Facing the Future: Global Prediction System (GPS): Trans-AI Platform for personal and corporate AIs
Modern human world is full of risks and complexities and uncertainty, proceeding without any reliable predictive systems at local, national, international and global levels.
Meanwhile, there are the internet and satellite surveying networks, all sort of intelligent agencies, from CIA to FSB, traditional media, from newspapers to TV networks, social media platforms, from Google to Microsoft Bing, Twitter to YouTube, social networks services, from Facebook and LinkedIn, smart phones, and other digital data processing systems.
What we don't have, it is an intelligent global forecasting system
The future has many surprises, threats and opportunities, risks and possibilities, like as listed in the WEF's networks of global risks, geopolitical, environmental, economic, societal and technological, migration, climate change or cybersecurity.
Any global risks report costs nothing without highlighting the emerging general-purpose fundamental technologies, as AI technology, its Technological Singularity scenario, in the first place.
To my mind, of all strategic predictions, forecasting and prophesies, one of the best ones could be what was envisioned by Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and computer scientist, three decades ago, documented in his article "Technological Singularity" presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center, March 30-31, 1993.
Here is the abstract: "The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence. Science may achieve this breakthrough by several means (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):
Computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent may be developed.?
Large computer networks and their associated users may "wake up" as superhumanly intelligent entities.
Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.
Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect...
?I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030".
Vinge has forecasted that humans will have the technological means to develop superhuman intelligence within the next 30 years. In 2008, Vinge published a report “Signs of the Singularity”, confirming his claims of 1993, while highlighting possible threats as nuclear war, climate change and plagues, as Covid-19.?
Now, we have the Statement on AI Risk | CAIS, Center for AI Safety: “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war”.
Predicting the Singularities: the Techno-Singularity is here
Commonly, "the Singularity refers to the emergence of super-intelligent machines with capabilities that cannot be predicted by humans".
"The predicted point in societal evolution when technological progress accelerates beyond the ability of humans to fully comprehend or predict", "a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules", could be defined as the techno-singularity.
The problem is aggravated by out incapacity to predict not only technological revolutions, but also singular socio-economic and geopolitical events, metaphorically dubbed as "black swan" events, having an extreme, disruptive impact on all the world, such as:
the USSR dissolution, the September 11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, Covid-19, the Russo-Ukrainian war...
They are all ingloriously missing in the WEF-like global risks networks, having no real utility.
Again, we are unaware of the the emerging AI Singularity a radical transformation of the economic, political, socio-technological systems worldwide. ?All our best forecast is by 2030, AI is to add $15 trillion to the global economy, while, in reality, it is to disrupt all the global socio-economic-political order, including the risk of extinction, as in the mentioned Statement on AI Risk.
And this is regardless of the fact that AI is one of the top priorities of policy agendas for most of the countries at both national and international levels. AI is one of the top priorities of the agendas of the international and regional organizations such as the United Nations (UN), aiming to apply it to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Group of Seven (G7), Group of Twenty (G20), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), the European Union (EU), the League of Arab States (LAS), the African Union (AU), the World Economic Forum, and others.
This international effort aims at building a common understanding of emerging AI technologies, which could make best predictions and decisions about the future.
Given all that, I outline the concept of Trans-AI (transdisciplinary, transformative and translational) Platform for real-world predictive systems, automated decision-making systems
Trans-AI enables the development of personal and collective AIs, intelligent digital realities, smart social media sites and networks platforms, cognitive robotic systems, the internet of things, etc.
Why humanity needs a Trans-, Hyper, or Meta-AI Future
As I mentioned, our complex world is full of risks, complexity and uncertainty, proceeding without any reliable predictive and prescriptive systems at local, national, international and global levels.
We have the internet and satellite surveying networks and social media networks, all sort of digital data processing systems. What we don't have, it is an intelligent global forecasting system (GPS) to predict futures and their implications, all possible global trends and trajectories.
The essence of any intellectual activities is prediction or forecasting, the power to infer future events or data, to describe the past, present and future behavior of specific objects, systems, processes, or the whole universe.
In a big sense, intelligence is prediction, and vice versa. "Intelligence, at its core, involves the ability to model the world in order to predict and respond effectively to future events".
Scientific theories, observations and experimentation, mathematical equations and mathematical modeling, statistical models and computer modeling and simulation, all serve as modern prediction tools.?
There is future studies, or?futurology, futures research,?strategic foresignt,?futuristics,?futures thinking,?futuring, as the science, art, and practice of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures and the worldviews, culture, religions and myths that underlie them.? It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map the best possible futures.
AI Data Science and its Data scientists use predictive analytics techniques
Predictive analytics analyzing data and building analytics models to predict future outcomes is unable to forecast abnormal, anomalous and catastrophic events due to its non-realistic statistical assumptions. Statistics, as its machine statistical learning algorithms, deals with normally distributed random samples as the sets of Independent and identically distributed random variables or data points (IID).
