Global Markets Mid Year Outlook 2019
Macro Themes and Market Outlooks - Q3 2019
After a strong first half to the year for most major equity and bond markets, what does H2 have in store? In the list below, we link to insights and analysis from the world's leading asset management firms.
Multi-Asset Outlook — Central banks to the rescue? (Wellington, Jun 2019)
Do the monetary authorities have the tools to respond to slowing economic growth and the effects of geopolitical tensions? In this brief paper, Wellington strategists offer their views and consider the implications for equities, fixed income, and commodities.
2019 Midyear Global Investment Outlook (Nuveen, Jul 2019)
This 13-page paper by Nuveen takes the temperature of the global investment environment. Mid-year insights cover global fixed income, global equities, real assets, responsible investing, and more.
Capturing the Asian century: tapping into Asia’s growth (Manulife IM, Jun 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in Certain Geographies)
This paper by Manulife Investment Management takes a closer look at the economic fundamentals that underpin Asia's growth prospects, as well as key developments that have made the region more accessible and appealing to global investors.
The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market (PGIM Fixed Income, Jun 2019)
In this eight-page paper, economists from PGIM analyse the development of U.S. job creation market since the financial crisis, and find evidence which demonstrates a continuing intensity in the polarization of the jobs market.
Global Fixed Income Strategy (Invesco, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in Certain Geographies)
This 23-page paper examines the interest rate and currency outlooks, together with a number of other global investment themes of relevance to global fixed income investors.
Signs of Danger in CLOs? Not So Fast (PineBridge, Jun 2019)
Some commentators warn that collateralized loan obligations will be the next harbingers of doom. A coming economic slowdown, they say, will see CLOs suffer the same fate that CDOs suffered prior to the 2008 GFC. This paper argues a contrary view - that CLOs will actually perform well in the next downturn.
The impact of ESG momentum on valuations (Lyxor ETF, 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK & Europe)
Lyxor reports upon analysis from MSCI, which provides evidence that a change in a company's ESG score (or as MSCI calls it, ‘ESG momentum’) is correlated with its future price return.
U.S. Equities and Technology Q2 2019: The Next Big Things (Baillie Gifford)
Baillie Gifford’s Tom Slater recently met with Amazon CEO, Jeff Bezos, in Seattle. Following that meeting, he shares his latest thoughts on various aspects of technological innovation, including the long-term potential of the cloud, media services, grocery and healthcare sectors.
Multi-asset market outlook (Robeco, Jul 2019)
This monthly document by Robeco provides insights into the outlook for global equities, bonds, and foreign exchange. The authors also provide a brief regional economic analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, and China.
Economic Outlook Q3 2019: Japanification (Hermes IM, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the United States)
With central banks again turning dovish, comparison with Japan becomes more compelling. Normalisation of monetary policy has failed, and in a climate of 'Japanification', QE may be little more than half-finished, continuing to cap bond yields for an extended period. In this 12 page note, Hermes examines some of the similarities and differences.
Monthly Market Monitor (Eaton Vance, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the United States & Canada)
Eaton Vance's 40-page "Monthly Market Monitor" uses a chartbook format to provide a helpful review of economic and market data.
CIO View: From a trade dispute to a trade war. And back? (DWS AM, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the UK)
This quarterly presentation from DWS Asset Management CIO, Stefan Kreuzkamp, outlines the firm's latest thinking on the economic and market outlook.
Global Macro Outlook (AB, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in Certain Geographies)
This 16-page monthly report presents economic, interest rate and currency forecasts from AB's global team of economists.
Midyear Outlook: Reining In Risk (Franklin Templeton, Jul 2019)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in Certain Geographies)
Available as a PDF or a 25-minute podcast, Franklin Templeton's Mid-year Outlook discusses the investment opportunities and risks, and how "defensible space" can be found in these uncertain times.
Multi Asset Monthly: Don't fight the Fed (NNIP, Jul 2019)
In this 13-page document, NNIP strategists examine the economic and markets outlook and provide asset allocation advice, echoing the old mantra to not "fight the Fed".
Q3 Global Macro Outlook (Manulife IM)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in Certain Geographies)
In this 36-page quarterly document, Manulife provides the thinking behind their short-term asset allocation views and longer-term forecasts, covering the key global macroeconomic themes that they believe will impact investment markets.
Global Real Estate Outlook: Striking the Right Balance (PGIM Real Estate, May 2019)
Sentiment towards real estate markets is under pressure, partly due to the age of the current cycle, and partly because of weaker economic news. However, real estate pricing will continue to be supported by low interest rates and there are reasons for optimism.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew Perrins is a former Actuary and Asset Allocator. as an Actuary, he worked for 15 years in, serving as Director of Asset Allocation for Abbey Life Chase Manhattan, before setting out on a more entrepreneurial path.
To contact him, email [email protected]