Global Economic Daily - 27/03/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY Global Equities

• Stocks Fade Into the Close as Nasdaq Lags
• European Stocks Close Slightly Higher; Tui Shares Up 5%, Maersk Falls 2.6%

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips Lower as Investors Weigh Economic Data
• Indian Bonds Are Set to be Added to Global Indexes. Here’s Why it Could be a Gamechanger

Currencies

• Dollar Up: Yen Edges Lower After Japanese Finance Minister Comments
• EUR/USD Edges Lower After Strong US Data

Energy

• Iraq and Iran Will Expedite Development of Sanctions-Busting Shared Oil Fields
• Crude Oil Continues to Build Pressure

Metals

• Gold Bullish Reversal Signals Potential Upside Breakout
• Silver Continues to Consolidate Above Support

Global Politics/News

• Fed Posts Record Loss of $114.3B in 2023 as Aggressive Rate Hikes Upend Finances
• Lukashenko Contradicts Putin, Says Moscow Terrorists Were Fleeing to Belarus, Not Ukraine

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new. – Albert Einstein

Equities: Stocks fell again on Tuesday. The?S&P 500?fell for a third consecutive session on Tuesday. The broader market index slid 14.61 points to close at 5,203.58, while the?Nasdaq 100?lost 66.52 points, finishing at 18,210.54. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?inched down by 31.31 points to settle at 39,282.33. The day’s action marked a cooling from last week, when all three indexes closed at a record Thursday and the Dow approached the 40,000 leve. Economic data out Tuesday was mixed, showing stronger-than-expected orders for durable goods, but waning consumer confidence. Investors are largely lying in wait before the release of the latest personal consumption expenditure and labor market openings readings. The major averages are on pace for their fifth straight winning month. The broad market index is up more than 2% in March. The Nasdaq Composite is toting a 1.4% advance for the period, while the Dow is up 0.7%. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Crude Oil: Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as investors took a more mixed view toward the loss of Russian refinery capacity after recent Ukrainian attacks. Oil prices edged lower after Russia's government?ordered?companies to cut output in the second quarter to meet a 9 million barrels per day target to comply with pledges to the OPEC consumer group. Russia, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, is also contending with a spate of recent attacks on its oil refineries by Ukraine and has?mounted its own attacks?on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russian oil refining capacity shut down by the attacks has reached 14% of the country's total capacity. The crucial February reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Friday, when markets are closed for the Good Friday holiday. OPEC is?unlikely?to make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial gathering in June, ahead of next week's gathering of ministers that is not expected to make any policy recommendations. Rising geopolitical premiums as the?Israel-Gaza conflict?continues were also set to sustain price levels. Iran-backed Houthi militants on Tuesday said they had mounted?six attacks?on ships in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea over the past 72 hours. U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories rose last week, while gasoline stockpiles fell, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended March 22, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 531,000 barrels. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold prices are near steady in midday U.S. trading Tuesday and lost solid overnight gains. Prices overnight and in early U.S. trading were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index, slightly firmer crude oil prices and a downtick in U.S. Treasury yields. However, as the U.S. day session progressed the USDX rebounded, prompting some profit-taking pressure in gold from the shorter-term futures traders. Technically, April gold futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract and record high of $2,225.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,149.20. May silver futures prices hit a two-week low today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $25.975. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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