[Global Insights] How does the Ex-Google President prepare for the Imminent Era of AI?| A conversation with Kai-Fu Lee

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Intro: This interview is compiled from Kai-Fu Lee's interview with Sean Kim Youtube channel, published publicly on 11/26/2024.

Original content reference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6vmwfYCrzM

Kai-Fu Lee: the Chairman and CEO of Sinovation Ventures and President of Sinovation Venture's Artificial Intelligence Institute.

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Key takeaway:

• The stages of AI development and the future: AI development has gone through three stages: early exploration, deep learning breakthroughs, and today's rapid development. The emergence of deep learning has greatly boosted AI capabilities, but there is still a considerable distance to a strong AI that truly possesses creativity, self-awareness, and emotions, at least for the next 20 years. While AI may mimic human emotion and creativity in some ways, it is still essentially a data-based simulation.
• Impact of AI on Employment : AI will replace a large number of repetitive jobs, leading to unemployment and wealth inequality. Society will need to address this challenge through retraining programs, universal basic income, tax adjustments, and other measures. New types of jobs will emerge in the future, but their exact form is difficult to predict and will take time to see. Jobs will no longer be for life and people will need to adapt to the changing employment landscape.
• Impact of AI on Society : AI brings huge wealth not only in terms of money, but also in terms of liberating people from repetitive labor and giving them more time for creative work and services. The structure of society may evolve into a large middle class and a small group of super-rich, requiring the distribution of wealth to be regulated through taxation and other means.
• Advice to the younger generation: The younger generation is advised to develop soft skills such as creativity, critical thinking, communication skills, empathy, etc., while following their inner passions to find their place in the age of AI. The education system also needs to be reformed to accommodate the skills needed in the AI era.
• Thoughts on longevity research: Favors the combination of life sciences and AI in the field of longevity research, and believes that data-driven self-management approaches can be helpful in extending lifespan.

(This is an excerpt of the full length interview. To watch the full interview please click here：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6vmwfYCrzM）

Host: Kai-Fu Lee, thank you very much for coming on our program today. I'd like to start by introducing you. Of course, we've already done this beforehand, but just to give you an idea of some of the important things that you've done before, you're now at Sinovation Ventures, you developed a speaker-agnostic continuous speech recognition system for your doctoral thesis, you were the founder and managing director of Microsoft Research Asia, and then you were the president of Google China before you started IW. Tell us about your work at Sinovation Ventures and what you think about it.

Kai-Fu Lee: Sure. We invest in cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence, healthcare, life sciences, semiconductors, and so on. This leverages my own background in technology. We're early stage investors in startups and we're with them all the way to IPO, so we're very similar to Silicon Valley companies like Andreessen Horowitz, Greylock or Benchmark.?

Host: We want to dive into artificial intelligence. That's the theme of this book-AI 2041 and of your previous book-AI superpowers.

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Opportunities vs. Challenges

Host: You mentioned in the book that AI may bring great wealth, but it may also lead to the replacement of some jobs. This is a topic that everyone is discussing, how do you see the opportunities and challenges brought by AI?

Kai-Fu Lee: Artificial Intelligence is an optimization technology that can perform tasks more efficiently than humans through a large amount of data. It can get the job done by learning data and observing human behavior, so many repetitive white-collar and blue-collar jobs will be replaced by AI. This will lead to job loss as well as increased wealth inequality.

Host: Will this concentrate wealth in the hands of a few people or companies that can utilize AI?

Kai-Fu Lee: Yes, AI will be used by top companies to create enormous wealth, but it will also displace ordinary people who do repetitive work. Society will need mechanisms to bridge this wealth gap, such as cushions for the unemployed through taxes and a universal basic income. Vocational retraining is also needed to help people find new jobs. The importance of retraining lies not only in income, but also in the impact of work on the meaning of people's lives. Work is an important part of the meaning of people's lives. When people lose their jobs, it can be frustrating and even lead to problems such as depression or substance abuse. At the same time, the education system needs to be reformed to develop skills in children that AI cannot replace, such as creativity, teamwork, empathy, and human connection.

Host: Do you think AI will also create new jobs?

Kai-Fu Lee: Although we don't fully know what new jobs will be created yet, I believe that AI will lead to new employment opportunities. The key is how we adjust our social structure and education system to prepare for the future. But we know these new jobs won't be repetitive. So for humans, once we get past the stages of job replacement, wealth inequality adjustment, and necessary policy development, we can expect two important benefits: first, AI will create a lot of wealth for the world and society because we will no longer need to rely on repetitive human labor to make products; and second, humans will be liberated from drudgery to do the things that they really like or are good at things. Although this may be a difficult transition period, once it is over, we will usher in a better environment and world. When you say 'wealth', you don't just mean money, but also time, creativity and wider opportunities. Because it's not just about financial gains. I'm talking about the full range of benefits of AI, such as more time for people to explore their creativity and enjoy life, as well as access to higher quality services.

