Global population dynamics: Navigating the future beyond numbers

In 2022, the UN marked a significant demographic milestone: the global population surpassed 8 billion. In many parts of the developing world, populations are still rapidly increasing, with projections indicating a potential doubling by 2050. This growth reflects advancements in health and living standards, yet it masks a complex reality. Notably, two-thirds of the global population today reside in a country or area with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Over 60 countries, including the 15 biggest economies in the world, are experiencing declining populations due to lower fertility rates and increased emigration.

Those contrasting trends suggest that global population dynamics are a tapestry of differing realities. Demographic shifts present complex challenges for sustainable development yet addressing them requires more than population policies. It calls for a reassessment of development models and future trajectories.

By the middle of the century, the global population is expected to approach ten billion and then stabilize at around 10.4 billion in the 2080s, at its projected peak. Historically, population growth paralleled improvements in health, education, and well-being. Yet, the consequences of declining populations are less clear, with potential impacts on innovation and human potential. Research indicates a correlation between demographic structures and innovation rates, indicating that population dynamics could influence creativity and societal progress.

Today, the 65-74 age group is so sizeable that, collectively, it would constitute the third most populous country globally, with numbers expected to reach 800 million by mid-century. While the effects of an aging population on the workforce, pension systems, and care economy are frequently discussed, numerous other aspects also merit consideration. For example, the implications of this demographic shift for the knowledge economy, social cohesion, or inter- generational justice.

Population trends often evoke polarized views: a large youth population is sometimes seen as destabilizing, an aging population as burdensome, and migration as a threat. These extreme and one dimensional views, often rooted in fear and insecurity, oversimplify the complex challenges of demographic shifts. Even before Covid-19, UNDP highlighted that more than six in seven people globally said they feel insecure. Amid these fears, it is easy to see demographic headlines as indicators of a looming crisis. But such narratives fail to prepare societies for future population dynamics and risk creating yet another divide – a demographic one.

The discourse around 'too few or too many people' obscures the real challenges the world faces today, which relate more to our unsustainable production and consumption patterns than to reproduction rates. One in six people in the world today are aged 15-24, with young people growing rapidly, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. By 2030, young Africans are expected to constitute 42% of the global youth. And by 2050, over 25% of the world's population will be African. Yet, on energy consumption alone, the average North American emits 11 times more

energy-related CO2 than the average African. An average person in the United States consumes 40 times as much food, energy, consumer goods and so on as the average African.

Decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions and environmental degradation, promoting gender equality, increasing investments in education and health coverage, and enhancing social protection are all more vital to our collective well-being as humanity than either encouraging or discouraging women from having children.

Achieving gender parity in the workforce, for example, would do more to improve productivity and sustain economies in aging countries than increasing birth rates (with notable examples of this in Japan, Sweden and Norway). Investing in human capital, particularly in developing countries, would yield demographic dividends and help bridge labor supply and demand disparities. This requires bridging the gap between current education systems and the digital divide to align with the needs of future economies. Additionally, it involves rethinking ‘community’ and inclusivity, especially in the context of migration policies.

In an era of shifting demographic patterns, it is crucial to move beyond divisive narratives towards recognizing our shared interdependence. The decisions and choices we make now, be they about tackling climate change, investing in people, or addressing environmental issues, will have far-reaching consequences for all our societies and our capacity to cater to both present and future generations.