Global Economic Daily - 22/03/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Stocks Jump to New Highs as Fed Buzz Lifts Markets
• European Shares Hit New Peaks as Rate-Cut Hopes Gain Steam

Global Fixed Income

• 2-Year Treasury Yield Ticks Higher as Investors Assess Path Ahead for Rate Cuts
• Treasury Yields Retreat Further Post-Fed but Nears Key technical Juncture

Currencies

• Rate Cut Bets Lent Wings to the Dollar
• EUR/USD Retreats After Release of US Data, Eurozone PMIs

Energy

• US Senators Look to Strengthen Ban on Selling Off Oil Stockpiles to China
• Oil Pulls Back to Support

Metals

• Gold Price Forecast: Bull Wedge Breakout and Price Targets
• Silver Discovers Gravity

Global Politics/News

• Homebuilder Stocks Rise After Fed Projects Three Interest Rate Cuts This Year
• Russia Fires 31 Missiles at Kyiv in the First Attack in Weeks as People Scramble for Cover in Subway?

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

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Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: Pennies do not come from heaven. They have to be earned here on earth. – Margaret Thatcher

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Equities: Stocks?climbed Thursday?and added to the previous session's gains, powering the major averages to new record closing levels. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?jumped 269.24 points to close at 39,781.37. The?S&P 500?advanced 16.91 points to end at 5,241.53, while the?Nasdaq 100?edged up 80.27 points to finish at 18,320.38. Thursday’s moves follow a?winning day?on Wall Street that sent the three major indexes to new closing highs, with the S&P 500 breaking above 5,200 for the first time. Those gains came as the Federal Reserve reiterated expectations for?three interest rate cuts?this year and kept borrowing costs unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting. While the central bank failed to elaborate on the timing of cuts, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said during a press conference Wednesday that he expects rates to ease as long as the inflation data continues to trend lower. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Crude Oil: Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday, pressured by weaker U.S. gasoline demand data and reports of a United Nations draft resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, unexpectedly declined last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. The fall suggested that gasoline markets, which had underpinned a recent market rally, may have been overbought. Oil prices also were pressured by confirmation that the U.S. drafted a U.N. resolution calling for a ceasefire that would allow the release of 40 Israeli hostages in return for hundreds of Palestinians detained in Israeli jails. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries also prompted investors to trade crude at higher prices, factoring in that the strikes could hit global petroleum supplies. Ukrainian drones have targeted at least seven Russian refineries this month. The attacks have shut down 7%, or around 370,500 barrels per day, of Russian refining capacity. Elsewhere, Germany's economy was likely in recession in the first quarter of 2024 as weak consumption and anemic industrial demand continue to push the recovery further into the future, the central bank said in a regular economic report on Thursday. Also on Thursday, the Bank of England's governor said Britain's economy is "moving in the right direction" for the central bank to start cutting interest rates. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold prices are just modestly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday after scoring strong gains and hitting a record high of $2,225.30, basis April COMEX futures. Silver prices are slightly down after hitting a 3.5-month high overnight. With prices backing well down from their intra-day highs, gold and silver bulls appear tired and in need of a brief pause. Technically, April gold futures prices hit a contract and record high overnight but then backed off sharply to suggest the bulls are near-term exhausted. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Price action has seen an upside “breakout” from a bullish pennant pattern on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract and record high of $2,225.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,100.00. May silver futures prices hit a 3.5-month high early on today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but may now be near-term exhausted. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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