GOLD 1/13/20

On a macro basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break back above 11797-837 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $429.6 of this.  We held an exhaustion area within this at 12756-690 with a 12746 low and have rallied $338.7. We held another exhaustion area within this at 14160-137 with a 14121 low and rallied $201.2. The break above 13470 projects this upward $80 minimum, $320 (+) maximum. We have attained $266.3 of this so far. The decent trade above 14839-43 projects this upward $20 minimum, $65 (+) maximum based off of a well-formed formation. We have seen $129 of this so far, and $131.8 from the more aggressive drawing at 14815. The above bullish formations are on hold. Wednesday’s close and Thursday’s decent penetration below 15536 warn we are likely starting into a macro bearish correction against the move up from 11816. Although we did not settle below 15524 on the week, the week itself still went out fairly bearish, and a settle below here this week should give added credence.  

On a medium-term basis: We were in a correction against the move up from 12923 on 5/2/19 to 15717 on 9/4/19. We held an exhaustion area at 14650-554 with a 14531 low on 11/12 and have rallied $160.2 into the likely final stretch of a bull trend. This may now be complete and is on hold. 

On a short-term basis: The decent trade above 14619 (-1.3 tics per/hour) warned of decent renewed strength. We have seen $151.4 of this. The decent trade above 14701 (-.7 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $143.2 of the strength we are looking for above. The decent trade above 14944-45 projects this upward $25 (+). We have seen $118.8 of this so far. The above bullish formations are on hold. The decent trade below 15570 now projects this downward $56 (+) but can withstand $14.1 of violation and remain valid. We have seen $16 of this so far.  On a very short timeframe we held exhaustion at 15409-366 with a 15410 low and rallied $21.2, before (if) resuming lower trade—which it looks like we are starting to see with a $9.6 lower call as of 5:19am. In the Post Market Synopsis, I warned of renewed pressure below 15575—we have seen $10.5 of this so far.