Global Oil Demand looking to be +8% from 2013
IEA sighting global oil demand to hit in excess of 97 Million barrels per day, up from just over 90 million barrels per day 3 years ago
The news seems to be dominated by "gluts" in oil supply, but when we look at oil demand, its on the increase and in second half of the year we could be hitting 97 million barrels per day demand that is like 8% + up over 3 years. Despite all the tales of doom and gloom, oil demand hitting new global highs this year...
Formerly Officer on Special Duty (Energy & Climate Change) to Government of India. Thinker, Mentor - Capacity Building through knowledge sharing & application of Mind.
8 年There has never been oil glut, but markets were well supplied even during high price between 2006-2014. Wish for US$ 100 per bbl of oil price would depend upon money available in the pockets to be deployed on speculative paper trade. Futures predict an average of 45-55 US$ per bbl oil prices till 2022. Shale's in USA are not swing producer but have become main producer and are the second largest producer to the largest conventional producer of oil globally. The story of shales is not short term but will remain long term at-least for 40 to 100 years. It is technology innovations and cost reductions will make shales producing for long years.
Equity Research - Energy
8 年Any rally in oil prices soon enough would be self defeating at $50-60/bbl when swing shale producers would turn on their taps. Unless the upstream capex cycle gets totally distorted supply will also catch up with demand. Plus don't know what price OAPEC maybe targeting to ward off long term competition.
Chief Energy Modeller
8 年Sorry for being overly pedantic but I run the IEA's demand forecasting division, and we have global oil demand forecast to average 96.6 mb/d in second half of 2016...close but not technically "in excess"