanding channels for property income, and enhancing consumption capacity” in addition to expanding consumer goods trade-in program, though further details were not provided.?
- Furthermore, Chinese policymakers announced a pilot program that allows the nation’s top insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets in gold, effective February 7.
- Gold is ~$8 firmer at ~$2,936/oz at writing, operating just below its February 11 record high ($2,942.68/oz), extending its two-day streak of gains, firmly on track for a seventh consecutive weekly advance. The move higher in the yellow metal was likely supported by fresh haven demand arising from further intensification of Trump’s tariff-matters amid a decline in the dollar to near three-week lows.?
- On Monday, gold rose by ~$46 to close higher at ~$2,908/oz despite a stronger dollar, following the imposition of a 25% tariff on all US imports of aluminum and steel, with Canada, Brazil and Mexico hit the hardest as key suppliers of US steel. In addition to safe haven demand, Monday’s gains were likely supported by news that China approved a pilot program allowing its top insurers to invest in gold for the first time, adding further momentum to gold’s rally.
- The yellow metal closed Tuesday lower, falling by ~$9 to settle at ~$2,899/oz after reaching a new record high ($2,942.68/oz) before retreating in modest fashion. The decline in gold had come alongside a downtick in the dollar, following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks in his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress, reiterating that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. Addressing the rise in long-term US rates, he noted that it is driven by factors unrelated to the Fed such as higher Treasury supply – an area of greater relevance after US Treasury Sec Bessent previously stated that Trump wants to bring 10-year Treasury yields down.?
- The next day, gold edged higher by ~$6 to close higher at ~$2,903/oz, reversing earlier losses despite the hotter-than-expected US CPI print (+0.4% MoM vs BBG median +0.3% MoM; Dec +0.2% MoM) for January amid a surge in US real yields to a two-week high. Gains in the inflation print fuelled concerns over sticky price pressures in the US, as market participants trimmed their rate cut expectations to just one 25bps rate cut in 2025, down from even odds of a second 25bp rate cuts.?
- The yellow metal advanced further by ~$25 to ~$2,928/oz on Thursday, after Trump signed orders directing the USTR and Commerce Sec. to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis. The move higher had also come alongside a drop in the dollar, after US PPI for January report surprised to the upside, adding to expectations for more than one 25bp rate cuts in 2025.?
* KIS gold ask (sell) premiums reflect the average ask premiums over spot reported by market participants for each location.
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