GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS OF THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA WAR GETTING COMPOUNDING

GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS OF THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA?WAR GETTING COMPOUNDING

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INTRODUCTION

?I would like to initiate with the statements and remarks of Under-Secretary-General Rosemary DiCarlo in?remarks?to the Security Council meeting on Ukraine, 17?July ’23?.“The longer this war continues, the more dangerous its consequences, including the possibility of a wider conflict. For the sake of the Ukrainian people and for the sake of our global community, this senseless, unjustified war must stop” The horrific war in Ukraine has led to a large-scale humanitarian and refugee crisis. The Global Crisis Response Group Task Team is issuing a series of reports, which can be found?here, on the global impact of the war on food, energy, and finance systems.

OVERVIEW

The security situation in Ukraine deteriorated rapidly following the launch of a Russian Federation military offensive on 24 February 2022. The armed violence escalated in at least eight oblasts (regions), including Kyivska oblast and the capital city of Kyiv, as well as in the eastern oblasts Donetsk and Luhansk which were already affected by conflict. The escalation of conflict has triggered an immediate and steep rise in humanitarian needs as essential supplies and services are disrupted and civilians flee the fighting. The UN estimates that 12 million people inside Ukraine will need relief and protection, while more than 4 million Ukrainian refugees may need protection and assistance in neighboring countries in the coming months. On 1 March 2022, the UN and humanitarian partners launched coordinated?Flash Appeals for a combined $1.7 billion to urgently deliver humanitarian support to people in Ukraine and refugees in neighboring countries. Inside Ukraine, the plan requires $1.1 billion to meet the escalating humanitarian needs of more than six million people affected and displaced by military operations over the next three months. Outside the country, the UN requested $551 million to help Ukrainians who have fled across borders, principally to Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova.

?Amin Awad, the UN Crisis Coordinator for Ukraine?called for an "immediate?humanitarian pause" ?on 5 March, in the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces, as UN aid supplies continue to arrive in the country.?The message of the General Assembly is loud and clear:?End hostilities in Ukraine — now. Silence the guns — now. Open the door to dialogue and diplomacy — now.?We don’t have a moment to lose. The brutal effects of the conflict are plain to see. But as bad as the situation is for the people in Ukraine right now, it threatens to get much, much worse. The ticking clock is a time bomb. The world wants an end to the tremendous human suffering in Ukraine. This same truth was clear in the rapid mobilization of funds for our lifesaving humanitarian operations in Ukraine and neighboring countries.?Our global flash appeal was met with record generosity.?Looking ahead, I will continue to do everything in my power to contribute to an immediate cessation of hostilities and urgent negotiations for peace. People in Ukraine desperately need peace. And people around the world demand it

?‘GRIM MILESTONE’ AS UKRAINE WAR REACHES 500-DAY PLUS MARK

?The UN deplored the horrendous civilian cost of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which reached the 500-day mark on Friday.?The war began on 24 February 2022, and the UN’s Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine?(HRMMU) has confirmed that more than 9,000 civilians, including over 500 children, have been killed since then, though the real number could be much higher.“ Today we mark another grim milestone in the war that continues to exact a horrific toll on Ukraine’s civilians,”?said?Noel Calhoun,???????deputy head of the Mission. The HRMMU reported that overall monthly casualties decreased earlier this year when compared to 2022, but the average number rose again in May and June, with the last two weeks among some of the deadliest since fighting began.

?STATEMENT BY THE HUMANITARIAN COORDINATOR FOR UKRAINE, DENISE BROWN, ON A NEW WAVE OF ATTACKS ON NEARLY HALF OF UKRAINE’S REGIONS

A new wave of massive Russian attacks on at least 10 of Ukraine's 24 regions has left behind a path of destruction and death over the past 24 hours. Grain storage facilities, vital for the Ukrainian farmers and global food security, have been hit in the Danube area. A school in the Sumy region was damaged, and teachers were killed and injured. In the Kherson region, civilians endured some horrifying hours of relentless strikes that damaged a hospital and forced aid organizations to suspend vital assistance and take shelter in the middle of the day yesterday. I have repeatedly expressed alarm about this brutal pattern of civilian harm due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This must stop, and international humanitarian law must be respected.

?“Measures to address the risk of diversion of weapons and ammunition to unauthorized end-users and for unauthorized uses are essential for preventing further instability and insecurity in Ukraine, the region and beyond,” she said. She called on Member States to consider joining relevant treaties and agreements, including the?Arms Trade Treaty, the first ever legally binding instrument negotiated at the UN to establish common standards for the international transfer of conventional weapons. Turning to battlefield casualties, she said the rising death toll remains a grave concern.?

