God Parity in Electricity Supply

Private and Corporate Utilities : Newsletter 36, by David Lipschitz BSc (Honours) MBA

Graph Colours: Red is homeowner kWh buying at 1200 kWh per month. Blue is Eskom's kWh selling price.?Purple is what homeowners should pay (the purple line is less than the red line because of cross-subsidies). The green dotted line is what the homeowner should pay if electricity is only increased by inflation. The green solid line is the Net Metering without battery line, cost of production. The orange descending line is the approximate production cost, including batteries (without net metering). I only added the orange line in 2022, and I knew the battery with PV and Inverter / Charge cost in 2008, as that is when I installed my first system. You can see that homeowners hit God Parity without batteries in 2017 and, with a predicted 100% increase in the next year, will hit God Parity, including batteries in 2023. Even a 38% increase will get us to God Parity next year. Still, homeowners in South Africa will be getting anything between 50% and 400% increases in electricity costs next year unless we decide it's time to change things. I started changing in 1999. How long will it take for corporates and governments to take me seriously? The world does not need to be in the crises it finds itself in today. IMHO, it has been using the wrong advisors.

David Lipschitz, bang on target on 26th November 2014. In 2017 we were at grid parity without batteries. Now we (everyone) is at grid parity, including batteries. Many are now at that elusive moment of God Parity, where we can make our energy cheaper than Eskom's manufacturing (selling) price at their power stations!!

And remember that the electricity act and the municipal law call for municipalities to source products from their cheapest and most reliable suppliers - who now include any person with a roof or a big enough garden (or field).

The following was written by me on 26th November 2014:

"I've been trying for a long time to get the government to see that. Actually, they won't lose any revenue by allowing Embedded (homeowner) Generation, but they won't listen, so month by month, South Africa has less electricity and more unemployment. I've had meetings with the DA, ACDP, IFP and ANC, all up to advisors who advise the cabinet.

"But we are getting to a point where everyone, including people who live in shacks, can make their own electricity economically without using Eskom and then there will be a Tipping Point. I believe this is less than 3 years away.

"But it will be a huge pity because people will make their own electricity and the excess which could have been sold to the grid, not just during the day, but also at night, assuming we could have Time of Use Tariffs, will be wasted, and this "waste" could completely change South Africa."

Back to 2022, November 26th. You're thinking about "the poor"?

I wrote the following back in 2014. It is even more applicable now (Henri, especially for you, my friend).

1) the "poor" spend up to 5 times as much per kWh as the rich, i.e. the ones who aren't connected to a grid and use generators.

2)?many "poor" people actually buy a huge amount of electricity as they have "backyarders" to whom they sell electricity, so if these people can make electricity cheaper than they can buy it, they will do so and perhaps even give a discount to their clients.

3) the "poor" in South Africa get huge government grants, but they are sick of this, as seen in the recent violence along our roads and in other parts of South Africa. They would rather work. And when they can make their own electricity and become "prosumers" and make everything they need, they will do this. They aren't stupid. Just uneducated. "Uneducated" in the way "our" world operates. But they have a huge amount to contribute, and they will do so.