Global Economic Daily - 1/30/2025

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Fed Rate Decision, Stock Market Updates: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 Slip, Nvidia Falls as Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged
• Europe Markets Close Higher as Earnings Come Into Focus; Kering Down 6%

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps After Fed Says Inflation is ‘Somewhat Elevated’
• Equities Are Still a Good Investment, Bonds Neutral, Says Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron

Currencies

• US Dollar Firms as Investors Await Fed Interest Rate Decision
• EUR/USD Declines Ahead of Fed Policy Decision

Energy

• EIA Oil Inventory Estimates Suggest Build Season is Upon Us
• Crude Oil Waits for Fed and Inventories

Metals

• Gold Continues to Face Ceiling
• Silver Continues to See Sideways Action

Global Politics/News

• Fed Hold Rates Steady, Says Job Market is ‘Solid’ While Inflation ‘Remains Somewhat Elevated’
• Western Officials Warn Ukraine Over Weapons Procurement Dispute

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: The happiest people seem to be those who have no particular cause for being happy except that they are so. – William Inge

Equities: Stocks have had an up and down week thus far as they were down again midweek. The?S&P 500?slid on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve?left interest rates unchanged?in its first policy decision of the year, while?Nvidia?slipped following a strong session. The broad market index fell 28.39 points to close at 6,039.31, while the?Nasdaq 100?lost 51.58 points to end at 21,411.46. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?shed 136.83 points, or 0.31%, to 44,713.52. Nvidia shares hit their lows of the session after Bloomberg News reported Trump administration officials have discussed curbing chip sales of the company to China following the emergence of the DeepSeek AI model. Shares ended the session down 4%. For the week, the artificial intelligence darling is down more than 13%. The Fed left the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The Fed’s postmeeting statement offered a more cautious view toward sticky inflation, providing investors with an explanation behind Wednesday’s interest rate pause. During a press conference that followed the decision, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he?has had “no contact” with Donald Trump?since the newly inaugurated president told business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week that he would?demand the central bank lower interest rates. The two have had a contentious relationship dating back to Trump’s first term. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are both above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold prices are modestly down and silver solidly up in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, showing no significant price reactions in the immediate aftermath of the Federal Reserve leaving its monetary policy unchanged, as was widely expected. The FOMC statement said the U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized at a lower level and labor conditions remain “solid.” However, the statement said inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” Traders are now awaiting Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference. The marketplace will also closely scrutinize any comments from President Trump immediately following the Fed meeting. Traders see the European Central Bank cutting its main rate at its monetary policy meeting Thursday. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $73.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.585%--up slightly after the FOMC statement. Technically, February gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,826.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,700.00. March silver futures bulls have regained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $29.145. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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