Global Economic Daily - 10/16/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Nasdaq Leads Stock Declines as Nvidia, Chip Stocks Sell Off
• European Markets Close Lower as Oil and Gas Dips; ASML Shares Drop 15% After Early Earnings Release

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips as Traders Weigh Economic Outlook
• European and US Bonds Rapidly Diverge as Economic Wedge Widens

Currencies

• US Dollar Holds Gains Despite Soft Data
• EUR/USD Price Patterns: Bleeds Lower Towards First Target for Reversal Pattern

Energy

• Oil Price Slides Amid China Slowdown and Easing Middle East Fears
• Crude Continues to Look Wild

Metals

• Gold Price Forecast: Breaks Out of Bull Flag, Eyes Record Highs
• Silver Continues to See Support Underneath

Global Politics/News

• Fed’s Daly Says Central Bank Likely on Track for More Rate Cuts
• US Warns Israel to Boost Humanitarian Aid Into Gaza or Risk Losing Weapons Funding

Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report Relevant

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

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Quote of the Day: I know not age, nor weariness nor defeat. – Rose Kennedy

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Equities: Stocks tumbled Tuesday, taking a breather from their rally, as traders sifted through the latest corporate earnings reports. The?Dow Jones Industrial Average?lost 324.80 points closing at 42,740.42. The 30-stock average touched a fresh intraday record before sliding. The?S&P 500?slipped 44.59 points to end at 5,815.26, and the?Nasdaq 100?fell 279.22 points to 20,159.83. So far, about 40 S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter results. Of those, 80% have beaten analyst expectations. Wall Street is coming off a winning session that propelled the S&P 500 and Dow to all-time highs. Notably, the Dow added more than 200 points to finish above the 43,000 mark for the first time. Despite Tuesday’s declines, the three major averages are higher on the month and seem on track to overcome a historically volatile season. But Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, says that stocks aren’t out of the woods just yet. However, a strong third-quarter earnings season and robust fundamental backdrop could sustain stocks at their current levels into the year’s end. Sandven’s year-end target for the benchmark is 6,000, which corresponds to a roughly 3% increase. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are still above the 14, 21 day moving average.

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Metals: Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, with buying support coming from a down-tick in U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. dollar index and a sell off in the U.S. stock market on this day. It also appears there has been an up-tick in safe-haven buying of the two precious metals. Reports early this week say Iran sent a message to the U.S. via a third country to say that if Israel’s response to the recent volley of missiles sent by Iran to Israel is limited to a specific target, Iran will not respond. Also, the Washington post reported that Israel told the U.S. it will only attack Iran’s military targets. Crude oil prices are sharply lower today and trading around $70.25 a barrel. However, gold and silver rallied despite the big drop in oil prices today. One reason could be that metals market traders don’t believe Israel or the U.S. would tip their hand and let Iran know, beforehand, which targets Israel would or would not strike. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.045%. Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,708.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,600.00. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are below the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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