Global Economic Overview - 11/09/2023

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

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?Global Equities

• Historic US Dollar Run Sounds ‘Overbought’ Alarm
• Europe Stocks Close Slightly Higher, Snap Longest Losing Streak Since 2018

Global Fixed Income

• El Salvador Bonds Extend Rally on Debt Maturity Extension, Google Deal
• Dollar Recovers Early Losses as Bond Yields Rise

Currencies

• Dollar Advances on Solid US Data; China’s Yuan Sinks to 16-Year Low
• What’s Driving US Dollar Strength Against Euro, Ruble, and Yuan?

Energy

• Crude Oil Markets Continue to Look Bullish
• US Says It Disrupts Illicit Oil Shipment by Iran’s IRGC, Seizes Contraband Crude

Metals

• Gold Markets Pulled Back for This Week
• Silver Plunges for the Week

Global Politics/News

• Market Leadership Flagging Ahead of August Inflation Reports Next Week
• Ukraine Rips Elon Musk for Disrupting Sneak Attack on Russian Fleet With Starlink Cutoff?

Relevant Government Reports?

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World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary?

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Financial

Closing Commentary

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Thought of the Day: If things came easy, then everybody would be great at what they did, let's face it. – Mike Ditka

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Equities: The Stocks bounced today to end the week. The net effect was a lower trade with the market below the moving averages. The projections looking forward show some anticipated slowing. The retail sector predicts a 13% decline in container imports. This is significant and anticipates a holiday slowdown. The Fed is abrading subtly talking about logier term inflation. The Cost of Capital. The wage increases. It seems difficult to expect a really strong market. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The S&P and the Dow are below the 14, 21-day moving average on the daily. The 140 is support at present.

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Fixed Income: The Bonds are up today. The Dallas Fed chair Logan indicated she would be in favor of a pause. As suggested, it seems likely that move may step up under the wait and see guise. The reality given the massive spending. The reality that nobody wants to buy our bonds. The U.S. will have a difficult time servicing this debt load. The interest alone can't be paid without a addition the deficit. This is not good. A pause may invite a near term rally. The macro remains down. However, the market has fallen a long way. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - the Bonds are at the 14, 21-day moving average.

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Energy: The Crude is higher today. The last month has been very friendly prices. The reason for macro support is solidly in place. The Saudis and the Russians are controlling the supply. The demand is solid even through Asia. The production is at a deficit to demand. The market may not run through $90. However, the Crude should remain well supported. When are we refilling the Strategic Reserve. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The market is well above the 14, 21, 140-day moving average in a solid up trend.

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