Global Economic Daily - 16/05/2024
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Quote of the Day: Have patience. All things are difficult before they become easy. – Saadi
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Equities: Stocks exploded on Wednesday. The?S&P 500 popped to record highs Wednesday and added to its strong 2024 performances. The major averages were boosted by a lighter-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation report. The broad market index gained 61.47 points, breaking above 5,300 for the first time, to end at 5,308.15. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 273.88 points, to close at 18,596.65. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?climbed 349.89 points ending at 39,908.00. All three major averages closed at records. Year to date, this is the 23rd record close for the S&P 500, the 18th for the Dow and the eighth for the Nasdaq. The?consumer price index rose?0.3% for the month of April, less than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% monthly increase. The gauge increased 3.4% year over year, in line with expectations. Monthly and yearly numbers for core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, were both in line as well. Retail sales remained flat in April. Economists anticipated a 0.4% jump. oth reports boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near future. Fed funds futures trading data now suggests a 75.3% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will ease rates at its September meeting. This is up from Tuesday’s 65.1% chance of a rate cut in the same month. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasurys dipped following the economic reports. The rate on the?10-year note?fell about 10 basis points to 4.344%. The?2-year Treasury?yield was last at 4.726% after sliding roughly 9 basis points. Stocks have been on a tear this year, as expectations for lower Fed rates and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence — and its potential to boost profits — lifted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 is up more than 11% year to date. That said, the broad market index stumbled last month as worries over sticky inflation pressured equities. . TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are back above the 14, 21 day moving average.
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Crude Oil: Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday from a two-month low in the prior session as the market balanced bullish U.S. economic and crude storage data against the International Energy Agency's (IEA) forecast for weaker global oil demand growth. That cut the premium of Brent over WTI to its lowest since March 28. A narrower premium makes it less profitable for energy companies to send vessels to the U.S. to pick up crude cargoes for export. Earlier in the session, the bearish IEA report helped push both benchmarks into technically oversold territory with prices at their lowest since February. On Tuesday, both benchmarks closed at their lowest since March 12. Prices reversed direction after U.S. data showed a bigger-than-expected crude drawdown and lukewarm inflation that fueled expectations of a cut in?interest rates?later this year. U.S. crude inventories last week fell 2.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, much more than the 500,000-barrel draw forecast. The IEA?trimmed its forecast?for 2024 oil demand growth, widening the gap with producer group OPEC in terms of expectations for this year's global demand outlook. OPEC is likely to hold its June 1 oil policy meeting online, four OPEC sources said, rather than in Vienna as currently scheduled. In?Canada, meanwhile, favorable winds are expected to push a major wildfire away from the oil sands city of Fort McMurray, officials said, less than a day after 6,000 people were ordered to leave. Fort McMurray is the hub for Canada's oil sands output. A huge wildfire in 2016 forced the evacuation of 90,000 residents and shut in more than 1 million barrels per day of output. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is below the 14, 21 day moving average.
Metals: Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday following a U.S. inflation report that came in just a bit cooler than expected. A drop in the U.S. dollar index and in U.S. Treasury yields today also worked in favor of the precious metals market bulls. Technically, June gold futures prices hit a three-week high today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,448.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. July silver futures prices hit a four-month high today. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $30.19. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are well above the 14, 21 day moving average.?
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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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