From 24 February 2022 to 13 August this year, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has recorded 26,384 civilian casualties in Ukraine, with 9,444 killed and 16,940 injured. The actual figures are likely to be “considerably higher”, she said. In this vein, she said the UN strongly condemns attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure and calls for their immediate cessation. Such actions are prohibited under international humanitarian law, she noted.

“The Russian military offensive in Ukraine, in violation of the?UN Charter?and international law, is hitting the most vulnerable the hardest,” she said. “It is imperative to put an end to this brutal war.”

‘HEAVIER, DEADLIER, MORE PROVOCATIVE’

Also briefing the Council, United States journalist Danny Haiphong echoed some of the High Representative’s concerns, including the “staggering” battlefield toll.“ NATO countries have provided over $40 billion in weapons to Ukraine over the span of the conflict, and we have witnessed these weapons become heavier, deadlier, and more provocative, stymying the possibility of a negotiated settlement to the conflict,” he said. Many of these weapons have landed on the black market, to drug cartels, criminal organizations, and “neo-Nazi and fascist elements, many of which now make up parts of the Ukrainian armed forces”, he claimed. Emphasizing that one of the Security Council’s primary responsibilities is the maintenance of international peace and stability, he also claimed that ongoing arms sales to Ukraine violate the?UN Charter, revealing what he characterized as the geopolitical realities that undergird the conflict.“ The United States and its Western partners must learn to operate within the framework of international law just like all other Member States or the world will face the continued threat of instability and war,” he said.

Russia: Weapon ‘testing’ ground

Russian Deputy Permanent Representative Dmitry Polyanskiy said Ukraine has been turned into a “testing ground” for weapons, including arms containing depleted uranium and cluster munitions supplied by London and Washington. As a result, high radiation has been detected in some areas, he added. The only result of Kyiv’s recent counter-offensive is tens of thousands of deaths of Ukrainian soldiers and the destruction of vast amounts of Western weapons, he told ambassadors. At this point, the full collapse of the Ukrainian military command has even repelled Western mercenaries, who are being recruited from all over the world, he said. At the same time, Western weapons have surfaced on the black market across the world, as suppliers ignore obligations to track such arms. Meanwhile, Kyiv has been reduced to “begging for weapons” from Western partners, he added. Dmitry A. Polyanskiy, Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, addresses the Security Council meeting on threats to international peace and security.

Ukraine: ‘Existential battle for survival

Serhii Dvornyk, Counsellor for Ukraine, said the ongoing conflict is “an existential battle for survival”. “We will persevere in our fight until every Ukrainian citizen and every parcel of our sovereign land are liberated and Russia faces a military defeat in Ukraine,” he said, adding that all weapons, whether produced by Ukraine or received from its allies, serve this goal “to survive and to stop the dictatorship infected with insane imperial sentiments”. From its first attempted annexation of Crimea, Russia has “studiously cosplayed the Nazi criminals” – dressing up as Nazis themselves – even “bombing Kyiv in the early hours as Nazis once did”, he said. “The Third Reich never resurged because it was militarily defeated and its political, military, and economic leadership was brought to justice.” A “similar fate” is anticipated for Russia, and “the sooner the better, not only for Ukraine but for all of us,” he told the Council.

·??????Ukraine’s forces are confronting extensive Russian defensive fortifications along a 600-mile front line, and the counteroffensive is unlikely to go Ukraine’s way this year.

·??????Western governments could be supporting Ukraine into 2025.

·??????Ukraine will have to make choices over how the war ends and what that looks like, and a frozen conflict seems the most likely scenario.

CONCLUSION

The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. ?Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. It’s become clear that the counteroffensive won’t produce quick results and that success — however that might be measured in terms of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed.

Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian, and financial resources. “Ukraine has to show it can make progress, but everybody knows that, given the size of the force that they have, that they are not going to throw every Russian out of Ukraine in 2023,” retired British Gen. Richard Barrons, the former?commander?of?the U.K.’s Joint Forces?Command, told CNBC.“ By the end of this year, both sides will think they still have more to gain by fighting. Russia cannot give up, it can’t lose, because of the desperate consequences for the Russian regime, and Ukraine has not run out of the will to fight and isn’t prepared to give up the territory that’s been occupied, it just wants more help to take it back. And that will take us into 2024 and possibly into 2025,” he added. This seems actual based on past experience.

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