GNU: Will we finally see a symphony?

A month before the elections, on the 29th of May, I wrote a post on LinkedIn (https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/orchestra-politics-why-south-african-needs-new-maestros-craig-wing-3x5nf/?trackingId=QumLexnLroc8XdRqNyEnkQ%3D%3D ) ?to explore the dynamics likely to unfold as we entered a new election cycle. At that time, there was no mention or consideration of any form of a government of national unity (GNU). The prevailing expectation was that the ANC would fall below the 50% threshold, which indeed occurred, leading to widespread speculation about an ANC-plus coalition. The pressing question was, who would the "plus" be?

In my opinion piece, I delved into several areas, including the voting behavior of constituents and the necessity for political parties to adopt a more centrist approach rather than positioning themselves strictly on the left or right. I also addressed the fragmentation of the electorate, where various parties engaged in mutual attacks, emphatically declaring, "This is a new South Africa for all, except for [insert political party name here]." While such tactics might energize the party base, they significantly alienate moderates—those undecided voters trying to determine who best represents their interests.

As it turns out, in this election, voter apathy was notably high with a? voter turnout of only 58.57%. A significant number of potential voters chose not to participate, highlighting a major flaw in the strategies employed by political parties: instead of inspiring and engaging the electorate, these parties pursued divisive and exclusionary tactics, which not only demonstrated short-sightedness but also undermined their ability to build broad-based support. This led me to conclude that the approaches taken by these political parties were not just misguided but strategically flawed, failing to resonate with the broader population and contributing to a fragmented and disillusioned electorate.

To substantiate these claims, consider the voter turnout data from previous elections. According to the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), voter turnout has been declining, with the 2019 national election seeing a turnout of just 66% (Fig 1), a significant drop from previous years. This trend indicates growing disenchantment among voters, who feel increasingly disconnected from the political process. Additionally, research by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (IDASA) has shown that extreme partisan rhetoric tends to alienate moderate voters, who seek practical solutions rather than ideological battles.

Moreover, it was ironic that throughout the campaign season, political parties preached the importance of a unified country while simultaneously engaging in actions that undermined each other.

In my piece, I wrote about envisioning South Africa as a symphony. Just like a symphony, we need to recognize that each party has a vital role to play. In an orchestra, the strings, percussion, and brass sections must work together to create a harmonious piece of music. Sure, there’s a conductor to ensure timing and flow, but fundamentally, it’s about acknowledging the strengths of each section and understanding their individual roles in creating a unified whole. I argued that South Africa, at this juncture, needed a conductor or maestro capable of unifying these diverse political entities.

Fast forward to the present, two weeks post-election results, we find ourselves in a situation where a GNU has been proposed. Several political parties have acknowledged that the current structure of majority politics does not adequately represent individual interests. Ironically, the way forward now appears to be through a GNU, much like the symphony analogy I outlined. However, as we observe the unfolding events, it’s clear that while a unified symphony is necessary, we are not yet mature enough to achieve it.

The initial post-election period has been marked by jostling negotiations and conflicts. The DA quickly clashed with the ANC, insisting that any new signatories to the government of national unity needed to be consulted. In response, the ANC asserted that they did not require permission, highlighting an immature mindset that is not conducive to the harmonious, symphonic politics required. This situation underscores the need for genuine leadership that can transcend petty squabbles and guide us towards a more cooperative and unified political environment.

To substantiate the need for a more cooperative approach, we can look at successful examples from other countries. For instance, Germany's grand coalition (Gro?e Koalition) between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) demonstrates how major parties can work together for national stability. Despite ideological differences, these parties have collaborated on significant reforms and policy initiatives, prioritizing national interests over partisan gains.

More paradoxically, behind the scenes, political parties felt insulted and taken aback by the campaign trail antics, where they were ridiculed and made fun of. This is akin to insulting someone's mother and then inviting them to dinner the next week! This paradoxical situation has led to a hung position where parties are negotiating with individuals they fundamentally dislike. It's clear that with a more mature brand of leadership, these issues could have been avoided, instead of attacking each other during campaigns, there should have been an early acknowledgment of the need to work together, extending not just an olive branch but creating a cooperative atmosphere before the elections.

In a paradoxical way, the GNU is crucial because it forces political parties to work together. However, this forced cooperation may come too late to mend the damage caused by the divisive campaign tactics.

Looking at Johannesburg as a case study, we see the failure of multiparty politics in stark relief. At a national level, the GNU excludes the EFF, which doesn't reflect the constituency dynamics in Johannesburg. This inconsistency between national agreements and local realities exacerbates the challenges. Johannesburg, being the largest financial sector in the country, illustrates the pitfalls of disjointed political strategies. The fragmentation here highlights the urgent need for a more unified and cooperative approach at all levels of government.

The ongoing negotiations and the reluctance to cooperate show a clear need for leaders who can rise above partisan squabbles. Germany's grand coalition, mentioned previously, demonstrates how such cooperation can lead to effective governance despite ideological differences. Similarly, the situation in Johannesburg calls for a cohesive strategy that aligns local governance with national policies, ensuring stability and progress.

What does this mean? Fundamentally, it signifies that without a mature approach from our politicians—moving beyond petty politics or the self-aggrandizement I discussed in my previous piece, advocating a shift away from punditry politics—our prospects are dim. While there's endless analysis of others' actions, there must also be a reversal of self-centered politics where politicians glorify themselves instead of focusing on collective prosperity. We need to shift towards a collective approach, where we portray a unified front in our actions and decisions.

The current GNU proposal may seem promising in the short term, with President Ramaphosa likely promoting it as a turning point for the ANC and its coalition partners. However, this setup could be fragile, akin to a House of Cards, liable to collapse within the next 6 to 12 months. This period will reveal the true maturity and commitment of our politicians to put aside personal interests and work cohesively.

I firmly believe that the way forward is to establish a truly representative government where politicians prioritize the people over themselves. This sentiment isn't novel; it echoes across campaign platforms. Yet, actions often diverge from words. As we await the outcome of the GNU in the coming hours or days, I reflect on that piece I wrote six weeks ago. We need a more mature politics, one that envisions a country for all—a symphony where parties collaborate rather than compete to amplify their voices. Together, we can reclaim our rightful place on the global stage.

As I've articulated throughout these discussions, the GNU emerges not just as a pragmatic solution to political fragmentation but also as a critical test of our politicians' maturity and commitment to national interests over personal gain. Reflecting on the dynamics of the recent elections and the subsequent negotiations for a GNU, it's evident that our political leaders must transcend partisan divides and embrace a more collaborative and inclusive approach. The analogy of a symphony orchestra aptly captures this imperative: each political party represents an essential section, contributing unique strengths and perspectives to the collective harmony of governance. However, recent events have shown that while the desire for unity is proclaimed loudly on the campaign trail, the realities of negotiation often reveal entrenched rivalries and a reluctance to compromise.