The OECD forecasts global growth at 3.2% for 2024, with an upward revision for 2025 to 3.3%.
- Initial jobless claims rose to 224K (highest in a month) from 215K.
- October construction spending increased 0.4% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected).
- ISM Manufacturing Index improved to 48.4 but remained contractionary.
- ISM Services Index fell to 52.1 (below 55.6 forecast).
- UST yields: 2Y down 4bps, 10Y down 3bps, 30Y up 0.2bps.
- Electronics PMI rose to 51.6 in November, marking 13 consecutive months of expansion. Overall PMI increased to 51, possibly driven by export front-loading ahead of potential US tariffs.
- GDP grew 0.1% m/m in October, while Q3 GDP expanded 1.0% q/q SAAR, below the Bank of Canada’s 1.5% projection.
- Q3 GDP grew 0.3% q/q, 0.8% y/y—below forecasts and the weakest y/y growth since 1991 (excluding the pandemic).
- CPI rose 2.3% y/y in November; core inflation steady at 2.7% (below 2.8% forecast).
- Final manufacturing PMI at 45.2; German, French, and Italian prints revised lower.
- Unemployment remained at 6.3%, with Italy easing to 5.8% (from 6.0%).
- Official manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.3, and Caixin PMI rose to 51.5, driven by fiscal stimulus.
- Non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.0.
- Investors remain cautious about 2025 US tariffs.
- CPI rose to 1.5% in November (below 1.7% forecast).
- Political turmoil following President Yoon’s failed martial law attempt may prompt impeachment and early elections in 2025.
- BoK could cut rates by 25bps at its 16 January meeting.
- USD/KRW likely to stay above 1,400 amid political risks.
