Global Risk Predictions: India

https://www.theirm.org/media-centre/latest-news-and-views/risk-predictions-2019.aspx#india

The year 2019 is an important year in the course of India and its future economic politico-socio-economic development will depend on the results of the general election. Many of the factors of the economic risks such as demands for goods and services, government policies (fiscal and monetary), real estate sector, exchange rate, inflation etc. will depend on who takes the reins of the country. 

In the next couple of months, there could be pro-people measures which may consume excess of cash sitting with the central bank. If this is the case, the central bank may have to take tough measures post-election. The funding of election expenditure may be recovered post-election through price rise leading to increase in inflation in later half of 2019. This would mean that interest rate may remain at a current level or even at a higher level during second half of 2019. 

Environmental risks continue to be high due to global warming and limited steps taken by different governments. Excess of rain/flood continue to be the consequence of adverse environment. 

Cyber risk continues to make headlines during 2019; more investment towards digitalization will further increase digital risk due to lack of full understanding of digital world. The infancy of risk culture in India may prove to be expensive to some business. 

The protectionist approach by the developed market may throw challenges to the Indian workforce; the country therefore, should focus on manufacturing side rather than service side.