Global Tipping Point

There are many issues that are affecting the rational progress of our global village. We have each felt one or more of these influences, but when considered together, they offer us an indisputable and momentous tipping point that will mark a period of significant and potential irreparable change.

It must be said that all societies experience change and evolution – that’s the nature of human and social existence. The issue now however, is that the influences threaten to be widespread, speedy, and profound by overlapping upon each other and accentuating the effects of each. In that environment, prediction becomes difficult and hazardous.

I see 11 major influences.

1. Climate Change

On the issue of climate change, whether you accept the science or not, the climate is changing. The issue here, is not whether it is caused by man, but that it is happening. The most obvious signs are glacial and snow-cap melting, frequency of very severe hurricanes and other extreme events, heating of continents and rising sea levels.

Some will argue that the Earth has experienced the ebb and flow of climate change over millennia; this is true only reinforcing the fact that it is happening now.

The social disruption and economic impacts of climate change are staggering. If you consider only the immediate impacts of recent hurricanes Harvey and Irma, then we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of damage and loss and similar amounts for reconstruction. That doesn’t factor in the uprooting of millions of people worldwide. On top of that, these climatic events have destroyed many small and medium sized businesses that were under-insured or not insured and who have been wiped out.

These events stimulate the construction sector while giving the insurance sector a massive hit. But construction will be difficult because banks and mortgage lenders will classify threatened areas as high risk and limit their exposure to such lending. Already evident now, there will be locations around the world that will become uninsurable, thus limiting their potential for industry and settlement.

Sea-level rise threatens hundreds of million people globally, the cities they live in and the industries they rely on to feed their families. The impact of sea-level rise will be felt for many generations to come and cause major relocations in most nations. Cities and coastal regions that are only feet above sea level will be inundated and small islands will disappear.

2. Trump

I’ve written a bit about Donald Trump – none of it particularly congratulatory. It’s not so much that he is an incredibly incompetent President, but it’s that he marks the end of American dominance globally. For a few years to come, the US will still be a powerhouse for its economic, military and technological supremacy. But all of that is changing. Leaving aside that virtually all political leaders are privately laughing at Trump, and the Americans who elected him, and are using his presence to soberly realise that there is, and needs to be, a new world order.

China will surpass the US in sheer economic production within a generation, remembering that much of Chinese production isn’t currently recorded for GDP purposes. Some suspect that they are already nudging US total production figures. India too, is moving up there but they have a long way to go. In due course India will start major campaigns to change the lives of its poorest citizens. India already has the largest middle class of any nations (but China is closing in on this title very quickly).

The nature of military capability is changing and China is quickly catching up – not so much in weapon-count or head-count, but more in offensive and defensive capability – particularly where weaponry relies on technological competence.

And America’s technological dominance, although real, is being proportionately diminished through the accessibility and focus on technology by many nations – particularly those who are resource-poor and see technology as a strategic solution for long-term viability.

On top of all of that, the USA is grossly in debt and goes nowhere near economic sustainability. China sits on many trillions of hard currency US dollar reserves and has incredible power through them.

That the US is diminishing its global influence, is partially magnified by Trump’s presidency, but highlights the legitimate question of, “which country will lead the world in the near future and what are the implications of that?”

China is the only realistic candidate for global stewardship but it probably won’t be like the US stewardship. The US wanted a piece of everything (but not territory) and would reasonably do almost anything to protect its borders and its economic interests. Trump is pronouncing this too. China, although obviously interested in security and its economic interests, has a much more nuanced strategy for doing that. China is patient (economically) and understands (better than the US) the value of building relationships and trust. The US does this through the implied (and sometimes stated) threat of economic withdrawal and punishment, while China is much less obvious and does it through mutual benefit.

A pervasive China means a different trading and political culture with more patient and steady alliances and relationships. Where the West is currently very strong in the areas of governance and accountability, China will be less insistent.

3. The Disintegration of the Arab World

The traditional Arab world has begun to change since the Arab Spring. Despite this, the Arab world won’t go away. Instead, it will change and influence the rest of the world for years to come. The Arab world influences the entire Muslim world – sometimes for good and sometimes in a confrontational manner.

The negatives are obvious; the emergence of ISIS, Al Qaeda, rebel groups, rebellions against authority, sect versus sect conflict, and so in.

The positives are a little more nuanced. Arab societies are getting more pragmatic – they understand that oil won’t last forever and that to continue providing a viable society, they need to generate non-oil economic activities. Leaving aside those states in active conflict now, most of the others are very focused on this. Their motivation is twofold – firstly the well-being of their societies and the constituents within them; and secondly, if they don’t provide a viable state, they risk rebellion – and most have citizenry that is armed or can acquire arms.

