Globalization Ending…?
Globalization, cheap and easily accessible products, and open and safe connected trades are dead because of COVID-19, the Ukraine-Russia War, sanctions, and territorial disputes in the South China Seas, threats of Taiwan invasion, and now, the Israel-Hamas conflicts closing the Middle Eastern trade routes… ??So, do you agree that globalization is dead?? ?The pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflict inflaming larger conflict, and political dysfunctions in Europe and Asia as the Americas quickly closes the chapter of globalization and are rebuilding localization…? Not many nations will survive.? Perhaps, the USA is best able to endure deglobalization as it will continue to maintain Mexico, Canada, and South America's trading relations.? No other country in the world has the options like the Americans…? Not good.? Deglobalization will thrust 1) Disruption of Maritime Trade Routes, 2) Economic Uncertainty, 3) Impact on Regional Stability, 4) Legal and Regulatory Challenges, and 5) Energy Security Concerns…???
In this week’s report will examine how the brewing South China Sea territorial disputes and Israel/Hamas conflicts are closing globalization for sure…
1.???? The Red Sea Crisis, and Global Trade Impact??????? Attacks by Houthi rebels along the trade route have led to firms pausing shipments, raising the possibility of a shock to the world economy.? The world’s largest shipping firms are continuing to pause shipments through the Red Sea after attacks by Houthi rebels along the crucial international trade route.? As container ships are diverted around the Cape of Good Hope on the southern tip of Africa, adding thousands of miles to journeys, the disruption is driving up the cost of shipments from Asia to Europe, raising the prospect of a renewed inflation shock for the world economy.? Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have significantly stepped up a campaign of attacks against commercial vessels in the Bab-el-Mandeb strait between the Arabian peninsula and the Horn of Africa since late November.? Launched in response to Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, the attacks have escalated in the past week. Helicopters launched from US Navy warships were used to repel an attack by militants on a ship owned by Maersk over the weekend, leading the Danish shipping line to continue to pause all cargo movement through the area until further notice.
The Suez Canal handles about 12% of global trade and is accessed by vessels traveling from Asia via the 30km wide Bab-el-Mandeb strait. About half of the freight shipped through the canal is made up of containerized goods. The route also provides a vital passage for shipments of oil from the Persian Gulf to Europe and North America.? Rerouting shipments around the Cape of Good Hope adds about 3,000-3,500 nautical miles (6,000km) to journeys connecting Europe with Asia, adding about 10 days to the duration of the trip, according to the Dutch bank ING.? Redirecting ships is expected to cost up to $1m in extra fuel for every round trip between Asia and Europe, while insurance costs are also rising, adding to the overall cost of shipments.? Tankers transporting diesel and jet fuel from the Middle East and Asia are being diverted, while container shipments of consumer goods, commodities, clothing and food are also likely to be delayed.? Global oil prices rose on Wednesday as concerns over delays in the Red Sea were compounded by reports of disruption to Libya’s biggest oilfield.
2.???? South China Sea Problems on Globalization.? ??????As Xi Jinping’s falling out with the Chinese Communist Party and mutual distrust, Xi may be willing to divert attention to the South China Sea as this will certainly, permanently damage globalization.? The South China Sea conflict has the potential to impact globalization in several ways, although it is essential to note that the situation is dynamic and subject to change. Here are some ways in which the conflict could affect globalization:? China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea—and the sea’s estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—have antagonized competing claimants Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. As early as the 1970s, countries began to claim islands and various zones in the South China Sea, such as the Spratly Islands, which possess rich natural resources and fishing areas.? Despite July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague issued its ruling on a claim brought against China by the Philippines under UNCLOS, ruling in favor of the Philippines on almost every count. China refuses to accept the court’s authority.? In recent years, satellite imagery has shown China’s increased efforts to reclaim land in the South China Sea by physically increasing the size of islands or creating new islands altogether. In addition to piling sand onto existing reefs, China has constructed ports, military installations, and airstrips—particularly in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, where it has twenty and seven outposts, respectively. China has militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets, cruise missiles, and a radar system.
