Go To 11....Unprecedented Change

If I were to suddenly have a literary diatribe of mine published, I would hope that Where it would appear would be as a result of randomness, a choice made by someone other than me.

How random?

As random as the toss of a dart while being blindfolded…like the monkeys that used to pick stocks for the WSJ - you know the ones - those Portfolio Managing Monkeys known for crushing the Stock Gurus.?What was the inspiration for the Monkey Money Mob Throw? It was the famous line in the book A Random Walk Down Wall Street written by Burton Malkiel.

From InvestmentHome:

In 1988 the WSJ began a contest that was based on Burton Malkiel’s book? A Random Walk Down Wall Street. In the book, the Princeton Professor theorized that "a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts."? The Journal set out to create an entertaining contest to test Malkiel's Monkey theory and give its readers some new investment ideas in the process. Several academic papers have been written about the contest and its implications…..

Being unaware what ever happened to that infamous primate picking practice I had to do some rainforestish research. I was curious not only because that didn't sound very safe, but I was certain that if that were truly the case PETA would have stopped the fact finding finance fiasco years ago.

Remarkably there are no less than several dozen thesis', white papers and case studies from universities around the world digging into this '80s outsourcing monkey movement which many saw as a Portfolio Manager Turnkey Turkey.....

Wait what about using Turkeys?

Even more astonishing were the concerted attempts of producing even better returns by tapping into the deep talent pool that is the Animal Kingdom - even the goldfish & turtles got their shot. The Biggest effort, in size and expense was the Bovine Initiative....

When one looks for answers it inevitably produces more questions. Seeking deepens the questions.

The WSJ abruptly and shockingly ended the annual picking process after 14 years....One Hundred & Sixty Eight Months.....The FACT is (well actually rumor) that within that Boisterous Bollinger Band of Market Mavens ("BBBMM") no study is legit till there's 180 months(15 yrs. I did the math)of data dots to chart (Reddit Cnfms It). I mean what is a Head if you don't have a Shoulder? The study was a mere 12 months short of legitimacy which I am certain led to talk of a conspiracy.

WHAT IF?

Clearly the results began to paint a dire picture of unintended human race consequences. In wondering what happened to those Primates which seemingly must've come straight from the Planet of The Apes.

Was all this was an anomaly or launched by the illuminati. Can you imagine the risk to Darwinism...let alone Capitalism?

The Journal was just one year shy of what would've become a legitimate period of time for the BBBMM to issue their often used rare "Let it be written - Let It Be Done" technical analysis proclamation. What Was It That They (the WSJ) Really Stumbled Upon? We Will Never Know.....

Why is that AH Ha Moment more than a Guttpunch....but is actually like a Hitgroin - which rhymes with BitCoin.14 years happens to also be the Exact Length Of Time Bitcoin has been with us. Coincidence? We think not. Bitcoin Is Dead..Long Live Bitcoin. Lets wait a year folks before any premature proclamations....

I am certain the original intent was being a '90's version of Newspaper (for our younger readers:actual paper) click-bait became a massive Primate Debate. What originally started as tongue and cheek using the meek produced outsized returns endangering the core infrastructure that was the Capital Markets. The Monkey was the Cannon & the dart was the Round Shot that was about to shatter a belief system built up over centuries.

What was learned relative to where or where did the monkeys go?

What I found out in my due diligence digging was that the studies premise of heaving for the sake of rate achieving did not actually involve monkeys.(so said the WSJ post-mortem). The random returns came from the Wall Street Journal's interns. When I envision twenty somethings throwing darts blindfolded I think more of Jordon Belfort rookie broker humility more than a scientific exercise in futility .??

I believe that the truth is that the monkeys were shipped to labor camps. How do I venture with such bizarre conjecture? All I need to do is point to a recent Vice Scoop: HelloFresh Drops Coconut Milk From Thailand Over Monkey Labor Allegations. If you ask me I believe their alibi was to cover an actual lie.

Volume At 11, The Safety Of Randomness & The A.D.D. Malaise

I would prefer randomness as a method of choice for choosing given the dangers inherent in picking. I never wish for anything I say to automatically put me in a belief bucket -? a bucket label ….Right Wing or Left hampers any discussion from the start. Opinions are like things which everyone has but they are often best kept to ourselves. Within the times we are in, even an observation can create consequences which are not only unintended and unprecedented but if misconstrued can end up in one being sued.?

I am not one that picks a side nor do I identify with a place on the line of beliefs …whether I watch CNN, FOX, CNBC, Bloomberg or Nickelodeon is to me absurdly irrelevant in determining whether in your eyes…I am good or bad, a radical or a muse, a rabble rouser?or an irreverent recluse.?

Truth be told my favorite channel is CNBC on silent as I stare at the stock ticker scrolling at the bottom of the screen. Recently I found myself sitting in the lobby of my temporary Marriott abode silently and intently watching my favorite channel and the desk manager queried “ Sir do you need the remote..?” To which? I answered , “ No thank you, this is what I do.”??Sadly being someone stricken yet blessed with acute A.D.D volume is not a necessity to me - the ticker to me is as loud as if the volume was turned to “11”.?

At times I feel like Jason Bourne sitting in the restaurant with a damsel in distress across the table having just been accused of not paying attention....being able to suddenly refute the accusation by reciting every detail in the room while remaining eyes locked in a stare with her. Hence being able to move from a skier at UVM majoring in crashing gates to hitting bids and taking offerings on a trading desk. This may seem like a tidbit of braggadocios but it is a blessing wrapped in a curse....while others constantly plead for me to “pay attention” or politely ask me to “stop talking”?unaware that despite all appearances I am actually engaged more than one can begin to imagine. The struggle of A.D.D. is real and makes for a life of unimaginable adaptation.

