Global Light Vehicle Sales Outlook: February 2024

February light vehicle sales in the United States were the best for that month since 2020. Nineteen consecutive months of year-over-year improvements bode well for another good sales year. Automakers reporting monthly, such as Toyota and Ford, improved by 10% while the rest, like Stellantis and GM, gained about 7.6%. Continued growth has pulled the AFS forecast up to 15.9 million units for 2024 with room to rise beyond that, depending on the moves from the Federal Reserve later this year and other economic factors.

Canada finished last month modestly above expectations to a record for February. Forecasted numbers of about 126,000 units were beat by around 3,000, but this is not a big enough change to expect huge growth for the year. The forecast for 2024 remains at just shy of 1.9 million.

February sales in Mexico was slower than anticipated. While February beat January’s numbers and improved on last year’s volume by about 12%, the month was expected to perform even better following January’s gain of nearly 19%. Volkswagen, Toyota, Kia, Mazda, and MG reported numbers similar to January’s volume. With market leaders Nissan and General Motors slipping from January levels, the forecast for 2024 was revised downward to 1.45 million, a 6.6% improvement over 2023.

After losing its manufacturing industry, Australia became a targeted export market for many automakers. With no indigenous manufacturers like Holden, Ford, and Toyota, Australia opened up to regional ute makers and Chinese brands. While the top two best-selling models down under continues to be Ford and Toyota trucks, the hidden story is the rise of Tesla, taking two spots in the top ten, and the success of MG. Last year, sales in Australia topped 1.2 million units for the first time and 2024 is expected to crest 1.3 million for another record.

Sales in Japan have started out 2024 extremely slowly. After January reported totals 12.4% lower than the year prior, February slowed down even more, falling behind last February’s good performance by 19.2%. Coming out of the gate with two consecutive double-digit losses actually continues a trend where market growth was cooling down starting back in September. Government numbers agree as GDP for the July-September quarter fell 2.9% and the October-December quarter fell another 0.4%; traditionally, this would mark a recession. An aging population and a smaller workforce has been affecting Japan’s economy for decades. Expectations for 2024 remain low with hopes of slight GDP growth around 0.5% compared to 1.9% last year. This has the country on track to sell 4.4 million units in 2024, down from last year’s nearly 4.8 million-unit total.

The expectations of 7% growth in the EU continues to come into view as each member nation reports monthly year-over-year improvements in light vehicle sales. Italy opened 2024 double-digit growth in January and February leading into a 1.7 million unit year. Spain’s 2024 is up but not quite as strong as Italy’s, however the year is on target to top 1 million units for the first time since 2019.

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