Goals and the Philosophy of Title Fights
This year, 2018 makes it 28 years that the final match of world soccer showpiece, event the FIFA World Cup has ceased to be a festival of goals, and thanks in large measure to the apparent scientific approach of the Germans (first as West Germany, and then as a unified Germany from 1990 onwards) after two successive defeat at the final of the Mundial.
This discussion covers the years for which I have followed the FIFA World Cup as a tournament. While I watched Mexico ’86 final live, I saw a recorded version of the final match of Espana ‘82 sometime in 1987. Hence final matches played 1978 or earlier are out of scope. The two finals played in the 1980s (’82 and ‘86) produced a total of 9 goals or 4.5 per match while the three played during the 1990s (Italia ’90, USA ’94, and France ’98) produced a total of 4 goals or 1.33 per match. The two finals played in the 2000s (Korea Japan 2002, and Germany 2006) produced a total of 4 goals or an average of 2 goals per match. An improvement you would say! But between 2010 and 2014, the two finals produced a total of 2 goals, an average of 1. So far the lowest ever.
Now to the analysis and the German factor. After losing two consecutive World Cup finals in 1982 (1-3 to Italy) and 1986 (2-3 to Argentina), the Germans apparently discovered that for them, the key to winning the World Cup is not so much about scoring goals (emphasis on plural) but more about not conceding (also known as watching your back, your vital rear, the defence line). In the two finals when they ended runners up, the Germans had scored a total of 3 goals. This translates to an average of 1.5 goals per match, which by the way, is more than what you need to win if you don’t concede a goal! Unfortunately, they had conceded 3 goals on each occasion. On average, this is double what they scored.
Hence, the lesson going into the Italia ’90 final was clear: don’t concede. Even if you don’t score, you still stay in the game. And for 85 minutes until the Germans got awarded a penalty in that July 8 final against Argentina, they simply emphasised a clean slate above a harvest of goals. Conceding a goal while trying to score was a risk the Germanys could not afford to take and they never took that risk. Afterall, he who endures to the end shall be saved, says the Holy Book.
And so when Andreas Brehme tucked in the spot-kick with five minutes of regulation time left, the German strategy had worked. And did Franz Beckenbauer’s team go out to “consolidate the win”? No. That would be naive. They retreated, stayed the course and reverted to the philosophy of the occasion: keep a clean slate.
Fast forward to 1994, the Brazil-Italy final was even drier: no single goal in both regulation and extra time, whether open play or spot-kick. The 1998 final may look like an exception. Yet the side that opened its rear trying to take the lead, and later to even scores kept conceding, until recovery became important . After France ’98, all teams that did not concede a goal during the match have gone on to win the trophy. Only once did the winner (Italy in 2006) concede any goal in 120 minutes.
After 1990, it appears any team that qualifies for the final already understands the key: don’t concede and you could be World Champions. So both teams not only defend well. Generally, they play with utmost care as against the “free-flowing, and sometimes reckless attacking” we saw in 1982 and 1986. Even the three prior finals from the 1970s all produced 12 goals in total for an average of 4 goals: (Mexico ’70 (5) Germany ’74 (3) and Argentina ’78 (4).
Both the data and style of play strongly suggest that the 1990 final was a clear turning point. From 1990, the World Cup final match is (for the teams involved, players and coaches) no longer just another football match: it is a title fight, and title fights are undertaken with a different mind-set, a different set of soft rules, and a different set of tactical approaches and strategic objectives than fights that give you the right to contend for the title. A title fight is not just art. It also involves philosophy and science. A title fight is not an everyday fight.
As you progress in 2018, what are your title fights? And what is your strategy to manage risk and win?
From all of us at Fritova I Economics (Ifeoma, Ibiyemi, Oyeshina, Ridwan, Moses, and myself), we wish you a wonderful and crowning year, full of God's goodness and wisdom.