Is it a 'Go' - 'No Go' for this experiment

Among this weeks interesting things to read, I came across this recent debate on whether genetically modified mosquito (GMO) should be released in Florida to control the growth of non-native Aedes aegypti mosquito. I found it to be a really interesting topic and without getting too carried away by the emotions, I thought of analyzing the problem in a more structured way.

Like we do in many business problems, I would like to go in with the hypothesis that releasing the GMO is a good idea. For this hypothesis to be true, it would be necessary for the following 4 conditions to be true:

1. The proposal of releasing GMO mosquito is actually more effective than other available alternatives in meeting the objective of controlling the growth of non-native mosquito.
2. The complete process is a safe process andwould have no impact on humans.
3. There is no adverse and indirect effect on nature because of this change
4. The secondary risks associated with this project can be mitigated.

Lets take each of them and see if we can make some sense out of it. Regarding the first factor, it would be interesting to compare this option with the other possible alternatives to understand effectiveness as well as implications from a cost and time perspective. I see 4 alternatives - a) Pesticides which is always a bad thing to have in excess b) Introducing other organisms that can control the mosquito populations (might be Frogs, insects, bats) c) Machines and appliances that could do the job d) Not doing anything. Having grown up in a country where mosquito and malaria is a national issue, I know how in-effective the 2nd and 3rd option could be (in terms of cost, time to cause a change and actually causing any dent to the mosquito population). So based on what I am reading currently I would believe that this proposal should definitely be considered on the table since it much effective than all the 4 alternatives.

Looking into the 2nd factor, I would be interested to know how proven is this process and who has validated it - Which agency or scientific institute has gone through the claims and given them its approval. Knowing that the same experiment has been successfully completed in Brazil, the second question is what were the assumptions in that study that need not necessarily be same in case of Florida. Is there something to do with the geography or climate? Are there any learning from past study on introduction of GMO that we can learn from. One example that comes to my mind is that of genetically modified fishes threatening the existence of native fishes in Lake Michigan. Is that something we can look into to understand the situation better. Also I would be interested to know from an operational stand point whether there is any opportunity to pilot this project rather than going all-out. But all said and done, these are the easier challenges. It is all about verification and getting more data points - Something that I believe an organization like FDA would definitely dive into.

The 3rd factor is the one which is more abstract as well as challenging - 'Direct and indirect implication on nature. This is were things become cloudy and concepts like ethics and values override business or logical rationales. What happens to the food chain both below and above the level of mosquito. Would it lead to mutation or side effects in creatures that eat these mosquito? The point is who knows and who can predict. But in today's world where humans are continuously eating hormone enhanced meat; where fertilizers and insecticide are basic recipes of agriculture there are many more reasons for alteration in the food chain.

The last point is the risk associated with this project. I see two primary risk - 1) What happens if things don't go as per plan - what is our Plan B. Do we have an antidote that we could bring out if the GMOs behave weirdly. Who pays if there is any litigation or law suit. 2) What is the long term impact on science and bio-technology. Would this adventure cause the explosion of other similar projects. Do we see a solution to the Burmese Python menace in Florida through GMO snakes. Where would these experiments end. Some tough questions which the government and all of us have to answer together - 'Where do we draw the line.'. On the other side, is this going to be the solution for eradicating diseases such as Malaria, dengue.

To summarize, (after openly accepting that I am no scientist or biologist but am just looking at the problem through the lens of a person who loves solving problems) I see this proposal as one no different from a company trying to introduce a new drug. Like in this case, we can scramble for all the possible data however it is always very difficult to understand the long term impact of any new drug. But innovation can come from anywhere and we need to be able to balance the change and weigh the risk. I guess all the rationale logic gets tossed out of the window when the thought of having GMO mosquito buzzing near our ears is what that we can only think of.

All opinions expressed in this are my personal and have nothing to do with the organizations/ institutes that I am involved with.

photo credit: <a >John Tann</a> via <a