The Global War On Terror Grinds Along

Twenty years have passed since the United States declared a global war on terror. What lessons were learned, and how far did the war come??

?

No one in the American establishment had imagined that an attack on that scale could take place. All shortcomings were brutally exposed. Can anyone say with confidence today that such incidents won't repeat? No one knows.?

?

Historians claim that Osama Bin Laden was inspired by both geopolitical reasons and religious ones. His idea that a decisive blow against the US would lead to changed policies, was misplaced. He set out to break the American invincibility but was unable to. The world instead plunged into prolonged uncertainties, as many new terror groups formed. But the Global War on terror did work to the extent that any large-scale mayhem did not happen.?

?

Various "leaders" of the terror formations - Osama bin Laden (Al-Qaeda), Ayman al-Zawahiri (Al-Qaeda), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (IS), Mukhtar Abu Zubair (Al-Shabab), etc. - lacked a central vision or the power, to sustain any momentum. Then, safe havens began evaporating. Then, the leaders also became invisible.?

?

Despite 20 years of Global War, the terror problem did not end. Top leaders died, organizations fractured, territories were lost but the challenge has persisted. Small-scale attacks continue; as lone warriors remain free. But the ability to launch larger attacks has not ended.

?

The terror that comes from a mix of radicalism and fundamentalism is as vibrant as ever. The theological teachings of Egyptian Sayyid Qutb or Palestinian Abdullah Azzam may be less known now, but the practical methods of the Haqqanis (Afghanistan), Hafiz Saeed (LeT), and Maulana Masood Azhar (JeM) are still alive. Islamist terrorism can spring surprises.

?

The democratic world is showing less appetite now, to fight terror in distant lands, and the field is now open to terror groups like the Taliban. Within Islam, there is the intra - denominational skirmish now, as seen in the terror blasts in Kabul. Its spillover may perhaps reach Kashmir, as witnessed in recent killings of civilians and then military men, in the cleanup operations.?

?

The zero-day attacks like those on 9/11 or 26/11 Mumbai remain the most potent. But evidence suggests that new-age terrorists are working on newer, "remote-controlled terror". That is frightening. The internet-enabled terror can be tough to catch and will be a new genre altogether.?

?

Cyber terror is a real possibility now, and state-backed terror groups can create dislocations in the military setups of their enemies. Nothing is off bounds now, and one needs to stay prepared.

- Aindri Abhishek Singh

?