Global Lithium Resource Analysis and 2024 Market Outlook for Lithium Supply and Demand

?1. Introduction: Lithium Resources on Earth

1.1 Natural Battery Metal

Lithium, a metallic element located in Group IA of the second period of the periodic table, has the symbol Li, an atomic number of 3, and an atomic mass of 6.941. It is a silver-white, soft metal with the lowest density among metals. Lithium exhibits the most negative electrode potential, making it the most reactive metal among known elements. These characteristics make lithium, when formulated into lithium-ion batteries, possess high open-circuit voltage, high specific energy, a broad working temperature range, discharge balance, and low self-discharge, rendering it a crucial and promising element in the field of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage. Hence, lithium is often referred to as the "battery metal."

Lithium is relatively abundant in nature, ranking 27th in abundance, with approximately 0.0065% in the Earth's crust, signifying a rich global lithium resource. According to USGS data, continuous exploration has significantly increased the globally identified lithium resources, with the 2022 total lithium resource adjusted to 98 million tons. The global lithium reserves also stand at an impressive 26 million tons, providing over 150 years of supply based on the current consumption levels. The years 2008 and 2018 marked two crucial milestones in lithium resource exploration. The rise of consumer electronics, particularly mobile phones, since 2008 led to a rapid increase in global lithium reserves. Subsequently, after 2018, the high-speed development of electric vehicles and the surge in demand for lithium in power batteries ignited a renewed interest in lithium exploration, a fervor that continues unabated for four years.

1.2 Uneven Distribution of Lithium Resources

Global lithium resources are concentrated, with 53% distributed in the lithium triangle of South America (Bolivia, Chile, Argentina), particularly in salt flats. Following closely are Australia, China, and the United States. In terms of reserves, in 2022, of the 26 million tons, Chile holds 9.3 million tons, accounting for 35.8%, Argentina has 2.7 million tons, making up 10.4%, Australia boasts 6.2 million tons, representing 23.8%, while China holds 2 million tons, accounting for 7.7%. Although China's lithium resources are abundant, they are dispersed, and the quality is relatively low.

As the most reactive metal, lithium primarily exists in nature in the form of compounds. In terms of resource forms, global lithium resources mainly include hard rock minerals, brine, clay minerals, etc. Hard rock minerals encompass lithium pyroxene, lithium mica, spodumene, and lepidolite. Brine includes salt lake brine, oilfield brine, and geothermal brine. Among these, salt lake brine accounts for more than half of global lithium resources.

The chemical composition of lithium pyroxene is LiAl[Si2O6], with a theoretical Li2O content as high as 8.03%. The actual Li2O content in lithium pyroxene concentrates ranges from 6.3% to 7.5%, with typical concentrations falling within the range of 2.91% to 7.66%. Lithium pyroxene is mainly found in countries such as Australia, Canada, the United States, and Zimbabwe. Due to its stable and simple chemical composition, high lithium content, low impurities other than silicon and aluminum, and mature technology for lithium extraction, lithium pyroxene is a major source of current lithium resource supply.

Brine types include sulfate-type, chloride-type, carbonate-type, etc. Different salt lake brines have various ion types, significant differences, and varying lithium contents. However, overall reserves are concentrated in Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, the United States, and the Qinghai-Tibet region of China.

In addition, lithium mica is currently the third-largest source of lithium supply and is an essential mineral for lithium extraction. Its chemical composition is K{Li2-xAl1+xAl2xSi4-2xO102} (x=0-0.5). It is a basic aluminum silicate of potassium and lithium. Lithium mica is generally found only in granite pegmatites, with an ore grade of approximately 0.3%-1.2% and concentrate grades ranging from 2.2% to 3.5%.

Lithium clay is also an important type of lithium ore, also known as sedimentary lithium ore, characterized by wide distribution and large reserves. It is mainly distributed in countries such as the United States, Mexico, Serbia, etc. In recent years, a large amount of lithium clay resources has been discovered in the southwestern region of China. These lithium clay deposits can be classified into volcanic clay lithium ore, carbonate clay lithium ore, and Jadar lithium boron ore based on different origins. With the growing demand for lithium resources, lithium clay holds significant development prospects.

2. Key Observations

In 2024, the lithium mining sector stands at a critical juncture, navigating through shifts in demand, project completions, and the emergence of new industry dynamics. This report provides a concise analysis of the current stage in the lithium mining cycle, anticipating a transformative year with global implications.

n? Cycle Stage and Project Completion:

The year 2024 marks a significant milestone in the long-term economic cycle, as it coincides with the end of a period of short-term fluctuations and challenges. One of the main drivers of this transition is the surge in demand for lithium resources since 2021, which has stimulated the initiation of many projects across different sectors and regions. Most of these projects are expected to be completed by 2024, creating new opportunities and benefits for the lithium industry and its stakeholders.

n? Transition to Consolidation and Reserve Resource Management:

In the future, projects will place greater emphasis on quality and sustainability rather than simply pursuing scale and speed. This shift may be a result of various factors, including changes in market demand, technological advancements, and adjustments in the policy environment.

