Global & Local Economic Reflections: Applying the PRR Framework for Sustainable Growth in 2025

By KainosEdge Consulting Limited

As we step deeper into 2025, businesses across Nigeria and the globe face a complex economic reality — one shaped by evolving local economic conditions, global trade tensions, and geopolitical recalibrations. The urgency to drive growth is high, but in a world where assumptions shift faster than strategies, growth must be intentional, data-driven, and adaptive.

At KainosEdge Consulting, we encourage businesses to adopt a structured framework for navigating this complexity — Operation PRR: Pause, Reflect, Recalibrate. This approach ensures that every business decision is grounded in economic intelligence, internal performance reviews, and adaptive strategies aligned with both local and global realities.

Let’s explore how PRR applies to Nigeria’s 2024 economic performance and the broader global economic environment shaping 2025.

Pause: Assessing Nigeria’s 2024 Economic Landscape

The 2024 GDP data for Nigeria offers critical insights into the state of the economy and the structural shifts businesses must account for in 2025.

Key Highlights from Nigeria’s 2024 GDP Report:

• Real GDP Growth Rate: 3.4%, up from 2.74% in 2023.

• GDP Size: ?79.2 trillion.
• Top Sector: Services, contributing 56.18% to GDP.
• Contractions: Agriculture (-0.54%) and Industry (-0.18%).
• Top Performing Sectors: Financial Services (30.89% growth), Telecommunications, and Crop Production.

Despite the modest improvement in GDP, inflation remains a critical challenge, with producer inflation rising to 13.2%, driven by import costs, fuel subsidy removal, and exchange rate harmonization.

What This Means for Businesses:

Pausing at this point helps business leaders evaluate:

• Are our growth assumptions still valid?
• How exposed are we to inflation-driven cost pressures?
• Are we positioned in the right sectors for sustainable growth?
• Is our operating model still viable in light of structural economic shifts?

Without pausing to review the data, businesses risk chasing outdated goals, misallocating capital, or losing competitiveness.

Reflect: Global Shifts Shaping 2025 Strategies

Pausing alone isn’t enough. Businesses must also reflect on global economic dynamics that increasingly influence Nigeria’s economic prospects.

Key Global Economic Trends: ?? US Tariffs and Trade Realignment

The United States has reintroduced and expanded tariffs on several key trading partners, significantly altering the global trade landscape and creating ripple effects for businesses around the world.

• China now faces a 15% tariff on critical exports to the US, including steel products, electric vehicles (EVs), and agricultural goods. This move escalates trade tensions and forces global businesses to reconsider supply chains, particularly in the manufacturing and automotive sectors.
• Canada has been hit with a 25% tariff on oil production and refined petroleum products entering the US market. This will not only affect cross-border energy trade but could also increase global energy prices, impacting both producers and downstream industries reliant on petroleum products.
• Mexico, a major supplier of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies to the US, will also see a 25% tariff imposed on these exports. This raises the cost of essential medical goods and could disrupt pharmaceutical supply chains that extend far beyond North America.
• Europe is facing a proposed 25% tariff on a broad range of goods, including industrial equipment, automobiles, and processed foods. If implemented, this will have wide-reaching effects across Europe’s industrial and food production sectors, driving up prices and slowing export demand.

These tariff measures, though aimed at reshaping US trade relationships, are already fueling uncertainty across global supply chains, prompting businesses in Nigeria and beyond to rethink sourcing strategies, cost structures, and long-term partnerships.

How Global Tariffs Affect Nigerian Businesses

?? Higher Input Costs: Nigerian manufacturers and energy firms sourcing equipment, raw materials, or technology from these regions face higher costs, contributing to inflationary pressures in Nigeria.

?? Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chains are reconfiguring, and Nigerian exporters could step in to fill some gaps — but only if they can meet global quality and compliance standards.

?? Trade Diversion Opportunities: With the US imposing higher costs on traditional suppliers, Nigeria could capture new export demand, especially in agriculture, energy, and pharmaceuticals.

?? Increased FX Volatility: Trade tensions tend to strengthen the dollar, putting more pressure on the Naira. Businesses must factor currency volatility into pricing and sourcing strategies.

?? Geopolitical Shifts — Ukraine-Russia Reconciliation One of the most unexpected developments influencing global markets is the tentative reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia. Beyond its humanitarian significance, this shift holds critical economic lessons.

Lessons for Business from Ukraine-Russia Reconciliation

1?? Acknowledge Reality: Both nations had to confront the real economic and social costs of prolonged conflict — a lesson for businesses unwilling to face their internal weaknesses or external vulnerabilities.

2?? Reflect on Priorities: Just as countries need to balance security, trade, and national interests, businesses need to reflect on their true priorities — is growth the only goal, or is long-term resilience more important?

3?? Rebuild Strategically: Rebuilding industries, infrastructure, and trust requires coordinated recalibration — a mindset businesses can adopt to rebuild broken supply chains, damaged customer trust, or misaligned internal processes.

Recalibrate: Turning Insights into Actionable Strategy

Once businesses have paused to assess both local economic data and reflected on global shifts, the final step is recalibration — updating strategies to align with the new reality.

Practical Recalibration Strategies for Nigerian Businesses

? Data-Driven Planning: Use GDP trends, sector performance data, and global trade shifts to forecast multiple scenarios and build flexible strategies.

? Capacity Building: Equip teams to think critically and adapt quickly, enabling them to thrive even when assumptions shift.

? Diversified Supply Chains: Reduce over-reliance on any single supplier or region. Explore regional alternatives across Africa and Asia.

? Sustainability & Resilience: Investors are increasingly favoring companies with strong ESG frameworks. Embedding sustainability into growth strategies enhances both resilience and investor attractiveness.

? Partner with Economic Advisors: Work with experts who can continuously monitor economic shifts and translate them into practical business guidance.

KainosEdge Consulting: Your Partner for Strategic Growth

At KainosEdge Consulting Limited , we don’t just track data — we transform it into actionable insights. Through our MacroResearch, Economic Advisory, and Management Capacity services, we empower businesses to:

?? Navigate global trade disruptions. ?? Adapt to Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape. ?? Build internal capabilities for long-term resilience. ?? Align strategy with global and local economic realities.

The question for 2025 isn’t just how fast you can grow — it’s whether you’re growing in the right direction.

Have you paused to understand where you stand? Have you reflected on both internal performance and external realities? Are you ready to recalibrate for sustainable success?

Let’s work together to find the answers.

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