Global rebar market was marked by fluctuations in prices and demand in October

In October 2024, the global rebar market showed different price trends depending on the region. In Turkey, price growth took place amid higher scrap quotations and stable demand in the domestic market. At the same time, negative price dynamics were observed in the US due to weak demand caused by economic uncertainty. The European market was under pressure from growing competition from imported products, and in China, prices for rebar rose moderately against the background of cautious economic forecasts.

Turkey

Rebar prices in Turkey during the period September 27 – October 25, 2024 increased by 1.7% – to $580-600/t FOB. This growth continues the trend that continues for the second month in a row. Demand for rebar in the domestic market remained relatively strong, partly due to limited supply of certain assortments, which contributed to higher prices.

One of the main factors in the increase in prices for rebar is the increase in prices for scrap. American and European scrap (HMS 1&2 80:20) was priced at $376-377/t CFR, which contributed to positive dynamics in the rebar market. The increase in the value of scrap led to an increase in production costs, which Turkish steel producers compensated by increasing the prices of final products.

In addition, Turkish producers benefited from the increase in rebar prices in China, given the positive macroeconomic outlook announced by the Chinese government after the National Day celebrations. Also in October, European buyers of Turkish rebar became more active, as a new period of quotas for the import of rebar into the EU started.

In export markets, Turkish rebar faces competition from North African suppliers offering lower prices, notably at $575-580/t FOB from Egypt and $560-590/t from Algeria. Turkish prices at more than $600/t FOB seem too high for many buyers, so demand has weakened in the EU, the Balkans and Central America. Some Turkish companies tried to conclude agreements with buyers from the Balkans at a price of up to $590/t, but such agreements were isolated.

It is expected that rebar prices may stabilize at $590-610/t FOB in the coming month. Domestic demand in Turkey, especially amid shortages of certain rebar sizes, could support prices even if demand in export markets declines. Other factors that will affect the market include changes in scrap prices, the impact of macroeconomic events, including the US elections and expected actions from China’s National Congress.

Overall, in the absence of significant demand growth, the Turkish rebar market may see little price movement as manufacturers try to maintain current price levels until the end of the year.

Europe

In October 2024, the European rebar market showed different price trends: in Northern Europe, prices remained stable for the third consecutive month at €610-630/t Ex-Works, while in Italy they fell by 5.3% – to €530-540 /t Ex-Works, after a previous drop of 1.7% in September. Such a decrease in Italy is due to weak demand and a significant level of competition from import suppliers, in particular from Egypt.

Demand for rebar in Italy remains low, and buyers are limited to purchasing only minimum volumes. Many end users, especially in the construction sector, are switching to purchasing imported rebar, which are cheaper than local rebar. Egyptian suppliers, in particular, supply products to Sicily at competitive prices – around €530/t Ex-vessel. This situation increases the pressure on local producers and leads to production restrictions.

High energy and scrap costs also negatively affected the margins of Italian rebar producers. Prices for scrap in October decreased, but remain at a level that, together with other costs, do not allow maintaining the profitability of production. Many manufacturers are set to temporarily halt production for the Nov. 1 holiday, and some are planning longer shutdowns to cut costs.

Despite the attempts of ArcelorMittal and other large European producers to increase the prices of rolled products, in particular rebars, by €40/t, the market does not accept these intentions due to weak demand. In France and Germany, expectations for price increases are also restrained by low consumer activity and reduced purchasing interest by the end of the year.

It is expected that in November Italian producers may try to raise rebar prices by €30-40/t to €560-580/t. However, the success of such attempts will depend on the dynamics of demand and scrap prices. If demand remains low, Italian producers will not be able to raise prices. At the same time, competition from lower-priced North African suppliers is likely to hold back price growth in other parts of Europe as well.

USA

In the US (US Midwest), rebar quotations for the period September 27-October 25 decreased by 2% – to $710-720/t Ex-Works.

In the rebar market in the USA during October 2024, a decrease in prices was observed, caused by weak demand and significant supply. Rebar quotations in the US Midwest region between September 27 and October 25 decreased by 2% to $710-720/t Ex-Works. Since the beginning of the year, prices have never shown a monthly increase.

Demand remains weak due to election fears and economic uncertainty. In addition, a number of factors affected the market: a strike by port workers on the US East Coast led to a short-term supply disruption, and natural disasters such as Hurricanes Helen and Milton caused business disruptions in the Southeast. The dynamics of world prices for scrap and the decrease in the cost of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil also created additional pressure on the rebar market.

In the short term, rebar prices are expected to remain stable or slightly lower until after the election.

China

On the rebar market of China in October, a moderate price increase was observed – by 0.6%, to $475-476/t FOT, which is significantly lower than the August and September rates. In October, prices remained under the influence of volatile demand and macroeconomic expectations.

At the beginning of the month, the market was stable, but after the press conference of the State Council, which did not justify the investors’ hopes for the support of the real estate market, the futures for rebar fell sharply. Further easing of credit policy by the People’s Bank of China (reduction in lending rates) provided short-term optimism, but demand remained weak amid challenges in the construction sector.

Despite significant rebar inventories, the market is expected to remain relatively stable with limited volatility in the coming weeks. Macroeconomic stimulus, in particular, the expected decisions at the next meeting of the National People’s Congress, may support prices in the short term, although tangible growth is unlikely.