Global Economic Daily - 2/12/2025

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Dow Rises, Nasdaq Slips as Powell Testifies, Key Inflation Data Looms
• European Stocks Close Higher After Trump Imposes Fresh Tariffs

Global Fixed Income

• Treasury Yields Are Higher After Powell Says Fed Doesn’t Need to Rush to Cut Rates
• Bond Yields Climb on Powell’s Wait-and-See Signals

Currencies

• Dollar Holds Onto Losses as Fed’s Powell Stays Patient on Rate Cuts
• EUR/USD Gains as US Dollar Drops Ahead of Fed Powell’s Testimony

Energy

• EIA Raises US Oil Production Forecast for 2025
• Crude Continues to Recover on Tuesday

Metals

• Gold Has a Wild Night in Asia
• Silver Gets Hammered

Global Politics/News

• Fed’s Hammock Says Rates on Hold Until Inflation Ebbs Further
• Ukraine’s Rare Earth Elements Could Help Keep US Military Aid Flowing

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

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Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: Treasure your relationships, not your possesions. – Anthony J. D’Angelo

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Equities: Stocks rose Tuesday. The S&P 500 posted a narrow gain on Tuesday as investors digested cautious commentary from Federal Reserve Chair?Jerome Powell?on interest rates. Concerns remain over the direction of the economy amid U.S. tariffs and the possible escalation of a global trade war. The?S&P 500?added 2.06 points to end at 6,068.50, while the?Nasdaq 100?lost 63.21 points to close at 21,756.73. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?gained 123.24 points, or 0.28%, to 44,593.65. Powell earlier addressed the Senate Banking Committee and signaled the Fed does not need to move quickly to ease monetary policy. Powell’s testimony — which will be followed by his appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday — comes at a volatile time in Washington with President?Donald Trump?favoring tariffs against U.S. trading partners and with?mixed messages?coming from the administration on its approach to the Fed. Trump on Monday signed new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S.?The European Union responded?by saying it would retaliate with levies of its own if the U.S. tacks on tariffs against products from the country bloc. Investors are looking ahead to fresh inflation data in the form of the latest consumer price index report due out Wednesday, while the producer price index will go out on Thursday. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are both above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold and silver prices are a bit lower in Midday U.S. trading Tuesday, but well up from their daily lows. Profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured early on after gold prices touched more record highs overnight. However, the gold bulls stepped in to buy the dip, on some perceived bargain hunting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified on U.S. monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington this morning. Powell made no surprising, markets-moving remarks but the marketplace was somewhat assuaged he did not lean hawkish in his comments. Wednesday Powell will address the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. U.S. stock indexes are mixed to slightly weaker at midday. Some risk aversion has crept back into the marketplace Tuesday. U.S. President Trump warned that tariffs on steel and aluminum “may go higher” after imposing a 25% levy on all imports of the metals starting in March. The European Union was quick to respond, vowing to take firm countermeasures. While he didn’t include exemptions for trading partners, Trump said he may consider a break for Australia. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $73.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.52%. The U.S. data point of the week comes Wednesday with the consumer price index for January, seen up 2.9%, year-on-year. The “core” CPI, which excludes food and energy, is expected to come in up 3.1% annually. Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,800.00. March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.