Global Steel Production Trends – July 2024

1. Overview

In July 2024, global steel production witnessed a significant decline, marking a 4.7% year-over-year (y/y) decrease to 152.8 million tons, according to the World Steel Association's ranking of 71 steel-producing countries. This decline is even more pronounced when compared to June 2024, with a month-over-month (m/m) reduction of 5.3%. These figures highlight the ongoing challenges facing the global steel industry, driven by factors such as economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, and market saturation.

2. Regional Analysis

CIS+Ukraine Region: The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Ukraine exhibited mixed performance in July 2024. Total steel production in this region decreased by 0.8% y/y to 7.5 million tons. However, on a monthly basis, there was a slight recovery, with production increasing by 1.4% m/m.

Ukraine's steel production was particularly noteworthy, showing a robust 17.9% y/y increase to 709,000 tons, despite a 3.5% decline m/m. This growth in Ukraine can be attributed to efforts to revitalize the industry post-conflict and leverage its strategic position in the global market.

3. Top 10 Steel-Producing Countries

The top ten steel producers in July 2024, representing the largest share of global output, were as follows:

1. China: 82.9 million tons (-9% y/y)
2. India: 12.3 million tons (+6.8%)
3. Japan: 7.1 million tons (-3.8%)
4. USA: 6.9 million tons (+2.1%)
5. Russian Federation: 6.3 million tons (-3.1%)
6. South Korea: 5.5 million tons (-3.4%)
7. Germany: 3.1 million tons (+4.8%)
8. Turkey: 3.1 million tons (+4%)
9. Brazil: 3.1 million tons (+11.6%)
10. Iran: 1.8 million tons (-18.7%)

4. Year-to-Date Performance (January-July 2024)

In the first seven months of 2024, global steel production fell by 0.7% y/y to 1.11 billion tons, indicating a broader trend of contraction. However, the CIS+Ukraine region maintained its output at 51.5 million tons, consistent with the previous year. Ukraine, in particular, showed remarkable resilience with a 33.6% y/y increase to 4.58 million tons, highlighting its strategic efforts to rebuild and expand its steel production capabilities.

5. Historical Context and Long-Term Trends

In 2023, global steel production saw a marginal decline of 0.1% compared to 2022, totaling 1.85 billion tons. The CIS+Ukraine region bucked the global trend with a 4.5% increase in production to 88.1 million tons, signaling regional resilience amidst global challenges. Ukraine’s steel production in 2023 was 6.2 million tons, down 0.6% y/y, ranking it 24th globally, an improvement from 25th in 2022.

6. Conclusion

The data from July 2024 indicates a challenging period for the global steel industry, with significant declines in major markets like China, offset by growth in regions such as India and Brazil. The CIS+Ukraine region, particularly Ukraine, demonstrates resilience and recovery potential, which could play a crucial role in the global steel market dynamics moving forward.

Understanding these trends is essential for stakeholders in the steel industry to navigate the current challenges and capitalize on emerging opportunities. The continued monitoring of production levels, geopolitical developments, and economic policies will be key to forecasting future market movements.