Global and Mexican Energy Outlook: 2022-2045 Insights

Between 2022 and 2045, renewable energies are expected to experience their highest growth rates globally, although oil will continue to hold the largest share of the world's energy mix, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Renewable energies, particularly solar photovoltaic and wind power, are projected to see "strong growth," equivalent to 34.3MMboe/d, stated the organization in its recently published 2024 World Oil Outlook, which looks ahead to 2045.

Regarding other clean energy sources, OPEC estimates their share will increase from 2% in 2022 to 11.7% by 2045. However, OPEC predicts that the demand for all primary fuels will grow, except for coal, due to energy policies and climate commitments.

As for oil, its demand is expected to account for 29.5% of the global total by 2024. "Oil demand will also grow significantly and, although its share in the energy mix will decrease modestly, it will remain the fuel with the largest share in 2045, at 29.5%," the report highlighted.

Crude oil demand shows strong growth in the medium term, and by 2045, it is projected to reach an average of 116MMb/d by 2028, representing an increase of 10.612MMb/d compared to 2022, the report explained.

Under the leadership of Haitham Al Ghais, Secretary General, OPEC anticipates that by 2045, the combination of oil and natural gas will constitute 54% of the world's total energy mix. The report noted that gas demand will rise by 20MMboe over the specified period, reaching 87MMboe in 2045.

Regarding the future of Mexico in the Energy Sector, SENER released the National Electricity System Development Program (PRODESEN 2024-2038) which covers topics such as electromobility, distributed generation, and the expansion and modernization of transmission and distribution lines, among other areas.?

The document includes detailed forecasts of electricity demand and consumption for the 2024-2038 period. With this update to PRODESEN, the Mexican government outlines future projects and investments that will ensure an accessible, reliable, and sustainable electricity supply. This initiative aims to support the country's social and economic development while fulfilling Mexico's international commitments to fight global warming.

According to PRODESEN, electricity demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.5%, potentially reaching 3%. These estimates may be conservative, as the increase in electricity demand in 2022 and 2023 was 3.4% and 3.5%, respectively. By 2038, the annual net consumption is projected to be 495,781GWh, which represents a 38.2% increase compared to the estimated 358,670GWh for 2024.

However, due to Mexico’s current situation regarding renewable energy, the country is projected to miss its 2024 target for electricity generation from clean sources, continuing a downward trend in greenhouse gas-free energy production for the second consecutive year, reports El Economista. In 2023, clean energy production dropped by 8.2% to 85.5GWh, reducing its share of total generation from 27.5% to 24.3%, according to PRODESEN 2024-2038. This shortfall moves Mexico further away from its goal of 35% clean energy by 2024, established under the country's ratification of the 2016 Paris Agreement.