Global Economic Daily - 1/8/2025

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

·?? Stocks Roiled by Bond Rout Amid Inflation Jitters

·?? European Markets Close Higher; Volvo Cars Ends 9% Higher on Sales Record

Global Fixed Income

·?? 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps After Economic Data Points to Sticky Inflation

·?? Bitcoin Drops Below $98,000 as Treasury Yields Pressure Risk Assets

Currencies

·?? Dollar Advances as Fed Likely to Slow Rate-Cut Pace After US Data

·?? EUR/USD Price Analysis: Pair Remains Under 20-Day SMA, Retreated Towards 1.0370

Energy

·?? Oil CEO John Hess Oil Markets Close to Being Balanced

·?? Crude Continues to Look Upward

Metals

·?? Gold Continues to Reach Higher

·?? Silver Continues to Reach Toward Resistance

Global Politics/News

·?? Wall Street Notches Another Win as Fed’s Barr Clears the Way for Gentler Banking Regulator

·?? Biden Administration Set to Announce ‘Substantial’ Final Weapons Package for Ukraine

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: Reality leaves a lot to the imagination. – John Lennon

Equities: Stocks fell Tuesday as strong economic data raised questions about the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, leading to a spike in Treasury yields. Declines across major tech stocks also dragged the market lower. The?S&P 500?dipped 66.35 points to close at 5,909.03. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?lost 178.20 points and ended at 42,528.36. The?Nasdaq 100?slid 386.46 points to 21,173.04. The major averages traded higher earlier in the day before rolling over. Data released Tuesday by the Institute for Supply Management?reflected faster-than-expected growth?in the U.S. services sector in December, adding to concerns about stickier inflation. Bond yields rose on the data, adding onto the recent climb in yields fueled largely by bets that the incoming administration’s tariff plans could boost inflation. The?10-year Treasury?yield was last up more than 7 basis points at 4.693% and earlier hit an intraday high of 4.699%, its highest level since April. Investors also booked some profits from megacap tech and semiconductor companies after seeing back-to-back gains from the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P both remain below the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold and silver prices are higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, but down from daily highs. The metals were boosted in part on reports of renewed gold purchases by China’s central bank. A firmer U.S. dollar index today did help to push gold and silver prices down from their daily highs. Rising U.S. Treasury yields also somewhat curbed buyer interest in the precious metals today. Reports said China’s central bank increased its gold reserves for a second month in December, by 300,000 ounces, to 73.3 million, suggesting a renewed appetite for the yellow metal after a six-month pause in purchases last year. The U.S. data point of the week is the employment situation report for December on Friday. It’s forecast to show non-payrolls increasing by 160,000. That compares to a gain of 227,000 in the November jobs report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up and trading around $74.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is on the rise and is presently at around 4.7%--the highest level since 2023. Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $2,565.00. March silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. More gains this week would negate the downtrend, however. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $29.145. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold is above the 14, 21 day moving average, while silver remains below.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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