Host: So in terms of new jobs, do you envision any new careers that might emerge in the future?

Kai-Fu Lee: That's part of the discussion in AI 2041. An obvious example is that in a world full of robots, we need robot repairers and AI programmers. On the other hand, people may spend more money on services as robot-produced goods become cheaper. The number of jobs and innovative services in the service sector will increase dramatically. For example, someone might spend more money on customized vacations for the family, including high-end dining, private guides, massages, and other services. Then for those who need help, for example, caring for the elderly, helping foster families, or parents choosing to homeschool their children, these are all career fields that are likely to increase. Parents in the AI economy may see educating their children as a more meaningful investment of time.

Like the internet revolution, we may not be able to fully predict the new forms of careers that will come in the future, but it's safe to assume that they will emerge gradually. Like no one could have predicted 20 years ago that a platform like Uber would lead to so many jobs and change lifestyles, it's hard for us to predict now what new jobs artificial intelligence will bring. But history tells us that every technological revolution ends up creating more jobs than it eliminates, and I believe AI is no exception. However, we may have to wait 15 to 20 years before we see a full-blown explosion of new jobs, as we did with the Internet revolution.

Host: However, AI is always a double-edged sword. Older generations may not be able to adapt, for example, cab drivers were replaced by Uber, and now Uber drivers may be replaced in the next 5 to 10 years. Will this create a cycle where AI creates new wealth, but then replaces those new jobs?

Kai-Fu Lee: Yes that's why I mention a new form of company in my book - job redistribution companies. These companies help people who have been replaced by AI find new jobs that suit them on an individual basis and provide retraining services. In the stories in the book, some of the characters go through two to three job reassignments in 20 years. This phenomenon could become the norm. Society needs a buffer mechanism so that people no longer see work as a lifelong career but a chance to learn new skills. If society, government and business can provide support, coupled with the guarantee of social welfare, people will be more willing to retrain rather than panic about losing their jobs.

?Host: And how will this affect the social structure? Will there be a large middle class, plus a small number of super-rich people, and eventually no so-called lower class?

Kai-Fu Lee: That's just one possibility, but I think it's a very likely outcome. People will no longer fear losing their jobs because there will be retraining mechanisms to help them adapt to technological changes, as well as social welfare coverage. In addition, some people may choose to take up socially valuable jobs such as medical care, services for the elderly, or home schooling for their children. There is a need for greater social recognition of these non-economic output-oriented jobs to ensure that they can make a decent living. Society needs to adjust its values to respect and support these socially beneficial jobs. At the same time, some form of tax equalization, such as a “tax on the rich”, may need to be considered for the super-rich.

Host: But the rich might object to that.

?LKF: Of course, the rich will certainly protest. But perhaps we can find a better way to achieve balance. But if there is no better alternative, the “tax on the rich” may become the last option that has to be accepted. After all, what's the point of one person having a trillion dollars? The money cannot be used up, and from the perspective of society as a whole, it does not help. So taxing the super-rich and big business seems like an approach we can understand and implement. People talk about Universal Basic Income (UBI), but the problem is that UBI needs to be funded. Without taxes on the super-rich, I don't see how UBI can be realized. Historically, taxation is a redistributive mechanism with which we are very familiar. While there may be smarter ways to do it, taxes seem to be an unavoidable means.

Host: I think it might be a better way to balance things out if those top 0.1% could effectively capitalize on social contributions. For example, someone like Jeff Bezos, who is one of the richest people in the world, but who is able to use his capital for programs like Blue Origin, which advances society. For people like him who have accumulated wealth through their own efforts and abilities, should they be allowed to continue to own and use that capital to advance society more efficiently?

Kai-Fu Lee: Indeed, examples like Bezos or Bill Gates show that when that wealth is used to advance scientific research or social progress, it can be very meaningful. Because it's money that they've earned through hard work, they care more about how it's spent and are more efficient than the government might be. However, if this is allowed, there could be “loopholes” for tax avoidance, which would complicate the system, and there would need to be a balance between promoting social contribution and preventing tax avoidance.

Host: On the subject of job replacement, I think it's inevitable that artificial intelligence will continue to accelerate. For our children, they will grow up in a world built around the need for new skills. But for my generation, it's really disconcerting to be faced with the expectation that 40-50% of jobs will be replaced by AI within 15 years. Can you elaborate on the “four-quadrant” model you mention in your book, and which jobs are most likely to be replaced?

