Global Economic Daily - 12/17/2024
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Quote of the Day: People fall forward to success. – Mary Kay Ash
Equities: Stocks were mixed but overall up to start the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index gained 316.40 points to 22,096.66, while the?S&P 500?added 22.99 points, closing at 6,074.08. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?underperformed, losing 110.58 points to end at 43,717.48. The 30-stock Dow fell for an eighth day, marking its longest run of losses since 2018. The move higher in stocks came as the Fed was set to begin a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to cut its benchmark overnight lending rate another quarter point at the conclusion of the meeting on Wednesday. The key for investors will be forward guidance on future policy moves after the Fed began easing policy in September for the first time in four years. The stock market is coming off a sluggish week, when the Dow fell 1.8%. The S&P 500 dipped 0.6% last week, and had retreated in four of the past five sessions before Monday. As if to foreshadow Monday’s all-time high, the Nasdaq outperformed last week, grinding out a gain of 0.3%. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.
Metals: Gold prices are down a bit and silver prices up a bit in quieter midday U.S. trading Monday. The two metals have not strayed too far from unchanged price levels on the day, amid position-squaring ahead of the U.S. data point of the week: the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and then a press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed is widely expected to do a 0.25% interest rate cut. Goldman Sachs no longer sees another Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January and the investment bank expects Powell to deliver that message at this week’s FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference Wednesday afternoon. Bitcoin rose to a record high above $106,000 by ongoing optimism over President-elect Trump’s support for crypto currencies. This element could be pulling away some investor buying interest in the precious metals. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly lower and trading around $70.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.37%. Technically, February gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the December high of $2,761.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,629.70. March silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $33.33. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are back above the 14, 21 day moving average.
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