Global Recession: Week 2 Recap

Editor’s Note:?That’s a wrap on Week 2 of?Global Recession: Is Everyone Wrong??But with #markets down and investor sentiment nearing “oh s*it” levels, now isn’t really the time to stop. Instead, we’re extending this special series — there’s just too much to talk about and it’s just too important. Coming up starting next week, we’ve got another round of heavyweights, including Jim Bianco, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jared Dillian, Louis-Vincent Gave, Cathie Wood, Marko Papic, Peter Brandt, and more. And we’ve extended our special $1 for 14 days offer too.?$1 to get access to what the pros think is happening in the markets?! That’s what we call a deep value trade…

What are we missing? What can we improve on? What do we not need? Please do send your thoughts to?[email protected].

The Big Macro Trades?

Conversations between Raoul and Alex on Real Vision are always incredibly rewarding. They both come with probabilistic macro frameworks, and they love talking about where they could be wrong as well as where they could be right. Alex's role as a macro hedge fund manager is to make sense of all the input and distill it into trades that best express his probabilistic outcomes while minimizing the risk and maximizing the reward.

?Back to zero: Alex believes that Fed policy will shift back towards cutting rates to zero in the near future.

• “I would give a 10% chance of 0 rates by the end of this year, a 50% chance by end of 2023.”

Buy the dip??Alex thinks that an opportunity to buy and hold is emerging.

• “Overall, markets are not yet down, but you can start buying stuff that you will be happy to own 10 years from now.”

Watch the Whole Thing

A Commodity-Led Recession?

Dwight Anderson is one of the world's most famous and most successful commodity investors. Dwight leads Raoul on a whirlwind tour through the entire commodity complex — from gas to industrials, from energy to renewables — piecing together all of the supply issues as well as the demand equations, how they fit into the macro, and their impact on the global economy.

?On the brighter side:?Dwight believes that the world is set up for lower prices and better productivity once all of the bad news and events pass.

• “In the aggregate productivity curves, we think that you're facing much more, in the second half of this decade, falling agricultural prices and much cheaper food, once we get through these horrible series of events.”

Where will it be worst??Dwight explains what areas will be hit hardest by an economic recession should the United States continue to raise rates. He notes it will be countries already seeing currency devaluation.

• “That's where you're going to get the economic recessions, the collapse in demand, and then, in some cases, horrible human condition situations that result from that.”

Watch the Whole Thing

Will the Commodity Crisis Become a Financial Crisis??

Pierre Andurand is one of the world's most respected commodity traders — and one of the most successful, too. His understanding of the nexus of energy markets, industrial commodities, and ESG is unparalleled. Clearly, Raoul HAD to have him as part of this series to explore the risk of recession caused by higher rates and rising inflation and their impact on economies and markets.

#Recession and GFC:?Pierre talks about the economic factors at work and explains why he believes another financial crisis is likely to emerge.

• “A lot of things need to go right just to have a mild recession.”

The #copper trade:?Pierre believes that the copper trade will rebound once China is done with its latest lockdowns and resume buying at a strong rate.

• “A third of the country is in lockdown and not doing anything. They are not using much copper at the moment.”

Watch the Whole Thing

Here is a chart from the week that made us think, “wait a sec.”?

Real Vision #Crypto

Rekt Capital explains where Bitcoin price action is and what it means for the macro bull market... “Now we're seeing price reach the lower side of that range, the macro range, low in green. One of the key things to mention is that this green arrow may very well be the bulls' last stand, because what we're seeing here is a loss of two trendlines, the black trendline, which has a long-standing higher low, denoting to us that essentially, compared to mid-2021 and early 2022, we saw buyers buy Bitcoin at a higher price whenever Bitcoin dipped. Bitcoin is, essentially at this point in time, reaching an era of historical demand, reaching an era that has essentially given us two stronger vessels towards the upside.”

Also This Week

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[Podcast] Tavi Costa Envisions a Bright Future for Precious Metal Exploration

[Podcast] Darius Sit Breaks Down a Key Development in Crypto

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?The Big Bond Investor’s View