Global Warming in the Pipeline
I keep hearing that the 1970s were a period of relatively cold weather and that we're simply on the warmer side of the climate average. Nothing to worry about...
However, as noted by Dr. Hansen (previously the head of?GISS). “People in Central and Southern Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East realize that their summer climate is becoming noticeably hotter (temperature change per decade since 1970 above). And there is already more warming “in the pipeline” due to existing greenhouse gas (GHG) amounts than the warming that has occurred so far, as we describe in a paper (“Global Warming in the Pipeline”) near completion.”?
What does this mean? It means that when the yearly global average temperatures might have dipped, they didn't. For instance, we've all heard that the "pause" (2000 to ~ 2010 +) in global warming invalidated the premise of global warming. A more cogent response would be: while climate models are not yet sophisticated enough to model decadal changes due to other climate forcings besides CO2, they are consistent in indicating warming. Hence, when these other forcings flip the other way, the extent of the heating due to CO2 and other greenhouse gases will quite apparent.
Considering what's in the pipeline, we have very little time to take mitigative efforts.
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1 年When the paper is published, I hope it helps to respond directly to another similar paper from 2020 by MacDougall, et. al., "Is there warming in the pipeline?" One would almost assume that Hansen named his paper as he did in response! The MacDougall paper, with ZECMIP research results, comfortably, reassuringly, tells us that if (IF) we stop emitting ALL carbon dioxide, temperatures will essentially stop rising. Because the models say so! Of course, the paper begins with this disclaimer: "The most policy relevant question related to ZEC is: will global temperature continue to increase following complete cessation of greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions? The present iteration of ZECMIP aims to answer part of this question by examining the temperature response in idealized CO2-only climate model experiments. To answer the question in full, the behaviour of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land-use-change must be accounted for in a consistent way. Such efforts will be the focus of future iterations of ZECMIP."