Such predictive analytics models are designed to assess historical data, discover statistical patterns, observe trends, and use that information to predict future trends, measuring biases in prediction as various loss functions, optimizing regression and classification losses, as in ML models.
Popular predictive analytics models include:
classification models fall under the branch of?supervised?machine learning models, logistic regression, decision trees, random forest, neural networks, and Na?ve Bayes;
clustering models fall under?unsupervised learning, as k-means clustering, mean-shift clustering, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN), expectation-maximization (EM) clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), and hierarchical clustering;
Time series models plotting the dependent variable over time to assess the data for seasonality, trends, and cyclical behavior, with specific transformations and model types, as autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA), ARMA, and ARIMA models.
In reality, we have to deal with "a network of dependent, differently distributed (DDD) random causal variables", instead of an idealized "sequence of independent, identically distributed (IID) random data points".
The probabilities of the product events for any?events are NOT equal to the product of the probabilities of each event, and future ones don't behave like past ones.?
Global Prediction Systems Projects
There are a few projects addressing some aspects of global prediction systems, as in:
Next Generation Global Prediction System?(NGGPS) to provide weather, water, and climate information to protect life and property, and enhance the national economy
Google Search relying on deep neural networks, handling more than 3.5 billion searches per day, with a 92% share of the global search engine market. Organizing the world’s information or rather the web's information of?ever-expanding universe of web pages, images, videos, real-world insights and all the other forms of information out there and making it universally accessible and useful
Strategic Intelligence, Strategic insights and contextual intelligence from the World Economic Forum. Explore and monitor the issues and forces driving transformational change across economies, industries, and global issues
Symantec Global Intelligence Network, applying artificial intelligence to analyze over 9 petabytes of security threat data, Symantec offers the broadest and deepest set of threat intelligence in the industry
Predictive Technology Systems (PTS) employing big data management, AI, machine learning, and cloud technologies to improve the efficiency of investment firms
Intelligent Forecasting and Scenario Modeling, an AI forecasting and planning engine leverages machine learning, Microsoft Technology, to address a wide range of business planning needs and challenges across an enterprise
Global Predictions building a digital twin of the economy to make unbiased forecasts into the future using hyperconnected simulations, economic modeling, diverse data streams, and machine learning
The Big Tech ML/DL big data analytics platforms, using currently acquired massive quantities of internet/web data to deliver faster, more precise and accurate results.
From Digital AI assistants to Personal AIs for Everyone and Everybody
There is a wild idea: 8 billion people - 8 billion personal AI models, as well as any legal entity is supposed to train its ML model.
All in all, there are Dummy AI, as Individual Intelligence AI models or Collective Intelligence AI models, or Real/True Trans-AI models.
The first two models go as dummy AIs because of being a model or replica of a human being or a legal entity, a business, institution, government, etc.
Personal AI MODEL is designed to serve a self, a unique model that is a personal reflection of you. It is digital twin or physical clone of yourself.
It roots itself in your truths and opinions. It mirrors your voice, your style, and everything about you. Personal AI is built and owned by you, controlled by you, and unbiased by the world. It is featured by Individualized interaction; Continuous learning; and Data privacy.
Personal AI is a blank slate in that each model, when born, is like an unmolded block of clay. It comes with no existing unique knowledge or expertise. It is up to you, the individual, to give your Personal AI experiences and information to train on so it can better understand and serve you.
This is not a Large Language Model. This is not owned by big tech. This is your personal AI. Personal AI is an ultra-small and ultra-personal model that is 120M parameters in size, in contrast to the 170B+ parameter Large Language Models.
Corporate AI Platforms: from Google to Microsoft
Corporate LLMs/AI Models illegally scraping training data from the internet and open to the general public as a commercial service
Global AI Platform as the World Knowledge and Learning, Inference and Interaction Model Engine
Trans-AI Models are transgressing all the personal and collective AI models, see the link.
As a practical example, the GAIP could serve as the foundation for integrating Google's products and services and platforms:
What are some of singular emerging technologies to be predicted by the GPS?
There are a lot of emerging technologies, from A/C robotics to future space technologies, with more to come.
Still, the master technology of all technologies is machine superintelligence technology as true artificial intelligence inventions, powerful to deeply understand and effectively interact with the world, physical or simulated, be it geospace, cyberspace or cosmic space [Trans-AI: How to Build True AI or Real Machine Intelligence and Learning].
Advanced Machine Learning techniques power many of the data analytics inventions and services today: recommendation systems from Netflix, YouTube, and Spotify; search engines from Google and Baidu and Microsoft; social-media feeds from Facebook and Twitter; voice assistants from Cortana, Siri and Alexa; or metaverse technologies.