?Kai-Fu Lee: Sure. In both of my books, I use a two-dimensional model to delineate the four quadrants. The two dimensions are:

· Horizontal axis: the level of creativity. The higher the level of creativity, the more humans need to be involved; and the lower the level of creativity, the more likely it is to be replaced by AI.

· Vertical Axis: Trust, empathy and human connection. The higher the job requires more human emotional connection; the lower it is, the more it tends to be done in isolation.

Based on these two dimensions, we have the following four quadrants:

(1)Low creativity, low empathy (bottom left): these jobs will be almost entirely replaced by AI. This includes a large number of repetitive tasks on a daily basis, such as data entry, simple customer service support, etc.

(2)Low creativity, high empathy (top left): this is the area where service jobs are proliferating, such as medical care, home care, and elder care. Professions like teachers and doctors will also become more focused on human interaction, with AI providing more of a supporting role, such as diagnostic or teaching tools.

(1)High creativity, low empathy (bottom right): this section is for jobs that require a high degree of creativity, like scientists, artists, and designers. While AI can aid in creativity, complete replacement remains difficult.

(2)High creativity, high empathy (top right): this is the most difficult job category to replace, usually senior managers, counselors, and complex team coordinators.?

Most of the repetitive jobs will be replaced, and more people are likely to go into the service sector. For those low-skilled workers who are replaced, it is true that it is difficult to transition a worker in a repetitive job directly into a scientist or CEO. but they may be more likely to move into service industries, such as jobs that provide more interpersonal connections and emotional support. That's a relatively more viable path.

Host: Very good point.

Kai-Fu Lee: Jobs like scientists and researchers that don't require a lot of empathy or interpersonal connection will continue to be taken on by humans, but will probably use AI tools more to form symbiotic relationships. And jobs that require high levels of empathy and creativity, such as CEOs or national leaders, will require a combination of creativity and empathy, as well as the use of AI tools to aid in the work.

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Adaptation & Skillsets

Host: So for students and their parents who are entering high school or college, what skills should be taught to their children for the future? Should the focus be more on soft skills, such as creative arts, philosophy or psychology?

Kai-Fu Lee: It’s on the right track, but I think it's more important to design entirely new curricula and learning processes to develop the skills that are really needed. For example, how do you make someone more creative? How to develop critical thinking and curiosity? How can we teach less about “what the answer is” and more about encouraging students to think about “why” and “why not” in the classroom? Such a shift requires a redesign of the education system. Similarly, soft skills, such as empathy, communication, teamwork, and the ability to earn the trust of others, which have always accounted for more than 50 percent of success in the workplace, are not well taught in traditional classrooms. So the question of how to adapt the educational process is a critical one. If public schools can't do that, parents may need to provide that education additionally.

Host: So is a child's interest also important?

Kai-Fu Lee: It's also very important for children to follow their interests and passions. In an environment where AI is getting stronger and stronger, if you don't love what you're doing, it's hard to be the best in the field. In AI 2041, we also discuss how AI tools can enhance education. For example, the story “Two Sparrows” describes how an AI companion can work with each child to make learning fun, while observing their daily behavior to understand their interests and motivations so that they can be motivated to learn in a personalized way. Of course, parents also need to do things that only humans can do to help their children grow in these challenging but opportunity-rich times.

Host: Do you think there will be a situation where humans fall in love with robots in the future?

Kai-Fu Lee: It's likely that there will be some humans falling in love with robots, which could be software-based chatbots that initially make connections through conversations. As AI advances in simulating emotions and understanding, robots that can demonstrate these capabilities may emerge in the next 20 years. But I would caution that if you think you might be in love with a bot, remember that it doesn't really love you. It's just analyzing and giving words or behaviors that will grab your attention and make you feel loved. It's not really affectionate. I hope this does not become a mainstream phenomenon. While it is true that there will be lonely people who feel that robots understand them, we should love humans, not robots. It's in line with human culture, intuition and preference.

?Host: This is a good topic. After all, loneliness is now an “epidemic”. If robots can alleviate loneliness, perhaps this will fulfill a need for some people. Even if the robot itself doesn't have real feelings, it might still bring some kind of fulfillment. Do you think this could become a separate industry, such as robot companions?

Kai-Fu Lee: It's technically possible, but we don't explore the plot of humans falling in love with robots in the book. I don't think this phenomenon should be encouraged. However, there are indeed roles for AI companions, such as AI teachers who provide companionship for children. AI does have potential in mental health, for example as an alternative to psychological assistance. If people do not have timely access to a human psychologist, AI may be a reasonable alternative. Current research suggests that in certain situations, such as counseling and crisis hotlines, AI outperforms situations where there is no help available. These applications can be a supplement, not a replacement.

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