Global Economic Overview- 10/08/2023

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

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Global Equities

• Stocks Sink for Second Day, Nasdaq Leads Way Down
• European Markets Close Higher as Italy Waters Down Bank Windfall Tax

Global Fixed Income

• USD/JPY Continues to Climb Amid Falling US Bond Yields, Awaiting US CPI
• Treasury 10-Year Yield Breaks Below 4% After Sale

Currencies

• US Dollar Dips as China Deflation Pulls Investors Into Risk Assets
• Long Euro Positions Could Capitulate in Septemeber

Energy

• Crude Oil Price Forecast – Crude Oil Markets Continue to Show Upward Momentum
• Oil Ticks Higher On Fuel Inventory Draws

Metals

• Gold Sets to Test Three-Month Low Ahead of US CPI
• Silver Gives Up Early Gains

Global Politics/News

• Wall Street Slips Ahead of Inflation Report
• Explosion at Military Supply Plant Near Moscow Injures at Least 45; UN Condemns Strikes on Pokrovsk?

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary?

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Thought of the Day:?All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. –?Arthur Schopenhauer?

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Equities:?The Equities are mixed today. The recent trade has been weaker but still resilient from a macro sense. The early weakness today was from Tech stocks declining on weaker earnings. The market in general has managed to outperform based on a small percentage of stocks carrying the ball with high valuations. The suggestion here has been a more Bearish posture, however that has been wrong. Looking forward the global concerns. The deflationary issues in China coupled with issues here could push the market lower. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - (DAILY TIME FRAME)- The S&P and the Dow are below the 14, 21-day moving average both making new 14-day lows this week.

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Energy:?The Crude is higher again today above $84 per barrel. The market has some friendly news and some potentially Bearish news. The market has had a significant move up and could pause and be supported. The Chinese deflationary numbers were?concerning from a macro sense. However, overall demand from Asia remains intact. The U.S. Crude stocks rising was also a bit Bearish. However, as suggested the macro-U.S. stance on energy is Bullish and will remain so until a change takes place. The decline in Rigs. The lack of new permits, etc. TECNICAL OUTLOOK -(DAILY TIME FRAME) - The Crude is well above the 14, 21, 140-day moving average. (WEEKLY TIME FRAME) - The Crude is above the 14, 21, 140 on the weekly time frame.

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