- (Ask) premiums for freshly minted bars continued to rise in Singapore and Bangkok, but fell in Hong Kong
- Shanghai gold prices shifted between discounts and premiums, but settled at a discount on Thursday; SHAUPM reached a new record high on Friday
- Gold climbed to a new record high on Thursday, supported by fresh haven demand from heightened geopolitical uncertainties?
- For the week ending February 21, 2025, physical gold kilobar ask (sell) premiums averaged $2.98/oz in Singapore, $1.97/oz in Hong Kong, and $2.28/oz in Bangkok.*
- In Singapore, newly minted kilobar premiums rose $0.10/oz (+3.5% WoW) to a three-year high of $3.00/oz, driven by strong demand, particularly from New York, where gold exports surged to a near three-year high. Singapore shipped 11 tonnes to the U.S. last month, up 27% MoM—the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Bangkok premiums climbed $0.33/oz (+20.0% WoW), while Hong Kong premiums declined by $0.08/oz (-3.4% WoW).
- Meanwhile, bid (buy-back) prices for recirculated kilobars in Hong Kong slipped to a -$6.42/oz discount against international prices, as investors held back on selling, anticipating another potential all-time high in gold prices.
- LBMA PM gold prices ended the week higher at $2,932.05/oz on Friday, up from $2,900.55/oz at the start of the week. The price narrowed from its fresh record high of $2,936.85/oz set on Thursday (Feb 19).
- Domestic gold prices in India rose from ?85737.05/10g on Monday to close Thursday higher at ?8,7194.23/10g, rising alongside international gold’s rally this week. The measure surged to a record high of ?8,7214.38/10g on Thursday (Feb 19). Elevated gold prices had dampened jewellery demand, with local dealers seen offering discounts between $30/oz to $50/oz (inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies) below international prices this week.?
- Despite sluggish jewellery sales, investment demand remained strong, with gold ETF inflows in January surging to INR37.5bn (~US$435mn), nearly four times the past year's monthly average. The rise was likely driven by investors diversifying amid equity market sell-offs. Additionally, the launch of the 360 ONE Gold ETF this month brought India's total gold ETFs to 19.
- Turning to Turkey, premiums on Turkish gold closed the week higher at $37.47/oz on Thursday from $29.85/oz at the start of the week, but narrowed from Wednesday’s peak of $72.64/oz. As of February 20, the reference price of Turkish gold stands at $2,990.52/oz.?
- Discounts on Shanghai gold narrowed to -USD0.41/oz on Thursday from -USD3.13/oz at the start of the week. Shanghai gold discounts narrowed to -$0.41/oz on Thursday from -$3.13/oz at the start of the week. The premium briefly surged to $6.42/oz on Tuesday before swinging to a -$12.22/oz discount the next day. ??
- The Shanghai Gold Benchmark PM (SHAUPM) closed the week higher at CNY683.66/g on Friday from CNY672.02/g at the start of the week. Gains in the benchmark mirrored international gold’s climb to fresh all-time high levels, with the measure reaching a new record high of CNY 688.76/g on Thursday.? ? ? ??
- USD/CNY completed a round trip this week, reaching ~7.2478, as the pair erased earlier gains and returned to Monday’s levels amid continued dollar softness. Sentiment toward the yuan improved after U.S. President Trump suggested that a new trade deal with China is still 'possible' and hinted at a potential visit from Chinese President Xi, though without a specified timeline, easing some tariff concerns. ? ?
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to defend yuan stability by keeping its 1-year (3.1%) and 5-year (3.6%) Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month.
- Gold deals ~$16 softer to operate near a two-day low at ~$2,922/oz at writing, trimming nearly half of Tuesday’s ~$37 gains amid an uptick in the dollar. The precious metal remains on track to close higher for an eighth straight week, with the move higher supported by a rise in haven demand from Trump’s tariff related matters despite fluctuations in the dollar and shifts in expectations around the Fed’s rate cuts this year.?
- On Monday, gold rose by ~$16 to close at ~$2,289/oz, likely driven by increased haven demand. The move followed European leaders' February 15 announcement of an 'emergency' summit scheduled for Monday (February 17) in response to President Trump’s decision to pursue peace negotiations with Russia over the Ukraine conflict, notably excluding European and Ukrainian leaders.
- Gold climbed ~$36 to settle at ~$2,935/oz on Tuesday, driven by heightened geopolitical uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict, boosting safe haven demand. Talks between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian FM Lavrov were described as 'very good,' with President Trump 'probably' meeting Russian President Putin by the end of the month. In response, sources reported that the EU is considering a defense package worth up to €700 billion for Ukraine, adding to uncertainty over the conflict’s outcome. On US tariff matters, Trump announced plans to impose tariffs “of 25% and higher” on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an announcement possibly coming by April 2. ?
- The next day, gold settled lower at ~$2,933/oz, retreating from a fresh record high ($2,947.08/oz) notched earlier in the session, with focus in the space centered around geopolitical developments. On Russia-Ukraine matters, US-Russia engagement suggests that the US may be pressuring Ukraine into a peace deal, with President Trump stating that Ukrainians 'better move fast' to secure an agreement or risk 'not having a country left". While the EU's response remains uncertain, any meaningful action that could result in any meaningful change to the conflict’s outcome isn’t expected until at least the German election has concluded (due Feb 23).?
- Turning to Fed rate cut, Thursday’s Fedspeak reflected caution among Fed officials regarding disinflation progress, with some highlighting the need for patience on the pace of rate cuts – nothing by way of fresh views.
* KIS gold ask (sell) premiums reflect the average ask premiums over spot reported by market participants for each location.
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