Global Economic Daily - 10/14/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY

Global Equities

• Stocks Gain as Wall Street Banks Hit Two-Year High
• Europe Stocks End Choppy Week Higher; UK Economy Returns to Growth in August

Global Fixed Income

• 10-Year Treasury Yield Dips Below 4.1% Friday After Big Jump This Week
• US Flood Catastrophe Bonds Fall Sharply After Hurricane Miltion

Currencies

• Dollar Edges Higher Against Major Currencies as Traders Weigh US Data
• EUR/USD Wobbles in Search for Fresh Fed, ECB Interest Rate Path Cues

Energy

• Biggest Russian Refinery Raises Crude Oil Processing by 4%
• Crude Oil Has Noisy Week

Metals

• Gold Continues to See Buyers on Dips Overall
• Silver Continues to See Buyers Overall

Global Politics/News

• The Federal Reserve May Have Pretty Much Just Hit its 2% Inflation Target
• Ukraine’s Zelenskyy City-Hops Across Europe, Promoting ‘Victory Plan’ to Allies

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: To err is human; to forgive, divine. – Alexander Pope

Equities: Stocks ended an up and down week positively on Friday. The?S&P 500?and?Dow Jones Industrial Average?powered to new highs on Friday and capped off a winning week as banking behemoths ushered in a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season. The broad index gained 34.98 points to end at 5,815.03, while the Dow rallied 409.74 points to finish at 42,863.86. Both averages hit fresh all-time highs and closed at records. The?Nasdaq 100?added 30.21 points to finish at 20,271.91. The major averages also registered a fifth straight week of gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 1.1% each, while the Dow toted a 1.2% gain. Wall Street tends to view the banking sector as a barometer for the health of economy, setting the tone for the remainder of the earnings season. However, Forrest notes they lack the visibility into forward guidance that often impacts the post-earnings stock moves. Stocks also benefited from data that alleviated fears that inflation wasn’t cooling off quickly enough. That included a cooler-than-expected September?producer price index?reading after the?consumer price index?increased slightly more than expected. The findings signaled that the Federal Reserve may in fact attain a soft landing scenario and reach its 2% goal, which Goldman Sachs economists think?upcoming September inflation data?may already show. Central bank policymakers will keep a close eye on additional data, which will shape their course on rates. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Friday, in the immediate aftermath of another U.S. inflation report that came in tame. The just-released U.S. producer price index report for September came in unchanged from August and was seen coming in up 0.1 percent, month-on-month. That compares to up 0.2% in the August report. The September core PPI came in at up 0.2%, which is right in line with market expectations. The PPI numbers leaned friendly for the precious metals market bulls and suggest the Federal Reserve remains on track for two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year. Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. China’s stock markets slumped overnight. The Shanghai Composite lost 6.6%; the CSI 300 fell over 7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also closed lower by 1.7%. China’s National Development and Reform Commission earlier this week sorely disappointed the marketplace with a tepid statement on economic stimulus. Traders and investors await another update on Saturday, when China is expected to announce $283 billion of new stimulus measures, according to a Bloomberg survey. The majority of the funding expected to come from government bonds. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and are trading around $75.25 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 4.077%. Technically, December gold bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,708.70. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,572.50. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart but bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are below the 14, 21 day moving average.

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DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

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