Global poverty after covid 19

IMPACTS OF COVID-19 ON POVERTY

The severity of impacts by ?COVID-19 with the highest intensity has been depicted broadly in all spheres of human life on a global basis, loss of human beings at very large scale, loss of jobs across sectors, and the disruption of economic activity globally created this gloomy scenario, which has almost reversed the benefit of globalization, a concerted effort to alleviate abject poverty spheres in advanced, developing, and underdeveloped countries similarly. The rapid pace of its spread worldwide has been unparalleled in entire human history. Almost entire activities have come to a grinding halt.

?The collateral damage has been made in massive job losses, economic shrinkage, falling investments and exports, and declining tourism. The severe impact of COVID-19 on poverty was known after poverty estimates from household survey data extracted after a year or two. Economic growth is the largest driver of poverty reduction. Conversely, economic recessions drive a rise in poverty as other things were not equal in 2020.

?Countries responded proactively to the pandemic with large social spending programs to moderate the worst of the economic shock and keep families surviving.. COVID-19 will accentuate the long-term concentration of poverty in countries that are middle-income, fragile, and conflict-affected, and located in Africa.

?Advanced economies provided trillions of dollars of direct and indirect fiscal support, equivalent to 28% of their GDP, emerging and developing economies spent 7 percent and 2 percent of GDP respectively. The World Bank estimates that in March 2020, there were 103 active social protection programs in 45 countries and it soared to?1414 programs in 215 countries.?by December 2020. These measures helped many families from falling back into abject poverty.

?LONG-TERM POVERTY IMPACTs???

Global poverty had been declining before COVID-19. Extreme poverty is defined as those living in households spending less than $1.90 per person per day in 2011 PPP terms, had fallen from 1.9 billion people in 1990 to 648 million in 2019, and was on pace to reach 537 million by 2030. COVID-19 interrupted this trend. The absolute number of people living in extreme poverty rose for the firs

REVERSING THE TREND

?These drifts can be reversed if concerted efforts are made by countries with the help of the opportunity available by COVID-19 to put in place social protection programs to support the most vulnerable. While the proliferation of social protection programs in 2020 is billed as a temporary measure, as the infrastructure is in place, these programs can continue to provide assistance for the poor and help them move out of poverty. Big data and machine learning can aid in these efforts, helping governments better identify and target those in need. For example, in response to COVID-19, the government of Togo worked with researchers to use satellite data on population density and mobile phone usage data from Facebook to target cash transfers to the poor. ?The experience gained to be used by targeting, verification, enrolment, and payment processing are being absorbed by other countries with limited capacity.

??. As a result of long-term scarring, we estimate that by 2030, 588 million people could still live in extreme poverty, an additional 50 million people compared with pre-COVID-19 estimates.

These long-term impacts are concentrated in specific countries. According to the latest IMF growth projections, 33 developing countries will still have 2026 per capita income levels (in 2017 PPP terms) below their 2019 levels. Fifteen are in sub-Saharan Africa and nine are small island developing states. In these countries, long-term economic stagnation complicates poverty reduction efforts. High population growth also hinders progress in some countries, with more people being born into poverty than are escaping it.

?COVID-19 will deepen the long-term concentration of poverty in countries that are middle-income, fragile, and conflict-affected, and located in Africa. By 2030, the nine countries with the largest numbers of extreme poor will be in Africa, with Burundi and North Korea tied for tenth place. While poverty was traditionally concentrated in low-income countries, a number of middle-income countries will have large poor populations in 2030, including Nigeria, Tanzania, Angola, and Uganda.

?It is estimated that the global poverty gap would require the amount of money it would take to presumably bring everyone in the world above the extreme poverty line if there were zero transaction costs, is around $100 billion and is set to stay at this level till 2030. To put this in a comparative context,?net bilateral Development Assistance Committee(DAC) and multilateral overseas development assistance (ODA) flows for 2020 amounted to $161 billion; an incremental $70 billion private?philanthropy also being allocated to tackle poverty. While there are many dimensions to poverty other than income poverty, the order of magnitude suggests that mobilizing more aid and government resources should be complemented by a renewed focus on targeting aid flows to the right places.

?These efforts should be combined with larger structural reform efforts. Poverty is likely to remain high in the countries highlighted above because growth becomes muted. Larger-scale reform efforts are made in places like Nigeria to get the macroeconomic fundamentals right and to enable long-term growth. While social protection programs are needed to help support struggling families, in the end, greater economic growth is the fastest way to bring people out of poverty.