What all of them can’t do, it is to understand the world itself, its realities and its causality, which is the essence of any powerful intelligence, human or machine.
Many are afraid that as an AI quantum supercomputer becomes capable of judging cause and effect, it quickly determines who is the cause of many of the planet’s problems.
So, the hardest part in the whole AI enterprise is the World Knowledge and Learning, Inference and Interaction Model Engine. The AI World Engine enables an Intelligent GPS, explaining, forecasting and predicting all future probabilities and possibilities.
Conclusion: 10 Predictions from the GPS, or the Ways AI Will Transform Our World in the Next Decade
1. AI will achieve hyper-intelligence level.
Hyperintelligent Systems will emerge that can perform complex decision-making, reasoning, problem-solving, learning transfer and creativity at suprahuman levels.
2. Revolutionize human world.
AI as Augmented Intelligence will gain widespread adoption in all parts of human live, as in healthcare diagnosing diseases, personalized treatment plans
3. Self-driving autonomous transportation will dominate the land, sea, air and space.
Artificial Intelligence will power fully autonomous transportation. Millions of jobs like taxi, truck, and Uber drivers will be disrupted.
4. It will accelerate discoveries in science.
AI will automate scientific studies, complex experiments, generating and testing hypotheses and theories, and uncover causal patterns in huge scientific datasets. Breakthroughs will emerge in quantum mechanics, materials science, renewable energy, genetics, and other fields, making fundamental discoveries about the universe and develop a new “Theory of Everything”.
5. AI will enhance and reshape education.
AI will enable personalized, tailored education
6. AI will disrupt all professions.
All present jobs and professions will be eliminated as AI takes over tasks, while new jobs will emerge to train, explain and oversee the AI systems.
7. AI will generate a vast amount of wealth.
The widespread adoption of AI across industries will significantly boost economic growth and productivity.
Much of the profits may go to a small group of big tech companies if the human-like and human-level AI is to dominate, increasing inequality. It could also trigger global tensions by disrupting economies and job markets at different rates in different countries.
8. Accelerate the rise of robotics and automation.
Industries will operate almost exclusively with autonomous robotic systems as key elements of hyperintelligent hyperautomation.
9. Reshape global power dynamics.
AI will alter geopolitical power balances. AI superiority may become more strategically important than nuclear weapons.
10. AI will make staggering progress in the next 5-10 years.
Humans will complement superintelligent systems, as a key part of the human-machine hyperintelligence.
Resources
V. Vinge, “Technological singularity,” in?VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, 1993, pp. 30–31.
V. Vinge, “Signs of the singularity,”?IEEE Spectr., vol. 45, no. 6, pp. 76–82, 2008.
As humanity stands on the brink of a technology triggered?information revolution, the scale, scope and complexity of the impact of intelligence evolution in machines is unlike anything humankind has experienced before. As a result, the speed at which the ideas, innovations and inventions are emerging on the back of artificial intelligence has no historical precedent and is fundamentally disrupting everything in the human ecosystem.
In addition, the breadth, depth and impact of this intelligence evolution on furthering of ideas and innovations across cyberspace, geospace and space (CGS) herald the fundamental transformation of entire interconnected and interdependent systems of basic and applied science: research and development, concept to commercialization, politics to governance, socialization to capitalism, education to training, production to markets, survival to security and more.
The technology triggered?intelligence evolution?in machines and the linkages between ideas, innovations and trends have in fact brought us on the doorsteps of?singularity.
Global risks ranked by severity, Source World Economic Forum, Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023
Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological "Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year and 10-year period"
1 Failure to mitigate climate change
2 Failure of climate-change adaption
3 Natural disasters and extreme weather events
4 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
5 Large-scale involuntary migration
6 Natural resource crises
7 Erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization
8 Widespread cybercrime and cyber insecurity
9 Geoeconomic confrontation
10 Large-scale environmental damage incidents
11 Misinformation and disinformation
12 Ineffectiveness of multilateral institutions and international cooperation
13 Interstate conflict
14 Debt crises
15 Cost-of-living crisis
16 Breakdown of critical information infrastructure
17 Digital power concentration
18 Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies
19 Failure to stabilize price trajectories
20 Chronic diseases and health conditions
21 Prolonged economic downturn
22 State collapse or severe instability
23 Employment crises
24 Collapse of a systemically important industry or supply chain
25 Severe mental health deterioration
26 Collapse or lack of public infrastructure and services
27 Infectious diseases
28 Use of weapons of mass destruction
29 Proliferation of illicit economic activity
30 Digital inequality and lack of access to digital services
31 Asset bubble bursts
32 Terrorist attacks
One path finder
1 年Is it a precursor to a global protection system or a risk mitigation technique after the fact!!! Which is like RIGHT NOW.