This process has seen some interesting developments: many Arab states are overtly or covertly talking to and cooperating with Israel. In that process, there appears to be an acknowledgment that Arab states have consistently been using the Palestinian people as a strategy to keep pressure on Israel and to invalidate its existence, rather than to promote and support Palestinians. That move is great for Arab/Israeli long-term normalisation of relationships, but is ominous for the Palestinians, who are, after all, recent arrivals to the area (despite popular fiction) from a wide range of neighbouring states. The destiny of the Palestinians is bleak: they are losing their traditional supporters, they have little industry, they have a land area that is barely viable, and they are losing popular support. People realise that past opportunities to sign a peace treaty were golden opportunities and may never be repeated.

4. North Korea

The North Korean society has been reclusive, subversive, dictatorial and repressive for many generations. They currently have a leader who is trying to stay in power and to do it with grandeur and respect. To do that, he needs to avoid being conquered by anyone.

Leaving his youth aside, he is a ruthless and despotic leader; merely a reflection of the brutal society he rules. His recent motives for his nation’s nuclear pursuits are probably somewhat conjectural but are none-the-less, very real.

There are three possible outcomes to the North Korean “situation”.

First: North Korean will continue to bluff and bluster – Kim may be young but I really don’t think he is suicidal. To cross the line is to commit suicide. The crossing of the line may be a missile, nuclear or not, fired at an American territory. Therefore, he will achieve more through a bluff and bluster strategy that leads to negotiation, probably after he has mastered the nuclear strategy.

Second: The bluff and bluster will fizzle out with nothing achieved and reversion back to a dead-lock state.

Third: Either Kim or Trump will miscalculate. America will survive a major conflict but may be injured if Kim masters the nuclear armament strategy. North Korea on the other hand, will be annihilated and South Korea will probably suffer major devastation. Although China, Russia and South Korea will be understandably very upset and huff and puff a lot, they will quietly be happy that it is over. China will regret an expansion of South Korea (or what’s left of it) and be unhappy with a Western country (i.e. USA) on its border. If we get to this, the US would be wise to tell China beforehand that China is free to set-up whatever state it wants in what was North Korea as the US has no desire to expand the South into the North. The price that the US may have to pay is to see a non-Western or at least non-aligned reunification of the peninsular.

We now have two unstable leaders playing with the nuclear option. I think we need divine intervention here. If option three happens, it may see much wider collateral impacts. 

5. Iran

Iran is, is seen to be, and widely known to be, the instigator of terrorism globally. Its inability to coexist with others has been demonstrated by its religious and political intrusions into multiple regions and contexts.

It has, miraculously and remarkably, been able to unite its current “enemies”. Who would have predicted the current “closeness” of countries like Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Israel?

If Iran succeeds in securing a nuclear weapon, it will almost definitely use it against Israel. No treaty will stop it, and to believe that it will, is profoundly na?ve. The treaty merely gave Iran time to build its nuclear capability. Whether Trump responds to any overt aggression against Israel (or anyone else), remains to be seen but Israel will not rely solely on the US. Whether Israel can mute and defeat Iran is conjectural but they will certainly try.

The wash-up of an Iran/Saudi/Gulf States/Israel conflict is horrifying to even contemplate.

6. Refugees

Many Arab and North African societies have been seriously and negatively impacted by one conflict or another. Many countries have lost their infrastructures, their industries, their housing, and of course, their people – either through death or flight.

Even if war, conflict, despotism, racism and inter and inner-religious conflict ceased today, it would still be many years before those societies could be adequately restored to be able to viably support a population.

Therefore, refugees will keep coming and most of them will head for Europe, which is the closest realistic refuge.

7. ISIS

ISIS appears to be soon defeated in many parts of the Middle East. For those ISIS proponents still alive, their desire to build a global caliphate has not abated. They have refocused their attention to Europe and other areas such as Africa and Asia. The battles in these regions will be quite different.

Europe has been overrun by refugees, some of them one suspects, are ISIS operatives or at least ISIS sympathisers. In any case, some Muslim communities in Europe have a few hard-line Imams and lay activists determined to turn the fight into a fight against Europe. Tragically, the examples are many of their efforts, and equally tragically, they will continue.

In Africa, ISIS will fight a more traditional fight, much like that seen in the Middle East. However, in some cases, the local non-Muslim communities will form a defence but it will be difficult due to inadequate armaments, intelligence and infrastructure.

In Asia, one has significant numbers of non-Muslim populations who have already started to rebel against their Muslim communities. Myanmar is a recent example but it will become more prevalent. In Myanmar, the local community appears to be turning against the entire Muslim community rather than just ISIS members. Philippines is seeing the beginning of a national push-back against the ISIS rebels.