However, this perspective must also consider the uncertainty in the global economic and political environment, along with the existence of various risks and challenges. For instance, global trade tensions, geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, pandemics, and other factors can potentially impact the implementation of projects and the stability of supply chains. Therefore, project managers need to possess heightened risk awareness and crisis response capabilities to navigate uncertainty and challenges.

Future projects will prioritize quality and sustainability while requiring strategies to address various risks and challenges. This necessitates that project managers possess elevated professional competence and comprehensive capabilities to effectively address future changes and challenges.

Global Trend Changes in 2024:

l? Analysis of Global Lithium Resource Trends:

Lithium, a pivotal element for batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies, is set to experience exponential demand growth as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy. The uneven distribution of lithium across the globe, influenced by geopolitical, environmental, and economic factors, necessitates continuous monitoring of trends to identify opportunities and challenges for different regions and countries.

l? Australia's Stable Dominance with Decreasing Share:

Australia, the largest lithium producer in 2020 with a 40% global share, faces rising competition from regions like South America and Africa. Rich in diverse lithium deposits, mainly hard rock spodumene ores, Australia's well-established mining industry boasts advanced technology and regulatory frameworks. Despite a projected decrease to 35% in 2024, Australia remains a dominant player in the market.

l? South America's Rising Influence:

South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, witnesses amplified influence in lithium resource implementation. Holding 58% of the world's lithium reserves, mainly in brine deposits, these countries face challenges like water scarcity and pollution. With ambitious plans for production and downstream processing, Brazil and Argentina aim to increase their global capacity share from 15% in 2020 to 20% by 2024, emerging as influential players.

l? Africa's Potential Amid Policy Changes:

Africa, led by Zimbabwe, garners attention due to potential mining policy changes. Despite a modest 2% share in global lithium production in 2020, Africa holds significant potential with vast high-grade lithium deposits. Zimbabwe, with a reserve of 23 million tonnes, undergoes policy reforms to attract foreign capital and technology. Successfully implemented, these changes could position Zimbabwe as a major lithium supplier.

l? China's Strategic Development in Tibet Salt Lake:

China, the largest lithium consumer globally (60% demand in 2020), is a major producer facing domestic supply challenges. To enhance energy security, China accelerates construction in Tibet Salt Lake, one of the largest brine deposits globally. With an estimated reserve of 15 million tonnes, this project, set to start production by 2023 and reach full capacity by 2025, aims to add 100,000 tonnes per year, significantly boosting China's self-sufficiency rate and global market position.

l? North America's Reshaping Role:

North America, contributing 8% to global lithium production in 2020, concentrates lithium resources in Canada and the United States, encompassing both hard rock and brine deposits. Despite high production costs and environmental regulations, Canada and the United States aim to increase production and diversify sources by exploring new deposits. Leading developments in the lithium value chain, including battery manufacturing, electric vehicle production, and recycling, Canada and the United States are poised to increase their global capacity share to 10% by 2024, actively shaping the global lithium industry chain path.

Notices:

1)??????? World Resources: Owing to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased substantially worldwide and total about 98 million tons. Identified lithium resources in the United States—from continental brines, claystone, geothermal brines, hectorite, oilfield brines, and pegmatites—are 12 million tons. Identified lithium resources in other countries have been revised to 86 million tons. Identified lithium resources are distributed as follows: Bolivia, 21 million tons; Argentina, 20 million tons; Chile, 11 million tons; Australia, 7.9 million tons; China, 6.8 million tons; Germany, 3.2 million tons; Congo (Kinshasa), 3 million tons; Canada, 2.9 million tons; Mexico, 1.7 million tons; Czechia, 1.3 million tons; Serbia, 1.2 million tons; Russia, 1 million tons; Peru, 880,000 tons; Mali, 840,000 tons; Brazil, 730,000 tons; Zimbabwe, 690,000 tons; Spain, 320,000 tons; Portugal, 270,000 tons; Namibia; 230,000 tons; Ghana, 180,000 tons; Finland, 68,000 tons; Austria, 60,000 tons; and Kazakhstan, 50,000 tons.

2)??????? Substitutes: Substitution for lithium compounds is possible in batteries, ceramics, greases, and manufactured glass. Examples are calcium, magnesium, mercury, and zinc as anode material in primary batteries; calcium and aluminum soaps as substitutes for stearates in greases; and sodic and potassic fluxes in ceramics and glass manufacture.

n? Regional Progress in Resource Development:

l? Global regions exhibit diverse progress in lithium resource development.

l? Some regions are yet to make substantial moves, while others have entered active construction and development phases.

l? Anticipation surrounds how the industry chain landscape will evolve in response to these regional developments.

Lithium resources are unevenly distributed around the world, and so is their development. Some regions have lagged in tapping into their lithium reserves, while others have moved forward with building and developing lithium projects. These regional differences have an impact on the industry chain, as they may create opportunities or challenges for different players depending on their lithium availability.

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Conclusion:

As 2024 unfolds, the lithium mining sector is during a transformative period. The completion of key projects, coupled with changing global dynamics, positions the industry for a renewed landscape. Mining professionals are encouraged to embark on a comprehensive exploration of lithium resource projects worldwide, spanning Australia, South America, Africa, China, North America, and Europe, to gain insights into the evolving trends shaping the future of lithium mining.