Global Economic Daily - 13/06/2024

Global Economic Daily - 13/06/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

·?? Stock Bull Run Breaks Record on Fed Decision Day

·?? European Stocks Close Higher After U.S. Inflation Data; Fed Decision Due

Global Fixed Income

·?? US Treasury Yields Tumble as Softer CPI Fuels Fed Rate Cut Speculation

·?? 10-Year Treasury Yield Dives Below 4.3% on Slowing Inflation, New Fed Update

Currencies

·?? Fed Meeting and US Inflation Data in Focus as Dollar Pauses for Breath

·?? EUR/USD Forecast: Next on Tap Comes 1.0900 and Above

Energy

·?? U.S. Crude Oil Production Growth Challenges OPEC Control Over Prices

·?? Crude Oil Continues to Recover

Metals

·?? Gold Price Forecast: Faces Resistance After Hitting 50-Day MA

·?? Silver Continues to Look for the Bottom

Global Politics/News

·?? Federal Reserve Sees Some Progress on Inflation but Envisions Just One Rate Cut This Year

·?? Hungary Agrees Not to Veto NATO’s Deepening Support for Ukraine in Exchange for Nonparticipation



?Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

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Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: Each day is the scholar of yesterday. – Publilius Syrus

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Equities: Stocks had another mixed day on Wednesday once again dominated by tech. The?S&P 500?jumped to a record and closed above 5,400 for the first time Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement and May inflation data pointed to easing pricing pressures. The broader market index climbed 45.71 points, closing at 5,421.03, while the?Nasdaq 100?gained 254.99 points, ending at 19,465.18. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs and closed at records on Wednesday. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?slipped 35.21 points to end at 38,712.21. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as was widely expected. The central bank also indicated forward movement has been made on the inflation front, noting, “In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective”. However, the Fed’s latest projections, also released Wednesday, showed the central bank?only sees one rate cut taking place this year. That is down from three expected rate cuts in early 2024. Wednesday’s announcement followed the release of fresh U.S. inflation data, which seemed to suggest a cooling trend. The?consumer price index?was unchanged for the month of May, lower than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% monthly increase. Year over year, the inflation metric increased 3.3%, which also came in below expectations and represented a slowing from the prior 3.4% pace. Monthly and yearly numbers for core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices associated with energy and food, were also lower than anticipated. The cooler-than-expected CPI data spurred a decline in Treasury yields, with the rate on the 10-year note falling as low as 4.25%, its lowest level since April 1. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Crude Oil: Oil settled higher on Wednesday as ongoing tensions in the Middle East lent support to prices, but news that interest rate cuts could start as late as December capped gains, following the Federal Reserve's statement concluding its two-day meeting. Prices had eased more than 2% last week after OPEC and its allies said they would phase out output cuts starting from October. Palestinian militant group Hamas has proposed numerous changes, some unworkable, to a U.S.-backed proposal for a ceasefire with Israel in Gaza, U.S. Secretary of State Antony?Blinken?said on Wednesday, adding that mediators were determined to close the gaps. At a press conference with Qatar's prime minister in Doha, Blinken said some of the counter-proposals from Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, had sought to amend terms that it had accepted in previous talks. The war has yet to materially affect global oil supply, but investors have priced in the risk, boosting crude futures prices. Meanwhile, investors were left disappointed after the?Federal Reserve?pushed out the start of rate cuts to perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a single quarter-percentage-point reduction for the year amid rising estimates for what it will take to keep inflation in check. U.S. consumer price data, published on Wednesday, had reinforced expectations of a?Fed rate cut?in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference later on Wednesday. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, following a U.S. inflation report that came in tame and in turn sunk the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields. Now, precious metals trades are bracing for this afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion. Technically, August gold bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $2,406.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $2,308.70. July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $32.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.


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