Global Economic Daily - 10/23/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Stocks Struggle in Late Hours as McDonald’s Slumps
• European Stocks Close Lower as Investors Await Key Earnings; JDE Peet Jumps 16%

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.2% Briefly
• Bonds Slump Globally as Traders Rethink Fed’s Rate Cut Path

Currencies

• Dollar Just Off August High, US Rates and Election in Focus
• EUR/USD Falls Further as IMF Sees a Flat German Growth

Energy

• Oil Gains as China Lifts Crude Import Quota
• Crude Oil Continues to Find Buyers Near the Bottom

Metals

• Gold Continues to Power Higher in Stretched Conditions
• Silver Continues to Skyrocket

Global Politics/News

• IMF Says Global Fight Against Inflation is ‘Almost Won’ but Warns of Rising Risks
• South Korea Warns it Can Send Arms to Ukraine After Reports of North’s Troops in Russia

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: There is nothing permanent except change. – Heraclitus

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Equities: Stocks were overall down for a second day in a row this week. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended Tuesday marginally lower, as investors grappled with persistent concerns about an uptick in interest rates and digested this week’s latest earnings reports. The?S&P 500?ended the session lower by 2.78 points, closing at 5,851.20. It was the broad market index’s first back-to-back loss since early September. The 30-stock?Dow?slid 6.71 points ending at 42,924.89 and posting a second straight losing day. The?Nasdaq 100?outperformed with a gain of 22.18 points to 20,383.65. The?U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield earlier climbed above 4.2% for the first time in about three months before slightly pulling back from that level. Cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials on the path of interest rate cuts has pushed yields higher. Yields have actually increased since the Fed cut by a half point a month ago. Part of that move can be attributed to improving economic data, but some of that increase is due to pessimism the Fed won’t be as aggressive with rate cuts moving forward. So far, roughly one-fifth of companies in the S&P 500 have reported results, with the majority topping earnings estimates. The market has been on a hot streak in October with the S&P 500 reaching a record and stretching its year-to-date gain to beyond 22%. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are still above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold and silver futures prices are solidly up in midday U.S. trading Monday, with gold hitting another record high of $2,758.70, basis December Comex futures, while silver futures hit another 12-year high. Safe-haven bidding and bullish technical charts continue invite traders and investors to the long sides of those markets. One focal point for traders and investors this week is the BRICS meeting (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The Associated Press today said the meeting of the BRICS bloc of developing economies “aims to counterbalance the Western-led world order. And its bloc of members is expanding rapidly. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia joined in January; Turkey, Azerbaijan and Malaysia formally applied, and a number of others expressed a desire to be members.” A main goal of the group is to move away from U.S.-dollar-dominating global commerce, so called “de-dollarization.” This concept is bullish for the safe-haven gold and silver markets. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching around 4.22% and has been on the rise lately. Crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $72.50 a barrel. Technically, December gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,650.00. December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $37.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $32.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are back above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.