Global Investment Outlook - June 2020
A Clash of Empires and a New Age for Global Markets
A recent lengthy blog entry from Ray Dalio contains a remarkable meta-analysis of the rise and fall of empires over the last several centuries. This could have significant implications for today's long-term investors. DWS asset management also takes a long-term view, looking at the ways in which the COVID-19 epidemic has affected long-term return forecasts. Concurrently, other asset managers focus upon the outlook for specific asset classes, such as the global real estate market.
At the beginning of each month, Savvy Investor aims to cut to the chase, providing our members with an up-to-date list of the highest quality investment outlook content produced in the past several weeks.
Global Macro Shifts: The post-pandemic world (Franklin Templeton, May 2020)
Franklin Templeton's Global Macro Shifts discusses the reasons why a gradual recovery may be the most likely outcome, as well as post-recovery risks and related investment implications.
Big Cycles Over the Last 500 Years (Ray Dalio, May 2020)
Ray Dalio goes over the rise and fall of several empires, including the British, Dutch, and American empires as well as their reserve currencies.
Global Investment Views (Amundi, Jun 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the United States)
In this monthly outlook document, Amundi AM examines the market's detachment from reality over the past few weeks, in addition to global equity valuations and their asset class views.
Market Risk Insights: Portfolio triage (Federated Hermes, 2020)
Federated Hermes provides their analysis of correlation, volatility, liquidity, stretch, event, and ESG risk factors to aid investors in navigating the coronavirus-related sell-off.
Pandemic Progression and Prospects: Facts, figures and possibilities (Invesco, May 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies)
Invesco examines data on the COVID-19 epidemic, including the extent of 'curve flattening,' the possibility of a second wave, and other related issues.
Long View: The impact of COVID-19 on long-term return forecasts (DWS Group, May 2020)
This 21-page paper from DWS Research Institute focuses on the ways that the COVID-19 epidemic has affected prior forecasts of long-term returns.
Thematic Views (Amundi, Jun 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is not accessible in the United States)
This excerpt from Amundi's Cross Asset Investment Views for June 2020 discusses yield curve control by central banks, as well as the state of the US consumer.
U.S. Economic Outlook: Macroeconomic headwinds vs tailwinds (Manulife blog, May 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies)
Manulife Investment Management looks at the balance between headwinds and tailwinds currently affecting the U.S. economy and the likelihood of renewed trade tensions or a second wave epidemic causing further turmoil.
At the Peak of the Curve - Asset Allocation Q2 2020 (Neuberger Berman)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies)
Neuberger Berman updates its prior 2Q 2020 outlook, given all that has taken place over the last 6-8 weeks, revisiting the implications for asset classes.
China’s 2020 National People’s Congress: Measured, muted, and modest (PineBridge Investments blog, May 2020)
PineBridge reviews China’s recent National People's Congress (NPC) meeting. This year the meeting was delayed two months due to the coronavirus, and there were few surprises.
Equity’s Response to COVID-19: Proceed with caution (Janus Henderson blog, May 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in the United States and Canada)
Recent equity rallies may be ignoring significant headwinds, such as a decline in earnings growth.
Real Estate Outlook: Global overview (UBS AM, May 2020)
COVID-19's effects on real estate markets across the globe include a reduction in occupier demand, but loose monetary policy should support property values. UBS Asset Management explains further in this 28-page outlook.
Global Outlook: Real estate in a crisis (PGIM Real Estate, May 2020)
PGIM Real Estate's Global Real Estate Outlook contains an overview of real estate concerns during a crisis, as well as regional perspectives for the Americas, Europe, and APAC markets.
COVID-19: Is there still a premium for illiquidity? (Aviva blog, May 2020)
(For compliance reasons, this paper is only accessible in certain geographies)
Will the COVID-19 pandemic spell the end of investors' appetite for illiquidity? Aviva looks to previous crises for answers.
Covid Stimulus Payments: How checks in the U.S. were spent (NBER, 2020)
This report aims to show how Americans are spending their economic stimulus payments. Have they helped, and are these policy measures a good idea going forward?
Global Economic Effects of COVID-19 (Congressional Research Service, 2020)
The U.S. Congressional Research Service provides an update of the global economic costs of the COVID-19 outbreak to date and the steps that have been taken by international institutions to address it.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew Perrins is a former Actuary and Asset Allocator. After qualifying as an Actuary, he worked for 15 years in investment management, serving as Director of Asset Allocation for Abbey Life and for Chase Manhattan, before setting out on a more entrepreneurial path.
To contact him, email [email protected]