Global markets in flux: Tariffs stir the pot, CPI cools the heat

Key points:

• U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, effective March 12, 2025, sparked EU and Canadian retaliation, escalating trade tensions. This tit-for-tat war injects uncertainty into fragile global risk sentiment, reminiscent of a high-stakes chess game shifting power with each move.
• U.S. February CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, 3.1% year-on-year, below expected 0.3% and 3.2%, easing stagflation fears. S&P 500 gained 0.5%, Nasdaq 1.2%, and VIX fell to 24.23, as softer inflation lifted risk sentiment despite tariff-driven cost concerns.
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.312%, 2-year up 4.3 to 3.987%, narrowing the spread to 32.6 basis points. This shift hints at growth worries, but also a Fed pause on rate cuts, guided by data.
• Europe’s DAX surged 1.6% despite tariff fears, while ECB’s Lagarde warned of inflationary shocks. Canada cut rates to 2.75%, bracing for a “new crisis” as U.S. tariffs threaten its export-heavy economy, showing resilience and vulnerability in equal measure.
• Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $83,511.6, but recession and trade war fears linger. Ethereum’s ETH/BTC fell 1.5% to 0.022, RSI at 23.32, signaling a persistent downtrend. Crypto reflects broader risk asset struggles amid global uncertainty.
• Tariffs could spike steel prices 10-20%, raising costs, offset by softer CPI and Fed stability. Gold up 0.6%, Brent crude 2%, yet global risk sentiment teeters between trade war risks and hope for stabilization as central banks adapt.

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The situation today feels like a high-stakes chess game, with each move—whether it’s a tariff imposition or a central bank decision—shifting the balance of power and sentiment. The escalation of trade tensions, sparked by the US’s imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports effective March 12, 2025, has sent shockwaves through global risk sentiment, and it’s a story worth unpacking in detail.

Let me offer my perspective on what’s happening, grounded in the facts and data at hand, and explore what this means for markets, economies, and even the average person watching from the sidelines.

The US tariffs, which hit the ground running yesterday, mark a bold escalation in President Donald Trump’s trade agenda. This isn’t a new playbook—during his first term, Trump levied similar duties on steel and aluminium in 2018, only to later exempt Canada and Mexico in 2019 after negotiations.

This time, though, the scope feels broader and the rhetoric sharper. The immediate retaliation from the European Union, with plans for tariffs on €26 billion (US$28.3 billion) of American goods, and Canada’s counterpunch of US$21 billion in tariffs on US exports, signal that trading partners aren’t backing down.

This tit-for-tat dynamic is classic trade war territory, and it’s injecting a heavy dose of uncertainty into an already fragile global risk sentiment. From my vantage point, it’s clear that markets are wrestling with two competing forces: the fear of economic disruption and the hope that cooler heads—or at least softer data—might prevail.

Take the US February CPI data released yesterday, for instance. It came in at +0.2 per cent month-on-month and 3.1 per cent year-on-year, undercutting expectations of 0.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively. The softer print, driven largely by weaker services inflation, was a sigh of relief for investors who’ve been jittery about stagflation—a toxic mix of stagnant growth and rising prices.

In a world where Trump’s tariffs could easily stoke inflation by driving up the cost of imported goods, this data offered a counter-narrative: maybe price pressures aren’t as relentless as feared. The market reaction was telling. The S&P 500 climbed 0.5 per cent, buoyed by mega-cap tech stocks that have become the darlings of this volatile era, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.2 per cent.

The VIX, often dubbed Wall Street’s “fear index,” slid to 24.23 from 26.92, marking its second day of easing. It’s not a full-on celebration—24.23 is still elevated compared to calmer times—but it’s a sign that the CPI data gave risk sentiment a much-needed lift.

Yet, beneath the surface, the bond market told a slightly different story. The 10-year US Treasury yield ticked up 3.3 basis points to 4.312 per cent, while the 2-year yield rose more sharply by 4.3 basis points to 3.987 per cent. This narrowed the yield spread between the two to 32.6 basis points, a subtle shift that hints at shifting expectations about growth and inflation.

Typically, a narrower spread can signal concerns about economic slowdown, but in this case, it might also reflect a market pricing in the Fed’s likely pause on rate cuts. The softer CPI didn’t dismantle the narrative of a patient Federal Reserve, which has been signaling it’s in no rush to ease policy further unless growth takes a serious hit.?For now, the Fed seems content to let the data guide its hand, and investors are hanging on every number.