Unprecedented Change: Talking Heads, Icebergs & Glaciers

Society finds itself within an era of unprecedented change being forced into a realm of awareness - a void like feeling at its deepest or merely a pondering head scratching urge with an itch which can not be scratched.?

The Talking Heads song Once In A Lifetime pops into my head - the lyrics go:

And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack

And you may find yourself in another part of the world

And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile

And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful wife

And you may ask yourself, "Well, how did I get here?"

Where we are is not unlike other epochs of change brought on by a massive sudden unexpected event - upheavals which brought or wrought a paradigm shift of some kind. These moments created shock waves which rippled throughout the time and created a shift in purpose…some were rallying cries or became slogans while others were a moment on a timeline which was unmistakable and could not be altered, squashed or derailed.

In the past decade there has been a slow creep of a shift - although subtle at first with no set definable beginning, middle or end can most certainly be pointed to as obvious as an iceberg yet as slow moving as its parent the glacier. No I am not talking about the classic Iceberg Of Change Management....nor will I be inserting the classic Iceberg 10% above water 90% below water picture. I am talking about massive, generational....and it can be seen most clearly in the sector which I spend a dozen hours a day immersed in - at the capital markets, wealth management, institutional, single family office and family enterprise level.

In actuality this change is an accumulation of moments which when stacked are like a Jenga game and just like the game as each piece is pulled brings the entire illusion of silent serenity brings it to a point of abrupt change .?

Those pieces, those blocks of time or moments were analogous to jenga wood being removed both slow and abrupt - the part each played in that change cumulatively has brought us from whenever then was to now. As we zoom out the lens in view we can actually string together the genesis of where we find ourselves today.

Is it akin to the old adage of a butterfly flapping its wings becoming a typhoon across society dominating the collective train of thought? No this is different : this is no butterfly…where we find ourselves was not born from a subtle butterfly effect- this change came from so many pieces stacked so high - so high that the disruption we see has to have come from a force with broader more forceful wings…wings more like the ones on Drogon, Rhaegal and Viserion - those of the undeniable unavoidable like forces brought to us by Queen Daenerys Targaryen - the wings of her dragons.

Yearning & Turning Up The Volume:

Here we are - there is a yearning, a need for more.

It is as if there is a void for so many of us which has resulted in seeking. That seeking has taken on many different forms?: physical, intellectual, political, spiritual and the charitable.

It is a list which could fill the page.?

Covid dumped upon us fear, lost lives, a feeling of mortality and vulnerability. It brought Isolation combined with the acceleration of the proliferation of technology leading to even more disconnection and dislocation resulting in an increased awareness of the voids or pieces in our lives we needed to fill. The moment swung a pendulum way to one side resulting in a swing far to the other side.

Adrenaline: Is But A Sign Of The Time

I have a friend that runs a backcountry ski company that provides the gear and guides to ascend Fourteeners only to turn around and ski down. Keep in mind this is not some VR experience which could result in dizziness nor is it a ride at the fair where you must be “this tall to ride”...this is the real deal. You can die.

If you go to my firms website landing page you will see the kind of skiing I mean. (no this is not click bait)

The company had annual revenues in the low six figures for half a decade. Suddenly after Covid revenues hit high six figures and have stayed there….and no this is not the result of a massive increase in annual snowfall nor some brilliant marketing campaign. This is a sign of the wave of seeking for more. For someone that is involved in extreme sports I recognize this. Following Covid you couldn't find a snowmobile to purchase in Colorado & bookings for skydiving exploded. Was this suddenly the result of a Logan Paul post on Instagram, a sudden extreme sports trend or a newly formed death wish cult?

It is nothing but a barometer of where we have found ourselves.??

Why suddenly does someone say to themselves:

Now That I Quit My Job Of 20 Years A Year Before My Pension Vests I'll Try B.A.S.E. Jumping For The First Time. But Wait Before That I'll Use My Business Loan To Buy Dogecoin & Use That To Buy AMC On My Robinhood App.

“Risk-taking is often a necessary prerequisite for starting a new business or launching a new career, and the excitement associated with uncertainty can be a powerful antidote to boredom and even depression. Because dopamine produces a natural high, risk-taking behaviors can help you get a positive mood and a new perspective without the risks associated with drug use.”

Zawn Villines “The Psychology of Risk-Taking” Blog Good Therapy

The massive wings which spread this brought change to the top of the churn and has taken on many different forms. At the corporate level we now have B-Corps, DEI & ESG which many would have never even heard of if we weren't where we are.? Would so many corporations, family offices , endowments and institutions care as much about this if it hadn't first begun at the individual level?

Within Wealth Management all we hear about is how advisors are in danger of losing the next generation - the children of their clients…their children's children. The sector does not understand that the next generation cares about more than the money. If all you have to offer is a financial plan wrapped in ETF’s based on an asset allocation model - there is an APP for that. For certain it is about relationships - there is now a need for deeper and more meaningful ones.

It is remarkable how much the conversations within the business framework now inevitably contain some sort of reference around the boxes which have to be checked, many of which should've been checked long ago. They shouldn't have ever even gotten to the point of becoming a box let alone one which needed to be checked. But now in many regards it's more than checked boxes…..

We are all Jason Bourne at the diner - acutely aware of everything around us, we feel the winds on our face, the Volume is at 11....we do not need to throw a dart to pick what to do...

What Is Our Next Chapter?