The GMI Top 5 Charts That Make You Go Hmmm...

In this week’s newsletter, we’re going to focus on a few DeMark charts we have on our radar right now. We find DeMark incredibly useful to contextualise trends and turning points.

As ever, much fuller and more in-depth analysis can be found in Global Macro Investor (www.globalmacroinvestor.com) and Real Vision Pro Macro?https://www.realvision.com/pricing) . Global Macro Investor is our full institutional research service and Real Vision Pro Macro is the sophisticated retail investor service, which is co-authored with leading research firm MI2 Partners.

There is quite a lot to get through, so let’s dive right in...

GMI Chart 1 – Ethereum

The daily chart on ETH looks extremely constructive. We are currently breaking the downtrend at (1), there is an inverse head-and-shoulders at (2) with the right shoulder forming just above previous resistance (1-year downtrend), and a daily DeMark Sequential Countdown in process on day 3 of 13 higher. Finally, a bit higher up closer to 2000 a MASSIVE cup-and-handle looks to be forming; all very bullish and something we’re monitoring closely...

GMI Chart 2 – DXY

The dollar recently put in another daily Sequential Countdown 13 and reversed hard on Friday, currently in wave 3 of 5 lower with a price objective of 106. We’re not totally convinced that we can’t make a final push higher towards 117 but we’re closing in on a top...

The weekly chart also just put in a 9/13/9 which increases the odds of a top forming...

GMI Chart 3 – Emerging Market Equities (EEM)

Emerging Markets are just the inverse of DXY: EEM recently put in a new daily Aggressive Sequential and Sequential Countdown 13 then reversed higher...

... and the weekly chart has a 9/13/9, similar to what we saw back at the March 2020 lows...

China looks the same on the daily...

... as well as the weekly: 9/13/9...

GMI Chart 4 – NDX

NDX has just put in a cluster of new Aggressive Sequential, Combo and Sequential Countdown 13s, having also achieved the wave 5 price objective lower of 10870, and even closing slightly below...

GMI Chart 5 – US 10-Year Yields

Lastly, 10-year yields could still work slightly higher having started another Countdown 13, but...

... the weekly chart recently triggered the whole line-up of 13s signaling exhaustion into the wave 5 price objective of 4.46%.?Can we go a bit higher??Perhaps, but the days of higher yields are numbered in our view...

The GMI Big Picture?

A weaker dollar is the key to everything right now and, with the DeMark counts suggesting we’re nearing a top and the dollar being MASSIVELY over-owned, and...

... overbought – now the second-largest move in over three decades!!! We’re getting close to something big; we don’t think this is the end of the long-term dollar uptrend but a potentially significant correction...

If the dollar starts to weaken it also means bond market liquidity will start to ease...

... which means bond yields will finally start to come down too...

The two taken together would be a HUGE easing of financial conditions and supportive for Emerging Markets, Crypto and risk assets more broadly. There are lots of exciting things going on; here we have shared just a few things that are on our radar right now.?

Enjoy.

See you all next week with another update and have a great Sunday!

Raoul Pal – CEO, Founder - Global Macro Investor

Julien Bittel – Head of Macro Research - Global Macro Investor