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s response to the tariff saga has been a mix of resilience and defiance. The DAX surged 1.6 per cent, leading a broader recovery in European indices that had been battered by tariff fears earlier this week. It’s a fascinating contrast: while the EU is gearing up to hit back at the US, its markets are finding some footing, perhaps buoyed by the US inflation reprieve and a sense that trade fragmentation, while disruptive, isn’t an immediate death knell.

ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday added another layer to this narrative. She warned that large shocks—like these tariffs—could amplify inflationary risks and lead to “more disruptive relative price changes.” It’s a sober reminder that Europe isn’t just a bystander in this trade war; it’s a player with its own vulnerabilities, especially given its export-driven economies like Germany.

Meanwhile, in Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) made its move, trimming its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, right on cue with market expectations. But the tone from the BoC was anything but routine. Governor Tiff Macklem didn’t mince words, cautioning about “a new crisis” as the central bank braces for the fallout from US tariffs. Canada, which sends about 75 per cent of its exports to the US, is uniquely exposed here.

Steel and aluminium tariffs could hammer its industrial sector, and the ripple effects—think weaker growth, a softer loonie, and higher import costs—could test the BoC’s resolve. From my perspective, this rate cut feels like a preemptive strike, a way to cushion the economy against what’s coming. But Macklem’s crisis talk suggests the bank knows it might need to do more if the trade war digs in.

Then there’s the crypto angle, which adds a wild card to this already complex picture. Bitcoin climbed 1.8 per cent to US$83,511.6 early today, catching a tailwind from Wall Street’s overnight rebound. It’s a modest recovery from its weakest levels this year, but the bigger story is what’s holding it back: recession fears and trade war jitters. Trump’s tariffs, now in effect, and his promise of reciprocal duties by April 2—potentially targeting Europe with even higher rates—keep markets on edge.

The idea that these policies could choke global trade, juice US inflation, and tip the economy into recession isn’t just theoretical; it’s a scenario traders are pricing in. Trump and his team have brushed off these concerns, framing any turbulence as a necessary growing pain for their agenda. But their flip-flopping—like granting Canada and Mexico a temporary reprieve on some tariffs—only fuels the uncertainty.

Ethereum’s story is even bleaker. The ETH/BTC pair, which measures Ether’s strength against Bitcoin, slumped over 1.5 per cent to 0.022, its lowest since May 2020. That’s part of a brutal multi-year slide—down more than 85 per cent from its 2017 peak of 0.156. The two-week ETH/BTC chart shows the relative strength index (RSI) at a record low of 23.32, deep in oversold territory.

Normally, an RSI below 30 hints at a potential bounce, but Ether’s relentless decline suggests the downtrend has legs. As a journalist, I see this as a microcosm of broader market dynamics: risk assets, even speculative ones like crypto, are struggling to find solid ground amid all this noise.

Stepping back, what strikes me most is the interplay between fear and hope in these markets. The US tariffs are a tangible threat—steel and aluminium prices could spike 10-20 per cent based on 2018 precedent, jacking up costs for everything from cars to construction. Jobs might tick up in those sectors, but downstream industries could bleed positions as costs rise.

Canada’s retaliation, targeting US$21 billion in US goods, and the EU’s US$28.3 billion counterstrike, amplify the stakes. Yet, the softer US CPI and the Fed’s steady hand offer a counterweight, a glimmer that maybe this won’t spiral into chaos. Gold’s 0.6 per cent uptick reflects safe-haven buying, but Brent crude’s 2 per cent jump on gasoline demand shows there’s still some economic pulse out there.

We’re in a precarious moment. Global risk sentiment is fragile because it’s caught between real economic risks and the faint hope of stabilisation. Trump’s tariffs could be a negotiating tactic—he’s hinted at flexibility before—but if they stick, the damage could be profound. Central banks like the BoC and ECB are on high alert, ready to adapt, but their tools might not be enough if trade fragmentation deepens. For investors, it’s a tightrope walk: chase the rallies in tech or hunker down with gold and bonds.

“For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game—watching how this chess match plays out, move by unpredictable move.” — Anndy Lian

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Source: https://e27.co/global-markets-in-flux-tariffs-stir-the-pot-cpi-cools-the-heat-20250313/