Globalization Is Ending.?????? Well, the Globalization ends as the COVID-19 dealt a fatal blow. ?Not only has it begun to produce severe self-limiting side effects such as indebtedness and climate damage, but trade, travel, and the flow of ideas have been decisively changed in the last year. Furthermore, what is worrying is that in past international crises – most of them economic or geopolitical, there has usually been a sense of a committee to save the world – that leaders and leading nations would come together. This time, uniquely, there has been little collaboration.? In the end, the chaos and tragedy wrought by the coronavirus meant that my Talk changed several times, but in the end, the thesis that globalization is dead and is giving way to a multipolar world is still clear, in my view.
Emerging world.? ??Most impacts are on, especially, emerging economies – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and Brazil for example. Economically and socially, they are also stressed by what has happened through 2020, and in most cases do not have large, powerful central banks to cushion the financial blow.? As globalization ends, and chaos seems to reign, these countries and their young populations, the scope they have to grow and shape their societies, are the future and the promise of the next world order. That’s a great challenge for the future!
While the South China Sea conflict may not directly damage globalization, its ramifications on trade routes, economic stability, regional security, legal frameworks, and energy resources could collectively contribute to a more challenging global environment. The resolution of tensions in the South China Sea is crucial to maintaining the smooth functioning of global trade and fostering international cooperation.? And, disruption of the Red Sea trading routes may further exacerbate declining globalization.?
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Note:?
How did globalization start, who benefited from globalization, and how will the globalization end?? Globalization is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that has evolved over centuries. Its roots can be traced back to ancient trade routes and the exchange of goods and ideas between different cultures. However, the contemporary phase of globalization began in the late 20th century and was driven by a combination of technological advancements, policy changes, and economic shifts.
Origins of Globalization:?????? Technological Advances: The development of transportation, communication, and information technologies, such as steamships, telegraphs, and later the internet, played a crucial role in reducing barriers to international trade and communication.? Governments around the world began to dismantle trade barriers and adopt more open economic policies. Institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) were established to facilitate global trade.?The rise of multinational corporations seeking new markets and cheaper labor, as well as the liberalization of financial markets, contributed to the globalization of economic activities.
Who Benefited from Globalization:? Globalization initially brought significant benefits to developed countries, as they often had the resources and technology to capitalize on new market opportunities.? Companies with the ability to expand globally reaped the rewards of increased market access and cost efficiencies by outsourcing production to countries with lower labor costs.? Access to a wider variety of goods and services at competitive prices benefited consumers globally.? Some developing countries experienced economic growth and improved living standards by participating in global trade.
How Globalization Will End:???? The future of globalization is uncertain, and there are various perspectives on how it might evolve or decline:? Geopolitical Shifts, Technological Changes, Environmental Concerns, Pandemics and Crises…?? In summary, the origins of globalization are rooted in historical trade and communication, but technological advancements and policy changes significantly accelerated the contemporary phase. While various entities, including developed countries and multinational corporations, initially benefited, the future of globalization is uncertain and may be influenced by geopolitical shifts, technological changes, environmental concerns, and unforeseen global events.
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?~S. Vincent Shin, ???www.dhirubhai.net/in/vshin
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References (Not limited to.):
Analytic--Investor--Student
8 个月Treegens aloha.
"Trade routes like the South China Sea and Red Sea have long been pivotal for global commerce, reshaping not just economies but environments too. ?? As Jane Goodall said, 'What you do makes a difference, and you have to decide what kind of difference you want to make.' ?? Speaking of making a difference, there's an extraordinary opportunity to be part of a Guinness World Record for Tree Planting. Imagine the global impact! Find out more here: https://bit.ly/TreeGuinnessWorldRecord ??"
Absolutely resonating with your sentiments on the significance of these trade routes! ?? As Mahatma Gandhi once said, "The world is one family." In our global village, fostering understanding and cooperation is key to enhancing international trade and prosperity. ????
Analytic--Investor--Student
10 个月Antonio Román ???? aloha.
Analytic--Investor--Student
10 个月Lee Seng Sze REEM,CIPM,CEA,C.Tech aloha.