ISIS will not entirely leave us for a few generations. Of course, that’s bad for all of us, but it’s even worse for the majority of peace-loving Muslims. The politically correct approach is to accept people as honest and law-abiding, and only pursue those who have perpetrated a crime. Unfortunately, the majority of non-Western societies will probably not see it through that lens and tragically, they will pursue all Muslims – because it’s easier and more achievable. The cost of course, will be many innocent Muslims.

8. European Union

Europe is nowhere near as cohesive as it was, say even five years ago. Brexit aside, the European Union is fracturing. A move to the right, significant debt in some nations, resentment by some for them to subsidize the indebted nations, resentment at huge labour shifts, resentment at access to welfare, resentment at unsupportable mass migration into their areas, and so on.

And then there’s Brexit – which has set the example of a nation wishing to take back control of its destiny – and others are sure to follow eventually.

And then there’s the elephant in the room – the staggering influx of refugees. The influx is not likely to totally stop as Europe is “less-worse” than the environments from which the refugees have come. This is putting enormous strain on many countries, their infrastructure and their societies – let alone policing, health, security, welfare and so on.

Some Union members have closed their borders. Some are actively legislating against certain rights and practices of refugees – particularly Muslims. This is unlikely to stop.

The European Union will not “die” anytime soon, but its voice will become increasingly disunited and problematic. If most of its member states move to the right, as they are doing, then the Union will ultimately need to do so too to remain relevant to its members.

9. Technology

Technology is profoundly changing us. For the first time in human history, virtually all knowledge is available and accessible to anyone with a mobile phone. That’s an amazing development because it will enable (but not by itself) humanity to lift itself from poverty, inaccessibility and ignorance. Not easy, but a wonderful acceleration in the movement to improve the conditions of the majority of the world’s population.

The flip side of course, is that everyone can communicate to others and be communicated with. Apart from the niceties of this, this is a very powerful adjunct to the concept of power by the people, of the people, for the people. It has been postulated that much of the momentum of recent social movements has been lubricated by social media and the ability to access and mobilise vast numbers of people almost instantaneously. This is wonderful from a social and connectedness perspective, but it is also a serious threat to many non-democratic societies as well as some reputedly democratic ones.

The days when the authorities put out a carefully developed spin on an issue and that was the sole opinion, are well and truly over. And that’s a good thing but governments and authorities are challenged by it for the time being. Inevitably, they will need to work out a way to manage this more effectively because it isn’t going away.

Couple all of this with the 24-hour news cycle and you have an uncontrollable environment that cuts through authoritarian gateway requirements and opens itself up to heterogeneous interpretation of reality, need and destiny.

The one reality from this is that life will never be again the way it was 25 years ago.

10. Political move to the right

There is an indisputable move to the right by many countries. Some are doing it in response to refugees (European states), some are doing it in response to the perceived, interpreted or posited failure of parties on the left (the election of the US Republican Party), and some are doing it because of their disenfranchisement with the political system and disillusion with politicians on the left and centre (Australia).

Such a move has ramifications – the tightening of the rights and benefits for the poor, the unemployed, the disenfranchised, the sick and the disabled. It makes society less compassionate and tougher all around. It assumes that you either provide for yourself or you sink – it asks why the state (and other tax payers) need to support you if you don’t try to support yourself. We see this in the US and we see this in Australia now. Some European countries are also “clamping down” on the rights and privileges of the poor and needy.

And that feeds the 11th issue.

11. Gap between haves and have nots

The gap between the rich and the poor is increasing in Western societies. It has always existed in non-Western countries but now it’s increasing everywhere. The reasons are not hard to understand: if you’ve got the funds, it’s easier to generate more funds than if you don’t have funds, and with funds, you can control the industrial complex and the government. Couple this with globalisation, better transport and global telecommunications which all magnify opportunities, sometimes into obscene heights.

Societies will need to deal with this gap because it represents uncertainty, dissatisfaction and frustration. In most reasonable societies, this frustration is demonstrated through the ballot box. In not-so developed societies, it is often demonstrated through riots and social unrest. In undeveloped societies, it is demonstrated through revolution.

When you have such frustration, and a move to the right, and everyone has guns – such as in the USA, then you have a recipe for real trouble.

Conclusion

In the past, we have seen multiple serious issues occurring around the world. Most of those issues were isolated to a single region. The 11 issues listed here are all global issues.

Considered together, these issues represent a massive force for change, and with it, unrest, destabilisation, uncertainty, non-predictability. Not only will things change, but they will change quickly, profoundly, and have unanticipated consequences.

For governments and corporate leaders alike, we are experiencing a period of unprecedented global dynamic and an environment of planning difficulty. What is clear though is that a strategy, particularly a longer-term strategy, will need not only a plan, but a Plan B, Plan C and possibly a Plan D.