Global Economic Daily - 12/08/2024
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Quote of the Day: If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other. – Mother Teresa
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Equities: Stocks ticked up Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday's violent rout. The broad market index ended the week just shy of completely reversing its weekly losses. The?S&P 500?advanced 24.85 points to finish at 5,344.16. The?Nasdaq 100?added 99.29 points to close at 18,513.10. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?inched up 51 points to end at 39,497.54. Week to date, the broad market index was just 0.04% lower. During Friday’s session, it had managed to briefly turn positive for the week before losing some of its gains. Meanwhile, the blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq were down on the week by 0.6% and 0.18%, respectively. This week marked the most volatile week of 2024 for the market. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022. Disappointing U.S. payrolls data from the prior week and concerns the Federal Reserve was too late with rate cuts were the main culprits for the selling, along with the unwinding of a popular currency trade by hedge funds. However, the major averages mounted a comeback, with Thursday’s encouraging?weekly jobless claims?number helping alleviate investors’ concerns about the U.S. economy. The?S&P 500?advanced 2.3% on Thursday for its best day since November 2022, while the 30-stock?Dow?surged roughly 683 points. The tech-heavy?Nasdaq Composite?added nearly 2.9%. It is not just equity markets that have had a volatile week. The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 3.70% at one point, only to retake 4% on Thursday.?It traded around 3.94% on Friday. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Both the Dow and S&P are way below the 14, 21 day moving average.
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Crude Oil: Oil prices settled higher on Friday and notched over 3.5% in weekly gains as positive economic data and signals from Fed policymakers that they could cut interest rates as early as September eased demand concerns, while fears of a widening Middle East conflict continue to raise supply risks. Offering support was China's consumer price index, which?rose?last month at a slightly faster than expected rate, statistics bureau data showed. Israeli forces?stepped up airstrikes?across the Gaza Strip on Thursday, killing at least 40 people, Palestinian medics said, in further battles with Hamas-led militants. The killing last week of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah had raised the possibility of?retaliatory strikes?by Iran against Israel, stoking concerns over oil supply from the world's largest producing region. Iran-aligned Houthi militants have also continued?attacks?on international shipping near Yemen in solidarity with Palestinians in?the war between Israel and Hamas. Leaders of the United States, Egypt and Qatar on Thursday called on Israel and Hamas to meet for negotiations on Aug. 15 in order to finalize a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal. Lending further support to prices, Libya's National Oil Corp declared force majeure at its Sharara oilfield from Wednesday, adding that it had gradually reduced the field's output because of protests. However, U.S. oil rigs, an indicator of future production, rose by three to 485 this week. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is below the 14, 21 day moving average.
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Metals: Gold prices are just slightly higher and silver slightly lower in early U.S. trading Friday. The markets are pausing as traders await the next significant fundamental event to drive daily price action. That event could be a geopolitical development over the weekend, or U.S. inflation data out next week, or both. A bigger move in the U.S. stock market today would also likely move the gold and silver markets. Technically, December gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,537.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,350.00. September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $39.355. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold is above the 14, 21 day moving average, while silver is still below.
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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed
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