Global Steel Demand May Increase Slightly In 2023

According to the prediction results recently released by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, in terms of regions, the global steel demand in 2023 will present the following characteristics:

Asia

In 2022, under the influence of factors such as the tightening of the global financial environment, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the slowdown of China's economic growth, Asian economic growth will face greater challenges. Looking forward to 2023, Asia is in a favorable position for global economic development and is expected to enter a stage of rapid inflation decline, and its economic growth rate will exceed that of other regions. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Asian economy will grow by 4.3% in 2023. According to comprehensive judgment, the steel demand in Asia will be about 1.273 billion tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.

North America. The International Monetary Fund predicts that in 2023, the economic growth rate in North America will be 1.0%. High interest rates will increase corporate financing costs, which is not conducive to the development of steel industries such as manufacturing and construction. In addition, the newly promulgated infrastructure law in the United States will promote the growth of infrastructure investment and investment in the energy industry, which in turn will drive the growth of steel demand. Considering the development of the North American economy and construction, manufacturing, automobile, energy and other industries in 2023, it is estimated that the steel demand in North America will be about 143 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%.

South America

In 2023, dragged down by high global inflation, most countries in South America will face greater pressure in revitalizing their economies, controlling inflation, and creating jobs, and their economic growth will slow down. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the South American economy will grow by 1.6% in 2023. Among them, driven by infrastructure construction, housing construction, renewable energy projects, ports, and oil and natural gas project construction, the demand for steel in Brazil is expected to rise, which will directly drive the rebound in steel demand in South America. According to comprehensive judgment, the steel demand in South America reached about 42.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%.

Africa. In 2022, Africa's economy will grow faster. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices have risen sharply, and some European countries have shifted their energy needs to Africa, effectively boosting the African economy. The International Monetary Fund predicts that in 2023, the African economy will grow by 3.7% year-on-year. Under the dual benefits of maintaining high oil prices and the start of construction of a large number of infrastructure projects, the steel demand in Africa is expected to reach 41.3 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%.

Middle East

In 2023, economic recovery in the Middle East will depend on international oil prices, epidemic prevention measures, the scope of policies to support growth, and measures to mitigate the economic damage caused by the epidemic. At the same time, factors such as geopolitics will also bring uncertainty to the economic development of the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund predicts that by 2023, the economic growth rate of the Middle East will be 5%. According to comprehensive judgment, the demand for steel products in the Middle East will be about 51 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2%.

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